Adrian Peterson has the ability to be the #1 fantasy pick in first-year 2008 dynasty drafts next season, but at this point, I still say LaDainian Tomlinson is by far the safest 2008 and beyond selection. He has more than a year of total fantasy domination left in the tank, but AP is certainly right behind him.
Really, any one of these runners has the ability to jump up into that first tier, but every single one of these guys also has the ability to fall into the third tier down below. Do I think more than one of these rushers will fall from elite entering 2008? No, not really, but because the threat is there, these RBs do not deserve to be in that tier number one.
It really is a shame to have to put Ronnie Brown down in this group, especially at the bottom, but we struggled to even place him there. Brown (ACL tear) should be ready to go by September, and could be practicing fully in late August, but one little setback and Brown could leave fantasy owners high and dry in early 2008. Jesse Chatman’s success from Weeks 8-16 in 2007 should be very telling as to what kind of workload Brown owners can expect in ‘08. If Chatman plays like a top 10-12 runner for the remainder of the 2007 fantasy season (very possible), Miami might just have a RBBC through the first half of next season (at the very least). As for the other RBs worth mentioning in this tier, both Reggie Bush and Joseph Addai are capable of climbing into that second tier up above. Even LaMont Jordan has a shot at an entire tier climb.
Michael Turner is the one runner out of all of these runners (in all the tiers) that has the ability to climb multiple tiers. He sits atop tier four right now, but he has the upside and ability to reach the bottom of that tier two up above. The back-up rusher has a real opportunity to land on a team as an NFL starter this off-season — If he stays healthy all year, expect him to be the hottest free agent running back around this coming off-season. Brandon Jacobs has the talent and size to climb a single tier, as well as Marion Barber, but both have size questions (on different extremes) that make us question their longevity in this sport of fantasy football. We do love Barber’s skill-set and would love to see him get starting job security. Shaun Alexander has the ability to drop a tier, or climb one — let’s see how he finishes the 2007 season before we assume too much about his positioning in these tiers.
Jerious Norwood has major tier-climbing upside, but his size and the team’s commitment to use the speedster limit some of our faith in his fantasy future. Caddy may not ever return to stud form, but was he really even worthy of starting on fantasy teams as a RB2 before his injury? Travis Henry has the most upside of this group, but his suspension situation has made him a huge liability as an early selection in 2008 dynasty-geared fantasy drafts.
It is hard to predict what could happen with some of these names, as an Andre Hall could emerge out of nowhere and be a tier four kind of guy by season’s end (or he could drop out of this tier all together). Ernest Graham could continue to impress and his value could rise in just the coming weeks. Will Chris Henry and Leon Washington emerge as starters for their teams near the end of this season, thus giving them bumps up into at least the next tier? Time will tell.
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