Below are a grip of players that are on the verge of Breakout or Bust. Since many fantasy owners are on the fence when it comes to some of these players, we have decided to force ourselves to argue one extreme or the other, with really no in between. So, Jeff and myself (Smitty) will put our backs against the wall on these and either project Breakout or Bust for the following players.
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[ SMITTY ] Grant’s early off-season ADP is going to be all over the place, as many will believe in the runner and many will anathematize his fantasy emergence. His monster finish to the 2007 fantasy season, on top of some flashes of greatness in the Playoffs, suggest to me that this kid is the real deal and the next Rudi Johnson. That Packers offensive attack and blocking scheme are perfect for Grant’s strengths and style of play. Assuming Favre returns next year, Grant will continue to breakout in 2008.
[ JEFF ] I’m sold! If Favre ends up calling it quits, Grant would be a little more risky, but as of right now I say draft Grant in the 10-15 range in 2008 drafts. Breakout.
[ SMITTY ] Turner, an unrestricted free agent this off-season, will probably land in ATL, CHI, CLE, HOU or a place like AZ (assuming the Cards release Edgerrin James). Once the fleet-footed runner king sizes his contract and lands his starting gig, he will be inside my personal top 10-15 overall players heading into the 2008 fantasy football season.
[ JEFF ] I am not as high on Turner as Smitty, that’s for sure, but I do like his upside once he finds a new team. Where he ends up will determine everything, but he definitely has more “breakout” potential than “bust” potential in my opinion.
[ SMITTY ] This is a tough one, but if forced to pick bust or breakout, with no middle ground, I go breakout. White doesn’t have consistent quarterback play, but that didn’t stop him in 2007, as he had a respectable 83 receptions for 1,202 yards and 6TDs. I see no reason why White can’t at least duplicate those numbers in ‘08, and if the team adds a power rusher like Michael Turner this off-season (or drafts a top back), White and that ATL passing game will be that much better.
[ JEFF ] Even though White had a great year last year (83/1,202/6), I’m always a little bit skeptical of WRs having back-to-back great years in a mediocre offense. Even with my concerns, you can’t throw White into a bust category for no good reason. He is a breakout guy for sure, but just don’t draft him too high.
[ SMITTY ] Jones-Drew definitely didn’t have a great 2007 fantasy season in the yardage department, but he did manage to rush for nine scores. With Fred Taylor turning 32 this month, I have a feeling that Jones-Drew will take over in 2008 and rush for about 1,100 yards and 10+ touchdowns. His prodigious career 5.1 yards-per-carry average tells me that he will have tremendous success once he gets those starter-type carries. I’m guessing that he will get his upgraded workload this coming season — Breakout!
[ JEFF ] Fred Taylor was amazing in 2007 but I just don’t see him doing it again. Not at his age and with his injury history. Jones-Drew is the future and has scored 24 total touchdowns in his short two-year stay in the NFL. Breakout is written all over Jones-Drew in 2008.
[ SMITTY ] This one is tough, as much depends on where Barber lands this off-season. Almost everyone expects the Cowboys to resign Barber in the coming months and let Julius Jones hit the free agent market, but anything is possible. For the moment, I’m going to assume that Barber stays in Dallas to start in 2008… so I’m going to project that Barber is a big-time breakout candidate entering the ‘08 season. In fact, as a starter in Dallas in 2008, Barber has the upside of a top 5-8 fantasy running back. And like I said in a Radio Interview on The Fan AM 1060 back in December, Barber probably wont have a cup of coffee with the first-round in most 2008 fantasy drafts, which means he could end up being a real steal next year if he starts and stays healthy.
[ JEFF ] I like Barber, I just don’t know where he is going to end up. His rough rushing style also concerns me. I’m going to probably regret this, but my initial gut instinct tells me that Barber won’t live up to expectations, whether it be because he can’t stay healthy, or because he doesn’t get quite the contract that he wants this off-season, which could force him to play in a questionable situation. An example of that would be Dallas signing him to a decent size deal, but then drafting a big-time rusher late in this year’s deep 2008 NFL draft. All the variables make me doubt Barber this upcoming season. Gulp. Bust!
[ SMITTY ] Derek Anderson is my favorite high-risk / high-reward QB entering 2008. Because D. Anderson has some risk attached to his name (Quinn), it is important to strictly invest in Anderson at sleeper-type value, not at top 5-type value. What I mean is, he is a great fantasy starter if your plan is to wait on a QB. Given all the other QBs that fantasy owners can select in early rounds come draft day, Anderson will probably fall into some pretty nice draft slots in most leagues. The reason Quinn doesn’t concern me all that much is because he is on a five-year, $9.2 million dollar deal. Another $11 million is available via escalators in 2010 and 2011, but that is based on Quinn taking at least 55% of the snaps in each of the first two seasons, or at least 70% of the snaps in his third year. If he is not playing, he won’t be activating those escalators, so Quinn’s contract isn’t the kind of contract that puts pressure on a front office. Does that mean there is no risk here? No, there is absolutely some risk with Anderson in 2008, but I believe in his abilities and I see greatness in this guy. In my eyes, D. Anderson is easily a breakout candidate entering 2008.
