1. LaDainian Tomlinson (TIER 1A) - The San Diego rusher is by far the best fantasy back in the game - if you should be so lucky to own the #1 overall pick in your draft, just be sure to grab Michael Turner relatively early to ensure you have that year-long fantasy production that head coach Norv Turner can provide (more Turner/Tomlinson combo). While we don’t expect 30TDs out of Tomlinson in 2007, we do expect his receiving stats to increase a ton under his new head coach. HC Norv Turner is an offensive genius when it comes to rushing the football and using the runner out of the backfield, so whatever fantasy points Tomlinson loses in TDs next year, he will likely make up for it in receiving yards. Don’t forget that Tomlinson had 100 receptions for 725 yards and 4TDs in 2003 - we wouldn’t be shocked if Tomlinson ran for 1,700 yards and caught 70-80 balls in 2007 under his new head coach. He should easily hit 20 total TDs on a healthy season, with a shot of getting darn close to 30 if he suits up for all 16 games. Tomlinson has carried the ball a ton in his six seasons (six straight 300+ carry seasons), which is why we continue to beat a dead horse in telling people to grab Michael Turner at almost any cost in 2007 drafts. If Tomlinson misses some games, Michael “The Burner” Turner should instantly produce top 5-7 fantasy RB numbers per start given that he will be running for HC Norv Turner. Yep, you heard me, top 5 fantasy RB numbers! Both Turners are just that good. Now, that said, all of this is as if we think Turner will stay in San Diego in 2007, and really, we don’t. If Michael Turner is traded this off-season to start for another NFL team, he will instantly move inside our top 10 fantasy running backs for the 2007 season.
2. Larry Johnson (TIER 1B) - Johnson carried the rock 416 times in 2006, which is a ton, but we still aren’t sure why everyone thinks Johnson is a lock to get banged up in 2007. Yes, 416 regular season carries is a quite a bit, and typically that can shorten a RBs career by a few years, but last year was Johnson’s first full season as a starter and he had only started 12 NFL games before his 2006 season. His legs should be able to handle that one-time workload. Head coach Herm Edwards has already said that Johnson won’t be abused quite as much in 2007 - Edwards plans on giving Michael Bennett roughly 100 carries… that will keep Johnson fresh and will likely help keep him off the injury report. If healthy, Johnson should be good for 1,700 rushing and 18-20TDs, making him an easy #2 overall pick on draft day.
3. Shaun Alexander (TIER 1B) - It is tough to rank Shaun Alexander. On one hand, he can be looked at as an injury risk and the type of guy that could be on the decline. Then again, you look at his game logs and notice that he rushed for 709 yards in his first 7 games back from injury, which is 101 yards per game. That would end up being a 1,620 yard season on 16 starts. That is outstanding yardage for a guy coming off a break in his foot. He also scored 5TDs in his final five games of the season. The only disappointing thing about Alexander in 2006 was his missed time (six games). We really think that people aren’t looking at the stats on this one, because many fantasy owners, as well as many expert Sites, are ranking Alexander outside the top 3-4RBs. Unless Alexander agrees to once again be on the Madden cover, we see him having a 1,600+ rushing season with at least 15 scores.
4. Steven Jackson (TIER 1B) - Not to take away from Jackson’s 2006 success, but the running back only had 1,109 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs entering week 15. That wouldn’t put him near the top 3RBs. It was the final three games of the season that vaulted Jackson’s value entering this season. Jackson ended up having an insane final three games (one being week 17, which most leagues do not count)… Jackson had 127 rushing and 2TDs in week 15, 150 rushing and 1TD in week 16 and 142 and 3TDs in week 17. Again, being that most leagues do not count week 17, Jackson didn’t have as good a season as one might think. Still, the other way of looking at this is that Jackson ended the season on fire (when it counts) and his 2007 start could look more like his 2006 finish, which would be abusing defenders and racking up huge gains and big-time scores. While I don’t think Jackson will be the second or third best runner in 2007, I do believe that he will once again rushing for 1,500 yards and 12-14TDs in 2007, which will be good enough to land him inside the top five overall.
