Each and every season more than a few players go from rags to riches right before your eyes. We always try and tackle the topic of “sleepers” more than a few times during the off-season, as knowing who is on the rise can often win leagues.
In 2005, we brought fantasy owners Larry Johnson, Carson Palmer and Willie Parker, and last year we told fantasy owners to put their faith in Roy Williams, Reggie Bush and Reggie Brown.
It is almost too early to be sure what sleepers are set to breakout in 2007, but we can certainly dig up a few early candidates based on the current ADPs (average draft positions). Note that I will breakdown the sleepers by different rounds. For example, a guy like Adrian Peterson isn’t exactly an unknown fantasy prospect entering 2007, but that doesn’t mean fantasy owners can’t be sleeping on his value. You will hear all kinds of definitions of the term “sleeper” and many will say “Studs” can’t be sleepers. Well, if some want to limit the term, feel free, but we would rather tackle the term in every possible way and at every possible angle. The three different degrees below will be “Sleepers In Rounds 1-2“, “Sleepers In Rounds 3-5” and “Sleepers In Rounds 6-Plus“. Note, these are just early sleeper candidates – we will bring you another couple updates as we near the 2007 fantasy season.
Fast Willie Parker started 16 games last season, rushing 337 times for 1,494 yards (4.4 YPC, 76 long) and he also ran for 13TDs. The speedy back also caught 31 passes for 222 yards and 3TDs, putting him at a grand total of 16 total TDs in 2007. Parker really moved himself into the elite last year, yet so many are doubting his 2007 value. Now, at his size, even I question his long-term value (at least past two or so more seasons), but how on earth can anyone question this runner’s ability to be a top 5-6 fantasy running back next season? FWP is falling into the 9-12 range in a lot of early drafts, and his ADP is right around 8-9 overall, which is making almost our entire staff scratch our heads.
Adrian Peterson will begin his first season in Minnesota wedged inside a running back rotation, but this is actually good news for two reasons. First of all, rookie runners can often hit that “rookie wall” if they “start” right out of the gate in week one. They just aren’t used to a full 16 game season and they typically breakdown heading into the final 6 weeks of the fantasy year. When a rookie rusher gets eased into the team’s starting role, they can often have a very productive season as a whole and they can tend to be very reliable down the stretch when it counts most. We all witnessed three perfect examples of this last year in Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush and Maurice Jones-Drew. Not one of these rushers started on opening day, and actually, Addai never started one regular season game in 2006… and Jones-Drew lined up just once as Jacksonville’s feature back. Reggie Bush is a different story, as he kind of started a lot of games at the receiver position, but the point here is that all three of these breakout rookies got a ton of rest early in ‘06… and the result was great production when it counted most. If you ask me, landing in Minnesota was a great thing for Peterson’s future in the NFL, and it certainly makes him a bargain come draft day. His current ADP is in the late 4th/early 5th… this will be a steal as we predict that Peterson will be a solid RB2 option by mid-season.
Marques Colston has an ADP right around the beginning of the 4th round. This will end up being a steal at year’s end, as Colston is top 5-7 material and no one seems to believe it. I know… you are saying out loud, what about the Michael Clayton factor? Well, Colston is no Michael Clayton. Even if you thought he was, they are in completely different situations and Colston has Drew Brees tossing him the rock. If people are sleeping on Colston in your fantasy draft and he is there in the early 4th, or even late 3rd, don’t hesitate to add him to your roster.
I know, I know… how can Palmer be considered a sleeper in 2007? Well, the fact remains that Palmer is getting drafted a lot later than Peyton Manning in early fantasy drafts, yet we believe that he will have just as good of a 2007 fantasy season. Palmer is actually dropping into the third-round in some drafts, which is an absolute steal given that Manning is typically going in the first-round. If fantasy owners in your league are sleeping on Palmer in that third round, grab him with a smile!
Thomas Jones is getting no respect right now (when does he ever?), as he is almost a lock to fall into the third-round in 2007 Fantasy Drafts. His ADP is right around the beginning of the third, but he should have no problem finishing as a top 15 running back at week 16’s end. I actually think he will consistently have a cup of coffee with the top ten throughout the season. He has a lot left!
Javon Walker has all the upside of a top 5WR, yet he can be had at the cost of a WR2. He should finally be 100% healthy, as he is now another year removed from knee reconstruction… couple that with the fact that Jay Cutler is about to breakout — it spells breakout year for the Bronco.
Vince Young has an ADP around the 5-6 round range, but in a few recent drafts that we’ve done, he has fallen a bit later than that. A great strategy this year seems to be passing on a QB in the first 4 rounds and then grabbing Vince Young or a Jay Cutler type in the 5-7 range. Both QBs, especially Young, are set to have breakout seasons in 2007.
Ok, this is where it gets fun. RB Michael Turner is what you call a big-time sleeper, as he can be had very late (in rounds 6-9), but could end up producing like no other late-round selection in your entire fantasy draft. Tomlinson, the league’s best rusher, has proven to be one of the most durable runners in the game, but his six-straight seasons of 300+ carries makes him a candidate to miss games in 2007. Is it a lock? Absolutely not, as no one can predict injury, but logic suggests that if any back-up runner in the NFL is capable of being a top 10RB in 2007 (due to an injury to his team’s starter), it is Michael “The Burner” Turner. The rushing game in San Diego in 2007 will be as good as it was last season, as the Chargers have hired a new head coach named Norv Turner. HC Norv Turner is an offensive mastermind, one that turns almost every single runner that he coaches into a fantasy gold mine. Most recent rushers to benefit are Frank Gore (’06), LaMont Jordan (’05)… and the list goes on and on, back to Ricky Williams and even Emmitt Smith. Now, while it is hard to imagine that even this head coach could make that San Diego rushing game any better, we wouldn’t rule out the possibility. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson and RB Michael Turner do not score over 30 total TDs in 2007, the head coach is sure to use his runners a TON in the passing game. What that rushing attack doesn’t duplicate in total TDs it will likely make up for in receptions and receiving yards. Tomlinson will be unstoppable in ‘07 (when on the field), and if RB Michael Turner’s number should be called, he too will be one of fantasy football’s best producing rushers in every game that he starts.
