Ok, so it is time for some of you fantasy fanatics to announce your keepers. Who do you retain and who do you release? Who has amazing upside, but is a risky player to retain given your options? Who has just one good year left, but deserves to be kept? We have created a list of our top 25 keepers heading into the 2007 season, intermixed with some questions that we have been asked over the past week. These rankings are based on the ability to keep a player for as long as you want.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson – Not much explaining is needed here, but 2007 Tomlinson owners should be sure to grab L.T.’s back-up in the coming season. Why? Tomlinson has put on some MAJOR miles in his dominate career. If Tomlinson went down, Turner would still produce top 8-10 numbers in SD, so he is a must grab for Tomlinson owners (and reach big-time for him to lock up that rushing attack). If Turner goes elsewhere, he will most likely be a top 8-10RB in 2007 and won’t last past the 2nd-to-early 3rd round.
2. Larry Johnson – Johnson has carried the ball a TON over the past two seasons. This has many fantasy experts concerned, but what people need to remember is that before Larry Johnson rushed the ball 765 in 2006 and 2005, he only rushed the ball 120 in 2004 and only 20 times in 2003. Tomlinson has never carried the ball under 300 times in his six year career and he has rushed the ball 688 times combine for the 2006 and 2005 seasons. That is only a 77 carry difference, and Tomlinson has carried the ball 1,146 more times than L.J. (in the NFL). Johnson isn’t the one fantasy owners should be worried about. Don’t get us wrong, we love L.T. and we think even a monkey would know to draft L.T. #1 overall in any league and format, but it isn’t crazy to think that Tomlinson will eventually miss some games. The point is, don’t worry so much about L.J. missing games, like some experts are predicting… he will dominate for at least a couple more years.
3. Frank Gore – Gore is an absolute fantasy stud under Norv Turner – the only thing that we suggest that Gore owners do is to grab all of the SF back-ups. Maurice Hicks might be elsewhere in ‘07, but if he isn’t, grabbing Michael Robinson and Hicks is advised. The thing is that that Norv Turner system will produce no matter who is in the backfield, kind of like KC’s rushing attack when Holmes was dominating for so many years. Yea, Holmes was a tremendous talent, but it was truly the system that made Holmes as insanely good as he was. Granted, Gore is the most talented back on the 49ers’ roster, but Norv Turner backs always produce great fantasy numbers. Just cover yourself to avoid disaster, grab those back-ups! Gore has had a history of shoulder injuries, it just makes sense to play it safe, especially considering how well a Michael Robinson could do if inserted into that line-up. All that said, we love Gore in 2007.
4. Steven Jackson – It was a tough call putting Jackson at the #4 spot instead of the #3 spot, but we are very high on Gore given that amazing system that he runs in. Jackson should continue to dominate for many years to come, especially now that the Rams’ offensive attack is built around him (unlike those Mike Martz years).
Ask The Experts
Question: Hey Smitt, I’m in a keeper league where players can be signed to 4 year deals or less. It is a contract league where you have $200 to spend each year. If you were me would you rather have Maurice Jones Drew for free for three more years or Steven Jackson for $55 for two more years. If I get Jones Drew, I will in a sense have $55 back to spend so I will have Drew and whomever I get with the cash. Make sense? Thoughts? Thanks. – Stevie, PHI
Answer: Stevie, great question! I would take Jones-Drew and that $55 every time! Odds are, $55 in a $200 cap league will buy you a top flight WR or QB. You may even be able to land a McGahee type (if such a runner is a free agent). I assume you have a decent group of unrestricted free agents available for bid in your league, as contracts run out and those players become available. Use the cash and roll with a 100% free Jones-Drew. The stud rookie was a top 10RB in 2006 – Drew should return to the top 10 in 2007 with tremendous future upside. – Smitty, FFXtreme
5. Willie Parker – Parker went nuts in 2006, rushing for almost 1,500 yards and scoring an insane 16 total TDs. Parker and Westbrook are very close at the five and six spots, but Parker is more than a year younger and has way less miles on his tires. Parker should have 3-4 top years left and should have no problem racking-up at least 1,300 rushing yards and 12+ total TDs in 2007.
6. Brian Westbrook – Westbrook will only be 28 years old come the beginning of the 2007 season, so he still has at least two years left (maybe three) at an elite level. While we don’t project Westbrook to duplicate his 2006 yardage numbers any time soon (1,400+ rushing and 700+ receiving), he should, over the next few seasons, average at least 1,600 or 1,700 total yards. He is always capable of 10-15TDs in any given year. Draft him in the to 6-8 range with confidence in any keeper/dynasty format.
7. Clinton Portis – If Portis gets healthy by the start of the 2007 season, and everything so far suggests that he will, the WAS runner could rush for 1,400 yards and score 12+ TDs in 2007. Considering that Portis will just be turning 26 at the start of the 2007 season, he has a grip of years left as a top 8 running back (or higher).