5. Willie Parker (TIER 2A) - Parker is a beast and is in a great situation. The RB was handed the starting gig for the Steelers in 2006 and he stepped up in a major way. Parker racked up 1,494 rushing yards and 16 total TDs in his first full season as an NFL starter. He had seven 100-yard games and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Despite his fumbling issues last year, he really couldn’t have produced better stats. On top of that, new head coach Mike Tomlin believes in Willie Parker and feels that he is more than just a perimeter-type guy, meaning his fumbling issues last season may have not cost him his goal-line job in 2007. Despite all the upside, it is hard to imagine Parker repeating his 16TDs that he scored last year, but there is no reason to think that the rusher can’t once again run for 1,400 yards and get in the end zone at least 12 times.
6. Brian Westbrook (TIER 2A) - Westbrook had an unbelievable fantasy season last year. He posted 1,217 rushing yards and racked-up 699 receiving yards with 10 total TDs. The most impressive stat was the 1,217 rushing yards, as this is the first time Westbrook has rushed for over 1,000 yards in his career. The only thing we fear with Westbrook is his history of injuries. He was a lock last year to be on the team’s weekly injury report, yet he somehow managed to play in 15 games. The bad part last year was that fantasy owners weren’t sure on numerous occasions if Westy was going to play. He can burn you in such situations. Regardless, Westbrook is far too talented to play the “predict a major injury” game — he is well worth a top 6-8 overall selection on draft day and he is almost a lock for 800/600 and 10TDs.
7. Laurence Maroney (TIER 2B) - Maroney has the chance to be an elite fantasy running back starting with this season. The recent news about his shoulder injury/surgery is a definite concern when looking to draft him in the top 7 overall, but it sounds like he should be fine by the start of the season. If so, he might just rush for 1,300-1,400 yards and score at least 10-12TDs in 2007. Maroney is one of the most exciting keeper/dynasty league players in the game of fantasy football.
8. Rudi Johnson (TIER 2B) - Rudi has been a consistent fantasy runner over the past three seasons, hitting 1,300+ rushing and rushing 12TDs in three straight years. Rudi doesn’t turn 28 until October, so he still has at least a couple more years as a first-round type of talent. Johnson should hit 1,200-1,300 yards on the ground in 2007 and he should have no problem racking up 10-12TDs.
9. Willis McGahee (TIER 2B) - McGahee is ready to prove himself in Baltimore in 2007. While his situation is a bit better, his change in attitude could end up being the difference-maker. McGahee has always had a nose for the end zone, and if McNair and the Ravens can come out of the gates with a solid passing attack, McGahee may see 10-12 TDs in 2007. The back should easily rush for 1,200 yards if he stays healthy.
10. Clinton Portis (TIER 2B) - Portis’ health concerns and the presence of Ladell Betts both cloud the runner’s value heading into 2007. Still, Portis is so young and so talented, you can’t count him out of the first-round in 2007 drafts. If healthy, Portis easily be able to rush for 1,300 yards and scoring 10-12TDs.
11. Joseph Addai (TIER 2B) - Addai is in a great situation this coming year and should prove to be a quality RB in the 11-12 range in 2007 drafts. While sharing carries, it is quite impressive that the rookie hit 1,000 yards and scored 8 total TDs. Now that the keys to the starting job have been handed over to Addai, expect the second-year runner to rush for 1,200 yards, or more, in 2007. He should also hit at least 10 total TDs on the year.
12. Reggie Bush (TIER 2B) - When you really think about it, Reggie Bush had quite an amazing season for a rookie given his situation. With as much as the Saints used running back Deuce McAllister, it is quite impressive that Bush posted 629 rushing yards, 902 receiving yards and 10 total touchdowns. Even with McAllister still in a Saints’ uniform, Bush should be considered a top 12-14 overall pick on draft day. This is great value for Bush, as he could possibly exceed expectations and rack-up close to 1,700 total yards in 2007 and score roughly 10-12TDs.
