After posting the Target Data for WRs for the 2006 fantasy season, we decided to get on the Goal Line Target Data as well. Below are both the top 25WRs for Goal Line Targets and Goal Line TDs.
First off, here are a few interesting observations. It seems that we are back to pimping Chris Chambers. The guy was first in the league with 10 total Goal Line Targets, but way down at #18 in Goal Line TDs. Like I mentioned in the Target Data Article, Chambers has tremendous hands, so his relatively low Goal Line TD stat has everything to do with the quarterback situation in Miami last year. With Trent Green now on the Miami roster, everything is pointing to Chambers being an absolute steal in ‘07 drafts. I’m not saying Trent Green is the answer to all that is wrong in Miami, but Green is sure to help Chambers raise that Goal Line TD stat in ‘07.
The next most interesting aspect of this data was how high both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison were in both targets and TDs. Harrison finished 3rd in Goal Line Targets (8) and 1st in Goal Line TDs (7) and Wayne finished 2nd in Goal Line Targets (9) and tied for 2nd in Goal Line TDs (4). Harrison caught an impressive 87.5% of the Goal Line passes thrown his way. Some WRs caught 1 goal line target out of 1, which is why they aren’t ranked by %, but for Harrison to nab 7 out of 8… that is truly remarkable. It also says a lot about Peyton Manning’s accuracy. It certainly makes you wonder how many more TDs Manning, Harrison and Wayne can post this upcoming season now that defenses will surely be giving more respect to Addai and the Colts’ rushing game. I can picture it now, all the frustrated Addai owners all year long as Manning throws score after score inside the five.
It was also interesting to find Larry Fitzgerald finally show up in some target data (as he was missing from the general Target Data Article). Fitzgerald caught 2 out of the 5 Goal Line passes that were thrown in his direction in 2006, finishing 8th in Goal Line Targets (5) and tied for 7th in Goal Line TDs (2). To me, this suggests that a healthy Larry Fitzgerald should easily finish in the top 5-7 in TDs for WRs in 2007. Will he stay healthy? Well, that is an entirely different matter/article.
Keyshawn Johnson’s 5 Goal Line Targets placed him 4th in the NFL and his 2 Goal Line TDs puts him in that tie for 7th with Larry Fitzgerald and others. This data, as did the general target data, suggests to me that Steve Smith is in for a monster 2007 season. With Johnson gone in ‘07, and with Drew Carter ( 33 total career receptions) and rookie Dwayne Jarrett listed as the Panthers’ #2 and #3 WRs heading into next year, Delhomme is likely to look for Steve Smith more than ever, especially in goal line situations. I expect Steve Smith to once again reach 100 total receptions and I believe he will be in the top 5 in Total Targets, Goal Line Targets and Goal Line TDs.
Other Observations:
Kevin Curtis finished higher than expected on both lists. He was 12th in Goal Line Targets (4) and 6th in Goal Line TDs (3). If McNabb gets healthy, and stays healthy, Curtis may end up proving to be a solid WR3/4 this year. Darrell Jackson was clutch as he caught all 4 of his Goal Line Targets and it was no surprise to find Holt, Driver, Owens and Burress at the top of both top 25 lists.
One thing to keep in mind is that once you get into the 7+ range of either top 25 list, it really becomes hard to analyze. The WRs in that range, from 7 on, are catching 2 and 1 TDs and only saw 2-3 target passes. It is hard to breakdown much at that point (except for in Chambers’ situation), but the data near the top of both the Goal Line Target list and the Goal Line TD list is relatively insightful and helpful.
Goal Line Targets |
||||
Player |
Team |
GL Targets |
Receptions |
Goal Line TDs |
1. Chris Chambers |
MIA |
10 |
1 |
1 |
2. Reggie Wayne |
IND |
9 |
4 |
4 |
3. Marvin Harrison |
IND |
8 |
7 |
7 |
4. Keyshawn Johnson |
CAR |
5 |
2 |
2 |
5. Torry Holt |
STL |
6 |
2 |
2 |
6. Terrell Owens |
DAL |
5 |
3 |
3 |
7. Plaxico Burress |
NYG |
5 |
3 |
3 |
8. Larry Fitzgerald |
ARI |
5 |
2 |
2 |
9. Reggie Brown |
PHI |
5 |
3 |
2 |
10. Marques Colston |
NO |
5 |
1 |
1 |
11. Darrell Jackson |
SEA |
4 |
4 |
4 |
12. Kevin Curtis |
STL |
4 |
3 |
3 |
13. Donald Driver |
GB |
4 |
2 |
2 |
14. Terry Glenn |
DAL |
4 |
1 |
1 |
14. Lee Evans |
BUF |
4 |
1 |
1 |
15. Mike Furrey |
DET |
3 |
2 |
2 |
16. Isaac Bruce |
STL |
3 |
2 |
2 |
17. Travis Taylor |
MIN |
3 |
2 |
2 |
18. Matt Jones |
JAX |
3 |
2 |
2 |
19. Joe Jurevicius |
CLE |
3 |
2 |
2 |
20. Rod Smith |
DEN |
3 |
3 |
1 |
21. Jerricho Cotchery |
NYJ |
3 |
0 |
0 |
22. Andre Johnson |
HOU |
2 |
2 |
2 |
23. Marty Booker |
MIA |
2 |
1 |
1 |
24. Clarence Moore |
BAL |
2 |
1 |
1 |
25. Doug Gabriel |
OAK |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Goal Line TDs |
|||||
Player |
Team |
Targets |
Receptions |
GL TDs |
TD % |
1. Marvin Harrison |
IND |
8 |
7 |
7 |
0.875 |
2. Reggie Wayne |
IND |
9 |
4 |
4 |
0.44444444 |
3. Darrell Jackson |
SEA |
4 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
4. Terrell Owens |
DAL |
5 |
3 |
3 |
0.6 |
5. Plaxico Burress |
NYG |
5 |
3 |
3 |
0.6 |
6. Kevin Curtis |
STL |
4 |
3 |
3 |
0.75 |
7. Keyshawn Johnson |
CAR |
5 |
2 |
2 |
0.4 |
8. Torry Holt |
STL |
6 |
2 |
2 |
0.33333333 |
9. Larry Fitzgerald |
ARI |
5 |
2 |
2 |
0.4 |
10. Reggie Brown |
PHI |
5 |
3 |
2 |
0.6 |
11. Donald Driver |
GB |
4 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
12. Mike Furrey |
DET |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0.66666667 |
13. Isaac Bruce |
STL |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0.66666667 |
14. Travis Taylor |
MIN |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0.66666667 |
15. Matt Jones |
JAX |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0.66666667 |
16. Joe Jurevicius |
CLE |
3 |
2 |
2 |
0.66666667 |
17. Andre Johnson |
HOU |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
18. Chris Chambers |
MIA |
10 |
1 |
1 |
0.1 |
19. Marques Colston |
NO |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0.2 |
20. Terry Glenn |
DAL |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0.25 |
21. Lee Evans |
BUF |
4 |
1 |
1 |
0.25 |
22. Rod Smith |
DEN |
3 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
23. Marty Booker |
MIA |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
24. Clarence Moore |
BAL |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
25. Doug Gabriel |
OAK |
2 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
