RB Michael Turner (Potential: Top 10RB) – So far, Michael Turner is our biggest breakout candidate for the upcoming 2007 fantasy season. In fact, I predict that if Turner gets traded this off-season, he will be a top 10RB as early as 2007. Think this is too bold? If so, I recommend that you get your hands on some of Turner’s game film from last year. We have watched his games over and over again, and everything about him screams fantasy-stud. He has incredible speed, tremendous size (5-10, 237 pounds) and has proven to be able to run between the tackles (157 caries, 5.9 YPC). Turner isn’t a raw talent, like so many seem to believe… he was a beast in college (leaving school ranked 13th on the NCAA all-time rushing list) and he is about to become a beast in the pros. The current rumors floating around out there suggest that the Titans have offered pick #19 and a 3rd rounder for #30 and Turner. There are also other rumors suggesting that the Bills want the runner pretty bad. We think the odds of Turner NOT getting traded are slim.
In fact, to prove how much I personally believe in the runner, I just made one of the boldest trades I have ever made in an expert dynasty league (’07 FFX Expert Dynasty League). I traded Reggie Bush & Santonio Holmes FOR Michael Turner & Roy Williams. Let me first say that it wasn’t easy trading Reggie Bush in a dynasty league, but given that Roy Williams actually outscored Bush last year in this league’s scoring format and given that I believe Turner will outscore Bush in 2007 (if traded to start), this trade was too good to pass up. This is what FantasyFootballXtreme is all about… mastermind scouting and hardcore-bold moves. We made a similar move in the 2005 Dirty Dozen Expert league, where we traded Randy Moss and Rudi Johnson for a back-up RB named Larry Johnson. Lets just say it wasn’t a popular trade when it went down, but Larry Johnson was a 14th-round keeper and we could tell Johnson’s time was near. Roughly a couple weeks after our trade went through, Larry Johnson was forced into the KC line-up and the rusher went on to start nine straight games… nine games that ended up outscoring both Rudi and Randy’s totals combine on the year. We still own LJ in this league as a 14th round keeper and the move has set us up nicely each and every season. Like I said, this is what FantasyFootballXtreme is all about — as far as this trade that we just made to get Turner, we can’t wait to revisit the topic later in the year.
Vince Young (Potential: Top 5QB) – Young didn’t start in 2006 until week four, but the rookie played extremely well once his number was called. Young is a winner, that is clear, but he will also prove that he is a fantasy football stud-in-the-making. In just 13 starts last season, Young won 8 out of his 13 games… he rushed for 7 touchdowns and ran for an insane 552 rushing yards. Young also threw the ball for 2,199 yards and scored 12 passing touchdowns. So how good can Young get, and more importantly, how quickly can he get there? I predict that Vince Young will pass for 2,900+ yards, he will rush the football for over 600 and he will manage to pass for 20 TDs and run for another 6-7. Those numbers will put him inside the top five fantasy QBs at week 16’s end in most scoring formats. My advice in 2007 is to pass on QBs early and draft two QBs like Vince Young and Tony Romo (see below). These two combine will allow you the flexibility to use your earlier draft picks on RBs and WRs.
Tony Romo (Potential: Top 5QB) – Romo started 10 games last year – he impressed us enough that we have already put him in our top 5QBs for the 2007 season and beyond. If Romo had started all 16 games in 2006, he would have thrown for 4,281 passing yards, had 25.6 touchdowns and would have thrown 16 Ints. Throw in his week five, where Romo played but didn’t start, his yardage would still be in the 4,100-range and his touchdown totals would have increased to 30.5 on the year. Every time Romo was in the game as the Cowboys’ starter, he averaged 260 yards per game passing and scored 1.9TDs. Romo and Young could both end up being this year’s Carson Palmer (the year we predicted Palmer’s breakout). Both QBs will likely remain inside our top 5 all off-season/in-season long, yet you can get them in middle rounds of your 2007 drafts. Take advantage!
Marion Barber III (Potential: Top 15RB) – Barber, who scored 16 total TDs last season, is an interesting fantasy prospect entering the 2007 year. Even with Julius Jones still in the mix for carries next year, Barber’s 2006 success should set him up for more than 50% of the carries right out of the gates. He has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of about 47 in redraft leagues and 40 in keeper leagues. Barber is the kinda guy that could really outperform that kind of draft position. Now, his value could change drastically if the team changes directions with their rushing attack, but last month GM Jerry Jones came out and said that he doesn’t plan on changing anything when it comes to the running game. Stay on top of your ADPs just before your draft(s), this way you know when you are reaching and when you are holding back too long for such players as Marion Barber.