[ JEFF ] I realize Anderson played well last year, but he did drop off a little toward the end of the season, and the Browns most likely want Quinn to start in 2009. That means that Anderson may not finish the season as the Browns’ starting QB. If they are able to sign Anderson to a medium size contract extension, then, and only then, would I trust that the Browns would rather deal Quinn in 2009 vs. start Quinn. I know there is a lot of debate on this topic, especially within FFX, but that is my take. Anderson is more of a bust candidate than a breakout candidate in my opinion.
[ SMITTY ] In his last four games, Maroney averaged over 100 yards-per-contest. In those four games alone, the rusher racked up 5 scores and was averaging over 20 carries-per-game. That’s some solid football right there! The problem is that Maroney wasn’t playing like this when it counted most. In fact, Maroney wasn’t even flex-worthy in 2007 until late November. So, what can fantasy owners count on? Well, I’ll tell you what I’m counting on in 2008 when it comes to Maroney… I’m counting on someone taking Maroney way too high so I don’t even have to worry about it. If Maroney falls almost too far, well, then obviously I’ll invest, but odds are someone in each of my leagues, and yours as well, will overvalue the New England rusher and make the decision-making-process an easy one come draft day. I’m going to roll with bust on this one, as Maroney has a lot to prove before he costs me one of my first three picks.
[ JEFF ] Bust. Maroney is inconsistent, an injury risk and you don’t know where he stands in the Patriots 2008 offensive plans. Sure, he is playing well now, but why the sudden change? Because there are no guarantees when it comes to New England’s offense, I wont touch Maroney early in any of my ‘08 drafts.
[ SMITTY ] I’m not a LenDale White fan — Never have been, probably never will be. I will admit that he played better than I expected in 2007 (303/1,110//7), but any decent rusher can get 1,100 yards on 300 carries.. that’s only a 3.7 yards-per-carry average. That isn’t effective football. If you had put a better running back in his place in ‘07, that runner would have probably spit out 1,300+ yards and 7-10 scores. White is always banged up and I just don’t see the long-term value in this guy. He reminds me a lot of Ron Dayne and I have a bad feeling that he was constructed from Ron Dayne’s career blueprint. If you ask me, White is very likely to be a bust in 2008 and beyond.
[ JEFF ] As much as I want to say bust, White is in a good situation and he had a pretty good fantasy season last year. White ran for 1,110 yards and scored 7 rushing touchdowns, but his injury history makes him a risk. I won’t say bust on this one, but make sure you don’t draft White too high in 2008, like as your RB2.
[ SMITTY ] Williams had just one 20-carry game in 2007, but he made the most of it rushing for 121 yards and 2TDs with a 6.1 yards-per-carry average. The 217-pound runner was a workhorse in college and he has done nothing but produce when given the opportunity at the NFL level, as he has averaged 4.6 yards-per-carry so far in his young two-year career, and had a 5.0 yards-per-carry average all of last year. If he had received 303 carries like LenDale White up above, Williams would have ran for over 1,500 yards in 2007. Williams may not be the safest player to bank on when it comes to ‘08 breakouts, but he certainly has more “breakout” potential than “bust” potential entering the 2008 fantasy season. Plus, Carolina could very well release DeShaun Foster this off-season to save some cash, as the runner is scheduled to earn $4.75 million in 2008.
[ JEFF ] Breakout. Williams has done well whenever he has been given the chance to perform. He had a 5.0 YPC average in 2007 and should be the starter in Carolina in ‘08.
[ SMITTY ] It’s near impossible to know for certain what the Bucs plan to do with Ernest Graham this upcoming season, but if I’m the coach, Caddy doesn’t sniff the starting line-up in 2008. Caddy suffered a career-threatening patella tendon injury in September of 2007, and recent reports suggest that he is going to need a full 9-12 months to recover, which means he could miss all of training camp. Even if Caddy can get back by Week 1 of the 2008 NFL season, he still probably won’t be near 100% until 2009. Graham started just 11 games in 2007, but he ran the football 240 times for 961 yards (4.0 YPC) and 11TDs. He also caught 53 passes for 351 yards in 2007. Graham is the real deal and the Bucs coaching staff is nuts if they don’t give Graham a contract extension now before it’s too late. Breakout!
[ JEFF ] I like Graham but it sounds like Gruden still plans on taking his Cadillac for a spin just as soon as it’s out of the shop. I don’t think Williams will be healthy enough to take on a full load in early 2007, but he may snag enough of the carries in Tampa next year to make it a full RRBC in ‘08. Graham has value if you draft him as a RB3, but I think he is bust material if you’re counting on him as your RB2 next year.
To talk about this article, visit its official thread on the FFX Fantasy Football Forums.
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