Probably one of the most debated topics this off-season is: Who do you take with the #2 overall pick in your 2007 fantasy football draft, Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson?
Steven Jackson finished the 2006 season sizzling hot. His final fantasy numbers ended up being a phenomenal 1,528 rushing yards, 90 receptions for 806 receiving yards and an amazing 16 total TDs. In a standard (no PPR) league, that is about 329 fantasy points on 17 weeks. This kind of production down the stretch (when it counts most) helped a lot of fantasy owners win their 2006 leagues, and it sure could be a sign of things to come.
While those numbers (1,528/806/16TDs) are absolutely amazing, it is important to note that 142 of those rushing yards and 4 of those total TDs came in week 17, a week that almost no fantasy league plays. And while his numbers are still amazing on just 16 weeks (1,386/782/12TDs), 379 of those total yards and 4 of those 12TDs (from weeks 1-16) came in weeks 15 and 16 alone, both which were against the 6th and 8th worst rushing defenses in the NFL (2006).
Steven Jackson’s Final (3) Games: Week 15 (@OAK): 127/2TD and 0/0TD Week 16 (vs. WAS): 150/1TD and 102/1TD Week 17 (@MIN): 142/3TDs and 24/1TD
Look, I’m not saying to take out some of Jackson’s stats and on only include certain portions, that isn’t how it works, but it is important to note that before week 15 began, Jackson was only on a 16-week pace for 1,267 rushing yards and 9 total TDs (but still would have had over 700 rec yards). Jackson’s final three games (weeks 15-17) ended up accounting for over 31% of his entire fantasy total on the year (17 weeks). The question to ask is this: Was Jackson’s 2006 fantasy finish a sign of things to come, or was it all a product of good match-ups, situations and more? Before I answer this question, lets now talk about Larry Johnson
Now, Johnson has carried the ball a TON over the past two seasons. This has many fantasy experts concerned, but what people need to remember is that before Larry Johnson rushed the ball 765 combine times in 2006 and 2005, he only rushed the ball 120 times total in 2004, and only 20 times in 2003. Why people are freaking out about his 2006 workload is beyond me! LaDainian Tomlinson has never carried the ball under 300 times in his six-year career and he has rushed the ball 688 times combine for the 2006 and 2005 seasons… yet, it is LJ’s one-time workload (416 carries) that is being tagged as the career-killer? There is only a 77-carry difference between L.J. and L.T. over the past two seasons.
I only bring up LT to prove that LJ isn’t at risk because of one overworked season. The truth is, Johnson has only one full season as a starter on his resume, and before that, Johnson started just 12 other games in the NFL. His wheels are fresh and if LJ gets hurt in 2007, it won’t be because he ran the ball 416 times the year prior. In fact, given Steven Jackson’s 90 receptions in 2006, the Rams’ runner touched the ball only 21 times less than Larry Johnson on the season! Yea, that’s what I said, just 21 times, yet no one is talking about that.
Obviously I just touched on Johnson’s 416-carry season. Even more obvious, I don’t care about his 2006 workload. LJ’s diminishing offensive line is what concerns me most. In just two seasons, the K.C. runner has lost two of his best offensive linemen - that aging line isn’t near as mobile as it was back in the 2000-2005 days. Johnson proved this last year, as he started the season off pretty slow. He rushed for under 70 yards in three of his first 5 games and had a 3.4 YPC average through week 5. He didn’t score a touchdown until week 3, something fantasy owners were not expecting given his 1.9TDs per-start in 2006. His line won’t be as good this year, plain and simple. How much will that affect his fantasy production in 2007? That question is about as hard to answer as the question we just asked about Jackson and the meaning behind his final three games of the 2006 season.
In conclusion, I feel that both Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson have earned consideration to be selected #2 overall in all leagues and formats heading into the 2007 fantasy season. That said, if forced to pick between the two, I take Johnson every time. Johnson has done nothing but prove doubters wrong, as he scored 16TDs in 15 fantasy starts in 2006 and was one of fantasy football’s top 3RBs in 2005 (on just 9 starts). Yes, LJ carried the ball 416 times last season, but Steven Jackson was abused in the passing game to the tune of 90 receptions, thus putting him at a grand total of 436 touches vs. Johnson’s 457 (difference of 21). With that info, there is no way I’m accepting the “overworked theory” for Larry Johnson in 2007. If I accepted it for Johnson, I’d be forced to feel the same exact way about Jackson. Good thing I don’t believe that either was overworked to the point of injury.
Loading ...
Loading ...