Santana Moss(Potential: Top 6-7WR) – Santana has already been an elite WR in two out of the last four fantasy sesasons, but because his current ADP is in the 70s, he could be a HUGE sleeper WR in 2007. The Redskins had some major quarterback problems last year, but Jason Campbell got a chance to finish out the season and gained a decent amount of starting experience. Expect Campbell and Moss to have a much improved rapport entering 2007 and expect Moss to bounce-back in a major. It isn’t crazy to think Moss will once again rejoin the top 10 fantasy WRs at week 16’s end.
Adrian Peterson(Potential: Top 12-14RB) – Adrian Peterson may just be the most complete back to come out of college since LaDainian Tomlinson. He has size, power and 4.38-type speed. He has been tagged as an injury concern by many, but frankly, his injuries were all kind of freakish (clavicle, shoulder, ankle). Plus, I’m pretty sure you can’t be labeled an injury concern when you play three seasons of college football and run for over 1,000 yards and 12TDs in every single one of them. Peterson is ready to turn heads in the NFL and I think the head turning will start immediately. Peterson will be so outstanding in his rookie year, I truly believe that he will be a top 5-7 overall pick in 2008.
Ask The Experts |
Question : Smitt, love the Site, you guys are 365 and it’s sick. My question is about rb A. Peterson. I have been offered the valuable #1 pick in my league’s rookie draft this year for my player (Joseph Addai). This is a dynasty type of league, so both players can really be kept for as long as we see fit. Should I take this trade and land the upside rook or should I hold onto Addai? Is Peterson going to pay off enough to give up Addai and his upside? Thanks in advance! Keep up the writing!- JD, Minnesota Answer: JD, thanks for the question. I would take Adrian Peterson over Joseph Addai in a heart beat. Peterson is the real deal and has the ability to be the best fantasy back in the game within just a couple seasons. Now, there is always risk involved in making moves like this one so early, and there is even a chance that Addai outscores Peterson in 2007, but the long-term upside is heavily on the side of Adrian Peterson… we think he may just be the next LaDainian Tomlinson.
Smitty, FantasyFootballXtreme.com |
Travis Henry – So many fantasy owners were leaping out of their office cubicles on the day that the news broke that Travis Henry was a Denver Bronco, but we aren’t so sure this was a good move for Henry owners. Granted, signing as a starter was better than being a free agent, but Henry would have helped fantasy owners much more if he had stayed in Tennessee in 2007. Henry was very productive in a Titans’ uniform and would have probably had almost zero competition for starting carries in the 2007 season if he ended up staying in Tennessee, but now in Denver, Henry has Shanahan looking over his shoulder. Shanahan hasn’t stuck with just one runner for an entire season for quite some time – He now plays musical chairs with the position and we don’t think that will change any time soon. Rumors have already surfaced suggesting that Shanahan is interested in trading for another back, or at least drafting one… While they are just rumors, it reminds you what Shanny is capable of. My prediction is that Travis Henry starts off the season with solid production, but by week eight or so, he may just be replaced (or will be sharing carries at the very least). Of course anything can happen, but my gut tells me that Henry’s value could take a major hit even before the season starts. Remember, the NFL Draft is approaching… I wouldn’t be shocked if Denver invested in Michael Bush, the exact type of runner Shanahan likes to invest in. That kind of threat would be devastating to Henry owners. Here is recent news, as of today, suggesting that Mike Bell would likely get 5-8 carries per game if the season started today.
Jamal Lewis – Lewis is a potential bust right now because the Browns seem to be the leading candidate to draft rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. If Cleveland takes the rookie, Lewis will lose his starting job by week 3 or 4 (if not by week one). Lewis, surprisingly, didn’t have as awful of a 2006 season as one might think, as he ran for 1,132 rushing yards and scored 9TDs. Then you look at his 3.6 yards per carry average and you realize that he should have produced a lot better stats than he did. This either means that the Ravens’ offensive line is worse than we thought, or Willis McGahee is about to have a big year. My guess is that the line was fine and McGahee has the ability to score a lot of fantasy points in 2007. Stay away from Lewis unless you can land him after the 4th round, and after guys like LaMont Jordan. Of course, once the NFL Draft is over, this situation will need to be re-evaluated.
Ahman Green – Houston is another team that might address the running back position in the 2007 NFL Draft. With that possible threat to his value, and given his injury history, I don’t believe Ahman Green will live up to expectations in 2007. Granted if Houston doesn’t draft or sign a big name runner, we will raise Green a bit in our redraft rankings, but for now we are going to guess that he will disappoint in 2007. We wouldn’t advise drafting the former Green Bay running back until after the 4/5th-round-range, or at least when all of the Jamal Lewis and DeAngelo Williams-types are gone.