8. Ronnie Brown – Brown is in a bad situation in Miami. On any other team, Brown would be a top 4RB looking into the future, but Miami has a horrible offense right now and they need to make a lot of changes in order for us to give Brown a bump. Still, all that considered, ranking him #8 still says a lot about his talent.
9. Reggie Bush – Deuce McAllister continues to shine, which hurts Reggie Bush owners, but we think that Bush will dominate this league eventually and that is what these rankings are about… not just next year. Expect Bush to be a top 5 keeper RB entering 2008 and a, still a respectable, top 10RB entering this upcoming 2007 season.
10. Rudi Johnson – Rudi quietly had 1,308 rushing yards and a very respectable 12TDs in 2006, yet, we believe that many will undervalue the Cincy RB again in 2007 drafts. If he falls to the 10-12 range in dynasty/keeper leagues, he will be a bargain.
11. Willis McGahee – Next year, Willis McGahee may just have his best season as a pro. Losman started to pick things up in the final seven games of the 2006 season, tossing for 12TDs in that time. Lee Evans and gang should open up the run and McGahee’s 3.8 yards per carry average from last year should improved to at least a 4.2-4.5. His 990 rushing yards and 6TDs should increase to at least 1,100 and 10.
12. Peyton Manning – Manning could last a long, long time in this league. No QB, not even Palmer, has the upside Manning does. Reggie Wayne is a future top 3WR for years to come and Marvin Harrison still has a couple elite years left and may still have a few more top 15 years left after that. Expect Manning to consistently hit the 32+ TD mark for at least 4 or more seasons to come.
13. Laurence Maroney – Maroney should be the starter in NE next year, but Dillon will most likely hang around for another season to steal some touches. Even so, Maroney is the future of that NE running game and these are keeper/dynasty rankings. He is a bargain at the 13-15 spots, as that would make him a second rounder in 12-team leagues… Maroney a second rounder? Actually, that sounds more like a steal, not a bargain.
14. Maurice Jones-Drew – Drew is probably the most exciting player on this board – he could end up being worthy of a top 8 spot in hindsight, or he could end up not living up to sophomore expectations. Our guess is that the coaches will believe in their gifted rusher and he will explode in 2007. Fred Taylor may return, at least that is what early reports suggest, but we don’t think it will matter much. Drew will get carries.
15. Joseph Addai – Addai is one of the many runners with a lot of upside heading into the future. While most assume that he will start for the Colts right out of the gate in 2007, Rhodes’ strong play in the playoffs thus far concerns us a bit. Still, the team expected big things out of Addai when they drafted him and he has done nothing but produce when his number has been called. Expect him to be a top 10-15RB for years and years, with the upside for more.
16. Chester Taylor – Taylor stepped up big in his first season as a starter, rushing for 1,200+ yards and 6TDs. While those are solid numbers, he only averaged 4.0 yards per carry and slowed down in the final 3 weeks of the season. While those two things do concern us when ranking Taylor this high, the team should improve a lot this off-season giving their rushing attack some more room in 2007.
17. Chad Johnson – No player started off the 2007 season worse than Chad Johnson, but the WR turned it on in a major way late in the year and more than made up for lost time. Johnson is a gifted playmaker, and with Palmer another year healthy, expect the two to connect a ton in 2007 and beyond. Both Johnson and Palmer are considered top 2 at their position for the future.
18. Steve Smith – Smith only played 14 games and was playing hurt for most of the season, yet he still racked up 1,166 yards receiving and 8TDs. That is an off year for Smith. Expect the 27 year old WR to remain a top 3WR for at least 3-4 more years.
19. Larry Fitzgerald – Fitz is as young and as talented as they come. With Leinart on the rise, expect Fitz to cement himself consistently inside the top 3 fantasy WRs for the next 4-5 years (at least).
20. Shaun Alexander – Alexander is a tough player to rank in keeper/dynasty formats. He looked solid in his last playoff game against the Bears, rushing for 108 yards and 2TDs on 26 carries. He seems healthy and back to his old self, but how long can he last? Well, the runner turns 30 just before the season starts, so age is not on his side. Granted 31 is the new 30, meaning elite backs have in fact had dominate seasons at the age of 30, but it is very rare that a runner has a solid season when he enters that year already 31 years old… Priest Holmes, Warrick Dunn and others are prime examples of decline once entering a season at 31 years of age. Draft, keep and trade accordingly in your dynast/keeper leagues.
21. Reggie Wayne – Wayne had 1,310 receiving and 9TDs in 2006, something he should consistently do for at least the next 3-4 years. We expect him to actually average 10-11TDs over the next few years and we expect him to become the #1 Colts’ WR in 2007.
22. Torry Holt – Holt is expected to have off-season knee surgery, but the procedure is expected to be a minor one. Holt is only 27 years old, so he should remain a top 5ish WR for more than a few years.
