Draft Strategies: RB Or WR In The Late-2nd?

Is it better to draft a running back in the late-2nd round of your fantasy football draft, or is it better to go with a wide receiver?

I can’t tell you how many times we have been asked this question, and rightfully so, as it is even a huge topic of debate here at Fantasy Football Xtreme (with the staff). The tough part about answering such a question is taking into account all of the differing variables that can affect such advice (like scoring, league size, draft-flow, etc.).

For example, waiting on drafting your first WR in a 10-team league is a lot different than waiting on your first WR in a 12-team league. In a 10-team league, you can grab a Javon Walker and Andre Johnson in the 4th and 5th rounds, and both are arguably low-end #1WRs. In smaller leagues, it just makes a whole lot of sense to attack the running back position in the first couple of rounds because of the limited amount of NFL starters out there.

Ok, so that covers 10-team leagues (in general), at least how I see it – Now let’s brush up against an example in a 12-team league. Here we go…

So, you have the #5 overall pick in a 12-team league that starts 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K and 1Def. Let’s take a look at an ADP (below, to the left) and see what two teams we can come up with using both strategies (passing on a WR in the 2nd, then taking a WR in the 2nd). Which team is better?

Average Draft Positions

Round One

1.05 – Joseph Addai

Round Two

2.08 – Marvin Harrison

Round Three

3.05 – Marshawn Lynch

Round Four

4.08 – Lee Evans

Draft Strategies

Team Built Around 2nd-Round WR

Draft Spot: #5 1.5 – Joseph Addai 2.8 – Marvin Harrison 3.5 – Marshawn Lynch 4.8 – Lee Evans

Team Built Around 2nd-Round RB

Draft Spot: #5 1.5 – Joseph Addai 2.8 – Thomas Jones 3.5 – Roy Williams (or Boldin-type) 4.8 – Lee Evans (or even a Colston-type)

Analysis

By looking at these two teams, one team built around taking a running back in the 2nd, the other built around taking a wide receiver, it has become clear that fantasy owners can build two very similar teams using either strategy.

Even if you go RB, WR, WR, RB vs. RB, WR, RB, WR, the team built around taking a WR in that second-round seems to hold up pretty good against any variation of the team built around going RB, RB with its first two selections.

Even with all this info on the table, it must be said that a lot depends on the type of league that you’re in, what your rules are, what kind of scoring your league uses and what players are still available… In general, drafting in the #5 spot in a 12-team league seems to leave you in a situation where you may just want to take the best player available in that late second-round. If you hold a draft spot that is in the beginning of the 2nd, well, that is an entirely different story and you should likely take a RB with that 2nd-round pick no matter what.

For examples not covered, we recommend running our Draft Simulator over and over until you end up taking a look at all of the different teams that your draft position can construct.

Draft Players With Upside

If you do plan on passing on a running back in the 2nd round in your 2007 12-team league draft, we’d advise that you target rookie RB Adrian Peterson in the 5th round if you should be so lucky. His ADP is right around the 5.4-range, which is a steal in my opinion, and to be honest, I’d even consider selecting the rookie in the mid-to-late 4th in 12-team redraft leauges this year. A.P., if healthy, should have no problem being as reliable as either Reggie Bush or Maurice Jones-Drew were in their rookie campaigns last year.

Players To Target In 2007

Marques Colston – The receiver often falls into the 4th-round, which is a steal – This strategy can allow you to attack RBs early and still have elite-upside at the WR position Javon Walker – Could be a top 5WR but is not being drafted like one – take advantage and enjoy the breakout passing game in Denver in ‘07 Michael Turner – His ADP is around the 8.08 to 9.02 range right now, and it should easily be around the 6th to 7th-round range given his upside – grab him more than a couple picks before his up-to-date ADP come draft day, it could payoff like no other 2007 selection Brandon Jackson – The runner was getting half of the first team reps before Morency was sidelined on Sunday, but now expect the rookie to take advantage of the extra snaps – he could be one of this year’s biggest surprises [flv:/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/breaking-news-brandonjackson.mp3 120 0]