13. Frank Gore (TIER 2B) - I found it tough ranking Frank Gore here. No, I didn’t have a hard time ranking him this low, I actually found it difficult to rank him this high. I know, I know… some of you are tossing your arms up in the air as you read this, but Frank Gore’s 2006 success had a TON to do with his offensive coordinator Norv Turner. With the coach now in San Diego, I refuse to rank Gore as high as most fantasy Sites are, which seems to be around the 4-6 range. LaMont Jordan was an absolute horse in 2005 under Turner, rushing for 1,025 yards, 563 receiving yards and 11 total TDs. When Turner left for SF in 2006, LaMont proved that his elite fantasy production was strictly due to Turner’s system. I’m not saying Frank Gore isn’t talented, because he is, just like Jordan was (and is)… but I honestly believe that Frank Gore isn’t going to duplicate his 2006 stats this coming season, just as Jordan didn’t replicate his 2005 production in 2006. The truth is, if Frank Gore didn’t just land a four-year contract extension, he wouldn’t even be in my top ten overall - he would have fallen to the 14-15 area. The contract extension changes a lot for Gore and his situation, as it guarantees him a lot more room for error and injury. If Gore can manage to stay healthy in 2007, I think it will be safe to expect 1,100 rushing yards, 150-200 receiving yards and 7-8 total TDs…. that is if Gore can stay healthy, which is something I fear won’t happen. He has a long history of knee and shoulder injuries, which concerns me, but if you can back-up Gore with RB Michael Robinson (and even Hicks if he re-signs), I think it is still a safe move to grab Gore in the 10-13 range in 2007 drafts.
14. Ronnie Brown (TIER 2B) - Inserting Ronnie Brown into these rankings was very difficult. Brown is so very talented, it is amazing he didn’t do better than he did last season. We will be the first to admit that we had predicted huge things for the second-year runner, but Miami could never get their offense going and they were playing quarterback musical chairs all season long. The key to Ronnie Brown’s 2007 success will be directly related to the productivity of the passing attack. If the Dolphins can land David Carr or Trent Green, the team will be closer to setting Brown up for a solid 2007 season. Our favorite QB on Miami’s roster is Cleo Lemon, someone we think can really start in the NFL, but it would be nice to see Miami secure that QB position with another solid QB - Green or Carr would give them a lot more stability and would allow them some major flexibility if both Lemon and C-Pep don’t workout. One thing to keep in mind is that Miami hasn’t done a whole lot to improve their offensive line so far this off-season, so if they don’t work on that issue, Brown may not have a chance to exceed those 2007 expectations that some of you are carrying over from last year. If they do take care of the offensive line problems, and if the team secures a solid QB to compete with Culpepper and Lemon, Ronnie Brown is a guy that will have great draft value in 2007, as you can likely draft him in the 12-14 range and he may just produce like a top 7-8 guy.
What If Insert Michael Turner: With all of the recent news on Michael Turner’s possible departure from San Diego, we thought it was important to project his placement in this set of rankings if he does get traded to start for another team in 2007. The Titans, Bills, Cowboys and Jets are all thought to be the top four teams looking to acquire Tomlinson’s back-up. According to league sources, at least one or two of the interested teams are willing to give up a first-round pick for the RB, but it appears San Diego still wants the first and the third. The Packers and Giants are also thought to have some interest in Turner. Bottom line, there is a ton of interest in the running back and we think SD head coach Norv Turner wants to get something for his back-up runner before he loses him for nothing next season. He is such a believer in his system, Norv will probably make a trade to better his newly acquired team and he will most likely address the back-up RB position later in the draft. If this happens, Michael “The Burner” Turner would be ranked right around the number 12-14 range in any of our rankings (with the potential for more). As a starter, and his production will depend where he lands, Turner could spit out 1,300 rushing yards with 10-12 scores in 2007.