Ask The Experts
Question: What is more valuable, Torry Holt’s rights or Marques Colston under contract for free for two more years? I have been offered Holt’s rights for my WR Colston. Can Colston do it again next year? Is he the real deal? Is paying for Holt better than owning Colston for free? Thanks. – Jeff, CA
Answer: Holt’s rights in a contract auction league aren’t even close to as valuable as owning Colston for free for two more years. First of all, Colston and Holt are very close in value straight up. Colston has all of the skills and talent to be a top 5WR for years and years to come. Given that you get one of the league’s up and coming WRs for free for two more years vs. paying for a WR that will probably command quite a bit of money… you have the CLEAR advantage here. Stay with it. In a 12-team auction league, Holt will probably cost at least $35-40 in a $200 cap league and at least half that in a $100 league. Nice work getting Colston signed to such a deal, great drafting or trading! – Smitty, FFXtreme
23. Roy Williams – Williams had an outstanding year in 2006, racking up 1,300+ receiving yards and 7TDs. Williams is capable of leading the league in yards and TDs in any given season, but Detroit needs to make sure their passing attack is secure for the future years. We shall see how they address the QB position in the off-season, but Kitna doesn’t have a ton of time left, so they better do something.
24. Carson Palmer – The Cincy QB probably has the most potential of these players in the twenty-range to jump up inside that top 15 above – Look for his stock to rise throughout the off-season as he gets more and more healthy from his ACL reconstruction. He clearly rushed back last season, but somehow stayed on the field.
25. Marques Colston – We love this kid. He has the hands, speed and smarts needed to be a top NFL WR. He should be a steal in some leagues, where so many will doubt his return to the elite in 2007. Draft him as a decent-to-solid #1WR in 2007 and expect at least 1,100 receiving yards and 10TDs.
Worth Mentioning:
* Adrian Peterson / Marshawn Lynch – While Peterson and Lynch are not true keepers, as they are not on fantasy rosters from 2006, it is still important to value them in this feature so that fantasy owners know how valuable their rookie draft picks are. Peterson and Lynch could both be top 20-25 keepers within weeks of the 2007 season.
* Cadillac Williams – The second-year runner was one of the biggest busts in 2006. We still aren’t confident that Caddy can consistently stay healthy at his size, but he still deserves to be in the top 30 overall players entering 2007.
* Terrell Owens – Owens is 33 years old, so he doesn’t have a bulk of years left as a top 10WR, but he is in better shape than most players that are 28-29. We expect Owens to have at least one or two more top 10 seasons, but that isn’t enough to earn a top 25 spot in our dynasty/keeper rankings.
* Deuce McAllister – Even though Deuce could have another solid year in 2007, the Saints’ runner will be turning 29 at the end of next season. Even though he could have a couple more solid years past that, we anticipate that Reggie Bush will eventually steal more and more touches away from him. All things considered, top 25 is just too high for Deuce.
* Andre Johnson – Houston needs to improve their passing attack before Johnson gets a bump, but he does have the talent to be a consistent top 3WR in fantasy football. It is unknown if he will ever get the support needed to get to that level.
* Marvin Harrison – Harrison still has a year or so left as a top 6-8ish fantasy WR, and he could have a couple more top 15 years left past that.
* Drew Brees – The Saints’ QB is the real deal and he is surrounded with a TON of talent. He has an elite group of WRs that are just starting to make a name for themselves and his team’s rushing attack will only get more dominate. Toss in some of the best coaching in the NFL and you have a fantasy stud for years to come.
* Anquan Boldin – The WR is another player that could vault up into the group above – As Leinart improves early in the 2007 season, look for Boldin’s stats to soar.
* Brandon Jacobs – It is very hard to predict this situation in January, but our guess is that the Giants coaching staff will give Jacobs competition, but Jacobs should start unless that player brought in is a stud.
* Michael Turner – Turner has fantasy stud written all over him. All he needs is that shot – we’d say there is a 50/50 chance that the runner is traded out of SD. If he starts elsewhere, he could easily be a top 10RB. Given that the Chargers lost in the playoffs, the team is more likely to change a few things and add a few players. If they had won the Super Bowl, the odds of change this off-season would have been bad.
* DeAngelo Williams – Williams could be a top 12ish RB if given the opportunity, but Foster could again annoy Williams owners in 2007. Williams should transition into the #1 role by mid-season, even if Foster and Williams start off the season splitting carries.
* Tony Romo – Romo is one of our BREAKOUT candidates next year – We are predicting at least top 4QB numbers in only his second year as a starter, so get ready for a ton of Romo-pimping in the coming months.
* Kevin Jones – It is tough to tell how healthy Jones (foot) will be by training camp, so we have to keep him out of the top 25 until we all know more. Look for Detroit to possibly draft a top 6ish college runner in the 2007 NFL Draft as insurance, or at least look for the team to bring in a vet RB as a back-up plan. Calhoun, their rookie runner from last year, is recovering from a torn ACL, so Detroit really is forced to seek out alternatives.
* Cedric Benson – Benson is expected by many to start for the Bears in 2007, but Thomas Jones always steps up when Benson is about to take over. Both of their values will take a dive until one becomes the true starter.
