Larry Johnson #2 OverallOk, so everyone knows that LaDainian Tomlinson is the consensus #1 overall pick in all 2007 drafts/formats. The tough decision comes when on the clock with the number 2 pick. Who do you take? The answer is Larry Johnson! All I keep hearing about as of late is how Larry Johnson carried the ball 416 times last year. Well, like I’ve said over and over on our fantasy football forums, Johnson touched the ball just 21 more times than Steven Jackson last year during the regular season (and had just 13 carries and 5 receptions in the 2006 playoffs). Jackson caught the ball 90 times in 2006, and correct me if I’m wrong, but you get tackled when you catch the ball out of the backfield! I am not saying that Jackson is headed for injury in 2007, but if you think Jackson will hold up after his 2007 outing, it is pretty hard to argue that LJ wont (a runner with just one full season as a starter on his resume). Johnson is no more of an injury threat than Steven Jackson, unless he holds out well into the preseason, which is possible, but doubtful (something I’ll touch on below). Looking At The Facts
Pros- Johnson has scored 40TDs over the last two seasons, and he only started 9 games in 2005 - LJ has rushed for over 1,750 yards in each of his last two seasons, again with only 9 starts in 2005 - Johnson is averaging 125.6 yards rushing and 27.4 receiving yards per start so far in his career, which is 153 total yards per start in 25 straight games (which is insane!) - Johnson is averaging 1.6TDs per start in his 25 starts with the Chiefs, which means he should score 25.6TDs next year based off that average - LJ touched the ball just 21 times more than Jackson in the 2006 regular season - Johnson hasn’t missed a start since taking over for Holmes in 2005 - The runner has always delivered, just look at the statsCons- Johnson is talking about holding out during training camp in order to get the big contract that he wants - It is looking like Johnson will have a young Brady Croyle under center in 2007, which could lead to less goal line opportunities - The K.C. offensive line is diminishing each and every year and it isn’t getting any younger eitherConclusionMy argument isn’t that Jackson isn’t worthy of some respect heading in 2007, and I’m not saying that he will fail fantasy owners either… my point is that Johnson, despite a few cons, has done nothing but deliver. To average over 150 yards per start in 25 straight starts, I just don’t see the logic in doubting him at this point. He is tough, doesn’t miss games and the threat of a hold out is almost a joke these days. I would ride my season on Johnson not following through with a long-term hold out. And, yea, 416 carries was a ton of carries last year (plus his 13 playoff carries), but again, LJ touched the ball just 21 more times during the fantasy season than Jackson, yet no one seems to be talking about that when they mention LJ as an injury concern due to his ‘06 touches. I firmly believe that Larry Johnson will rush for 1,500+ yards, catch at least 50 passes for 500 yards and will score at least 17 total TDs in 2007. Larry Johnson (27 years-old) is easily my #2 overall pick in all leagues and formats until he falters, which he has shown no signs of doing in his 1.5 seasons as an NFL starter. He has a ton of miles left, do not listen to the wave of doubt striking your browser on a weekly basis! |
Steven Jackson #2 OverallIntroductionSteven Jackson had a breakout fantasy year in 2006 for the Rams. The 1520 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs would have been enough to put him near the top of the RB food chain, but tacking on his 90 catches for 800 yards and 3 TDs made him an absolute beast, easily putting he and LJ alone in a clear 2nd tier of fantasy RBs. When pick #2 rolls around in 2007 (and LT is gone) it will be important to not only maximize point production but also minimize risk, as making a mistake there can be crucial to your overall fantasy success. Let’s see your choices at that point in the draft: SJaxThe Rams’ running back is coming off a monster 2006 season and his offense seems to be improved with the additions of Bennett and McMichael. No injuries to note, same team, same QB, same WRs…all things are similar. He is starting to enter his prime as a RB as well. Yeah, maybe Bennett and McMichael steal some touches, but the O should be better giving him even more scoring opportunities. Huge potential + minimal risk = clear #2 pick. Larry JohnsonHmm, let’s see. Potential new QB (neither Croyle nor Huard is anything special), deteriorating O line and aging WRs (neither Gonzo nor Kennison are getting any better) are all minuses. Oh, this just in, he is telling people he is going to hold out during training camp. SJax and LJ were basically even last year. With all the problems surrounding LJ heading into 2007, this one isn’t even close. Shaun AlexanderAlexander suffered his first serious injury last year and is about to hit the dreaded 30 year-old mark heading into 2007. Seattle O shouldn’t be any better with the loss of DJax to the 49ers. Alexander is still solid, but why take that risk at pick #2? Brian WestbrookYou are joking right? He had a career year in 2006 while being able to stay healthy the entire season and still finished 80+ points behind SJax. With McNabb back, the Eagles will run less and his role will decrease. This isn’t even an option if you ask me. Frank GoreGore’s breakout season in 2006 was a pretty big surprise, and his offense should be better in 2006 with the maturation of A. Smith and the addition of DJax. With that being said, Gore finished 60 points behind SJax last year in his first full season as the starter. With his injury history and lack of consistent production, I’m going to need much more from Gore before I use the #2 pick on him. ConclusionSo there you have it. If you have the #2 pick take RB Steven Jackson and smile. If someone else has the #2 pick and they don’t take SJax, feel free to laugh. |