15. Chester Taylor (TIER 3A) - In his first full season as a starting running back, Chester Taylor ran the ball for 1,216 yards and 6TDs. The recent news suggesting that Taylor could be losing some carries in 2007 is a bit of a concern, but our guess is that Vikings’ head coach Brad Childress is merely suggesting that he plans to keep Taylor fresh and healthy in 2007. Taylor owners can expect the back to rack-up roughly 1,100 rushing yards and 7-8 total TDs.
16. Maurice Jones-Drew (TIER 4) - Jones-Drew is another tough guy to rank this year, as RB Fred Taylor is back with the team and got his hands on a contract extension that is sure to guarantee him some major playing time. Still, Jones-Drew was so productive in his 166 carries as a rookie (5.7 yards per carry), he is worth grabbing around the 16-range for running backs in 2007. Fred Taylor isn’t exactly a lock to remain healthy, so expect Jones-Drew to get at least 180-200 carries in 2007. Expecting a duplication in the touchdown department is asking a little too much if you ask me, but 8TDs or so is not out of the question for Drew next season.
17. Cedric Benson (TIER 4) - Benson needs to stay healthy, but we question if that can happen. If it does, he should be better than the two names above him and he is capable of 1,200+ rushing yards and 10TDs or so. It all rides on his health.
18. Thomas Jones (TIER 4) - Jones could have amazing value this season now that he is with the Jets. If the Jets don’t draft a big name rookie, expect Jones to have at least 1,200 yards in 2007. He is capable of scoring between 6-8TDs in that Jets offense.
19. Adrian Peterson (TIER 4) - Peterson is going to be an absolute stud in the NFL. His instant success depends a lot on where he lands in the 2007 NFL Draft, but if he lands with a team as their clear starter, expect him to move up into our top 14-15 range even as a rookie. In the right situation, the runner could rush for 1,100 yards and score 10+ TDs. The only reason Peterson is this low is because we can’t predict where he will be taken in the 2007 draft. Cleveland is actually a decent-to-solid situation… they are improving their offensive line a lot this off-season and Jamal Lewis shouldn’t be considered a threat for carries past week three or four. Peterson is a future top 5 overall pick, possibly as soon as next year.
20. Travis Henry (TIER 4) - While most fantasy owners were excited about Henry landing in Denver, we aren’t so sure that the move will workout for fantasy owners on the year. Shanahan hasn’t stuck with one rusher for years now, and don’t expect him to start. Henry may kickoff the season with a bang, but expect Shanny to change things up at the first sign of struggle or injury. Given Henry’s history of fumbling, putting the ball on the ground a couple of times could be his ticket out of the line-up at some point in 2007. Is it possible Henry starts all year? Yes, he looked solid last year for the Titans and proved that he still has some gas in the tank, but I just firmly believe that you will see a RB change at some point near the middle of the season. If Shanahan doesn’t add a solid-type free agent rusher by mid-season, and if he doesn’t draft a productive rookie prospect in this year’s NFL Draft, then and only then will you see Henry climb in our rankings.
- Cadillac Williams is probably a guy most of you are thinking I forgot to list, but leaving him out of the top 20RBs for the 2007 season was no mistake. While I think Caddy will have some very decent draft value in 2007, as you can likely get him in the mid-to-late 3rd round in some cases, he doesn’t belong in the above group. Caddy as your 3rd player? Sure, but just don’t count on him as even a top 24 overall pick.
- Deuce McAllister is another rusher that barely missed the cut. He proved very solid last season, but it is hard to count on him to produce similar numbers as he did last season given his situation in New Orleans. Like Caddy, Deuce is a very good middle third-round selection in larger leagues, but anything earlier is just too early for us.
- Edgerrin James was another back that was close to making that top 20, but until AZ finally commits to the run, we won’t risk our season by taking James as our second player in any league.
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