Michael Turner: Why He Is Worth A 5th Round Pick (Redraft)
While on our
forums, we have received mixed reactions to our bold 5th-round selection of
Michael Turner at pick 49 in the
2007 Junkyard Brawl Expert Mock.
Note: It is a redraft-style
mock draft with some of the best fantasy Sites on the Web, like:
Footballguys.com (Clayton Gray), SportsGrumblings.Com (Greg Kellogg), FantasySharks.com (Greg Allen), FantasySharks.com (Greg Allen) and many more.
Our first 5 picks were as follows:
1.01 – LaDainian Tomlinson
2.12 – Reggie Wayne
3.01 – Larry Fitzgerald
4.12 – Jamal Lewis
5.01 – Michael Turner
5.04 – Michael Turner: Now, a lot of users on our
forums liked the pick, as we have
LaDainian Tomlinson and this clearly locks up the best fantasy RB situation in 2007, but some of our users thought the pick was too early. Here is the thing… bold moves win leagues and this is one of those moves.
First off, let me address something about
LaDainian Tomlinson, and at the same time answer some questions about our 5th-round selection of
Michael Turner. Many fantasy owners are claiming that
LaDainian Tomlinson cannot repeat his 2006 numbers this year. The most common thing that people say on the topic is,
Tomlinson can’t score 30TDs again.
Well, let me tell you this… I firmly believe that
Tomlinson can duplicate his 2006 fantasy totals, even if he scores less touchdowns… that is if he stays healthy, something will also address in a minute. Norv Turner, San Diego’s new head coach, makes RBs into studs, and while
LT can’t really get any better, bringing in Norv Turner as head coach in SD almost guarantees that
LT doesn’t get worse.
It is no secret that HC Norv Turner abuses his rushers, so
LT is going to see the touches that he needs to repeat last year’s numbers. While he won’t likely score 30TDs again, what he loses in TDs he will more than make up for in increased yardage. Norv Turner is an offensive guru and he will work
Tomlinson into the ground, especially in the passing game. The Chargers’ rusher had a 100 reception season back in 2003, so don’t think for a second that his receiving stats couldn’t get better than last year’s 56/508/3… under HC Norv Turner, it can happen.
Now, I say all of that up above assuming that
LT will stay healthy, which leads us into our selecting of
Michael Turner #49 overall in a
redraft mock).
Tomlinson has carried the ball 300+ times for six-straight seasons, and the fact that HC Norv Turner runs the ball so much in his tremendously productive offenses, I think this might finally be that year that fantasy football’s best player is forced to take a seat for at least a game or two.
Now, there is no way to predict injury, and certainly it is possible that
Tomlinson can once again roll through a season with virtually no missed time, but the odds are stacked against it (given his workload)
Turner, an already talented runner, may just get his number called a couple times in 2007… and what a stage he will be on. His 2008 NFL free agency value will grow with every carry he gets in that Norv Turner rushing attack.
Why The Combo Of Tomlinson/Turner Is So Important In 2007
If you own
Tomlinson and
Turner in 2007, you will likely blow away the league’s second best RB by over 100 fantasy points.
Similar Situation In 2005
I said the same thing about
LJ/Holmes the year I selected
LJ in the
4th round in this exact league we are mocking in (
Junkyard Brawl)… and everyone was shocked that I took a “back-up” RB so early. Well, that back-up runner ended up being top 3 in RB scoring that year (2005) on just 9 starts (averaging 1.9TDs per start). Here is what that draft looked like:
Round ONE | 2005 Expert Draft
1.01 1. AskTheCommish Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
1.02 2. 411fantasyfootball Manning, Peyton IND QB
1.03 3. FantasyFootballTimes Alexander, Shaun SEA RB
1.04 4. NotJustAGame Lewis, Jamal BAL RB
1.05 5. GridironGrumblings Culpepper, Daunte MIA QB
1.06 6. FantasyFootballXtreme Holmes, Priest KCC RB
1.07 7. GrogansFantasyFootball Dillon, Corey NEP RB
1.08 8. FantasyFootballer James, Edgerrin ARI RB
1.09 9. HuddleGeeks McGahee, Willis BUF RB Sat
1.10 10. FantasyFootballXtreme McAllister, Deuce NOS RB
1.11 11. 411fantasyfootball Moss, Randy OAK WR
1.12 12. MoSneaky Davis, Domanick HOU RB
Round TWO | 2005 Expert Draft
2.01 13. MoSneaky Johnson, Rudi CIN RB
2.02 14. JunkyardJake Jones, Kevin DET RB
2.03 15. RotoWorld Jones, Julius DAL RB
2.04 16. HuddleGeeks Portis, Clinton WAS RB
2.05 17. FantasyFootballer Barber, Tiki NYG RB
2.06 18. GrogansFantasyFootball Green, Ahman GBP RB
2.07 19. RotoWorld Jordan, Lamont OAK RB
2.08 20. GridironGrumblings Martin, Curtis NYJ RB
2.09 21. NotJustAGame Jackson, Steven STL RB
2.10 22. FantasyFootballTimes Johnson, Chad CIN WR
2.11 23. JunkyardJake Holt, Torry STL WR
2.12 24. AskTheCommish McNabb, Donovan PHI QB
Round THREE | 2005 Expert Draft
3.01 25. AskTheCommish Harrison, Marvin IND WR
3.02 26. 411fantasyfootball Owens, Terrell DAL WR
3.03 27. FantasyFootballTimes Williams, Carnell TBB RB
3.04 28. NotJustAGame Vick, Michael ATL QB
3.05 29. GridironGrumblings Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
3.06 30. RotoWorld Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE
3.07 31. GrogansFantasyFootball Walker, Javon GBP WR
3.08 32. FantasyFootballer Horn, Joe NOS WR
3.09 33. HuddleGeeks Wayne, Reggie IND WR
3.10 34. RotoWorld Johnson, Andre HOU WR
3.11 35. JunkyardJake Bell, Tatum DEN RB
3.12 36. MoSneaky Jackson, Darrell SEA WR M
Round FOUR | 2005 Expert Draft
4.01 37. MoSneaky Gates, Antonio SDC TE
4.02 38. 411fantasyfootball Bennett, Michael NOS RB
4.03 39. RotoWorld Collins, Kerry FA QB
4.04 40. HuddleGeeks Green, Trent KCC QB
4.05 41. FantasyFootballer Ward, Hines PIT WR
4.06 42. GrogansFantasyFootball Bulger, Marc STL QB
4.07 43. FantasyFootballXtreme Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
4.08 44. GridironGrumblings Brown, Chris TEN RB
4.09 45. NotJustAGame Porter, Jerry OAK WR
4.10 46. FantasyFootballTimes Smith, Steve CAR WR
4.11 47. FantasyFootballXtreme Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Mon Jun 20 9:11:58 p.m. ET 2005
Commentary on June 20, 2005 – It’s early, but this has to be done as he is rising on this dang pre-draft list. Holmes/LJ will end up being the #1 rb this year per start, no overlap games! There are a few guys that could have helped my line-up, but Holmes/McAllister/Ronnie Brown with LJ wins this league, assuming i get what i know ill get in sleepers.
In that same draft:
5.11 59. FantasyFootballXtreme Palmer, Carson CIN QB | Tue Jun 21 12:26:11 p.m. ET 2005
We got ripped apart in expert analysis after this draft for drafting LJ in the 4th and Palmer in the 5th. Both of those guys ended up being top 3 at their position.
Back On Point
So, my point is that
Turner is an Xtreme sleeper this year… I can feel it. When I feel it, I go with it, as you can tell from both
LJ/Palmer moves up above. We have a track record for landing bold sleepers here at FFX, as those of you that have been with us since 2005 know. We recommended that everyone take both
LJ and
Palmer in the 5-6th round-range back in 2005 drafts, and for those that listened, you were likely victorious in your 2005 fantasy season.
Turner is our 2007 version of
LJ and we plan on taking him in every
Expert League that we do (and ahead of his ADP to ensure we lock down this difference-maker).
More Bold Moves in 2007 | Expert Dynasty League
We just pulled off a great trade for our
2007 FFX Dynasty League (2) squad.
FantasySharks.com will gives up:
Palmer, Carson CIN QB
Colston, Marques NOS WR
FantasyFootballXtreme.com gives up:
McNabb, Donovan PHI QB
Barber, Marion DAL RB
Jackson, Brandon GBP RB
FFXtreme Roster After Trade
QBs: Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub
RBs: Larry Johnson, Ronnie Brown, Michael Turner, Kenny Irons, others
WRs: Marques Colston, Braylon Edwards, Santana Moss, others
TEs: Vernon Davis, Owen Daniels
Given that we start 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, we love rolling with this line-up entering the 2007 season:
Carson Palmer
Larry Johnson
Ronnie Brown
Marques Colston
Braylon Edwards
Santana Moss
Vernon Davis
Obviously it hurts to lose RB depth, but with
Ronnie Brown sitting in our RB2 spot, our line-up went up WAY TOO MUCH to pass up on this trade.
Palmer is a much better dynasty QB than
McNabb, given
McNabb’s injury history and situation, and
Colston fills an almost empty WR spot for us, as we just had two real starters (
Santana and
Edwards) heading into the off-season.
Colston is a solid #1WR in 2007 and beyond. We love the move, even though this is a dynasty league and many love the upside of all three players we gave up (
Donovan McNabb/Marion Barber/Brandon Jackson). You can comment on this trade in forums, we made a
thread just for this trade.
In Closing
Bold moves don’t always end up working out, and you should
NOT take risks at every turn in your fantasy leagues… that said, don’t be afraid to go with your gut when you know down deep a player is going to deliver. Fantasy Football is all about having fun and enjoying your decisions. The bad ones stuck, no doubt, but when you land that future stud in a dynasty league, or draft that super sleeper in a redraft league, it makes fantasy football the best activity on the planet. It can also win leagues.
