Below are players that are likely to be overvalued and undervalued entering the 2008 fantasy football season. With 2008 fantasy football mock drafts already emerging, like our 2008 “Day After the NFL Super Bowl” Expert Mock, it’s starting to become somewhat clear who is going to cost you an arm and a leg on draft day, and who is going to be a bargain. Things will change by the second this off-season, but it’s never too early to dig into this topic.
The Raiders just re-inked Fargas to a three-year deal worth roughly $12 million, $6 million of which is guaranteed. His new contract is about to ignite a conforming effect that will, in the eyes of many, bump Fargas into the RB2 category. While Fargas certainly found success in Oakland in 2007, rushing for 1,009 yards, I truly believe that it’s a big mistake to expect anything more than flex-type numbers out of him in this upcoming fantasy year.
Yea, the team obviously believes in the runner enough to give him $6 million in guarantees, but that isn’t the kind of money that will keep sophomore RB Michael Bush at bay if injury happens to strike the oft-injured Fargas. Make no mistake, Fargas is now the team’s starter, and because Oakland did hand over a decent amount of cash to Fargas, I don’t see the team making many more additions this off-season at the running back position. This is actually good news for Michael Bush, who could have had an even longer road to that Oakland starting line-up if the team had brought in a big-name free agent rusher, or drafted a first- or second-round running back. Once Fargas gets banged up (likely), or has a handful of mediocre performances, Michael Bush will get a crack at being the team’s bellwether rusher, and once he gets his hands on the gig, it’s possible that he doesn’t let go of it.
Recommendation: I’m not saying to draft Bush higher than Fargas in 2008, and I’m certainly not saying that Bush is a lock to be a stud in the NFL… What I am saying is that fantasy owners should let someone else spend an early-round draft pick on Fargas this year, then become that fantasy owner that grabs Michael Bush with a late-round selection (where there is almost zero risk). It may or may not workout, but Bush is worth the gamble given the cost and I do not believe that Fargas is. Note: Fargas fell all the way to the 7th-round in our recent Expert Mock Draft, but the selection occurred days after the runner signed his new deal. The 7th-round would be virtually no risk and is great value, but don’t expect that looking forward — Now that his deal is done, expect to overpay if you want him.
Maroney just went in the 4th-round in our 2008 “Day After the NFL Super Bowl” Expert Mock Draft, which leads me to believe that his ADP (average draft position) is going to be all over the place in 2008. I imagine that Maroney will be a steal in some drafts, and not in others.
Recommendation: Let someone else take the risk on Maroney in the second-round come draft day. He is a relatively safe-grab as a third or fourth player (especially fourth), but nothing more given that Maroney was one of last year’s biggest first-round busts. One just doesn’t know how New England plans to use the runner in ‘08.
White, who just underwent arthroscopic knee surgery, is expected to be ready for minicamp in May. The one thing White has going for him heading into 2008 is that the Titans will run a ton. That said, White’s weight issues and injury history make him a risky grab anywhere inside the first four rounds.
Recommendation: While it is possible for White to produce low-end RB2-type numbers in 2008, it’s hard to count on that kind of production, especially with RB Chris Henry ready to eat into White’s workload. The Titans runner did go at 4.08 in our recent Expert Mock Draft, but that isn’t a pick that I would have made given that players like Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Antonio Gates, Brandon Marshall, Santonio Holmes, Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart were all still on the board at that selection. Once all of those players are off the board in 2008 drafts, which should translate commonly into the 5th-round, then and only then would I consider rostering White. My advice to fantasy owners heading into ‘08 is to secure RB1 and RB2 in the earlier rounds, that way you don’t have to gamble on a White-type as anything more than a flex-option. Keep In Mind: Both rookie RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Jonathan Stewart aren’t likely to fall past the third-round come August. If they both land in ideal situations in 2008, their fantasy value will go through the roof. Given that this draft began on Feb. 4, the rookies were very undervalued. Keep that in mind.
I selected Michael Turner #25 overall in our recent Expert Mock Draft, which is well before is current ADP. Even though I was reaching a bit, I wasn’t going to be on the clock again until pick #48, and there was no way I was going wait on Turner until then. So why is taking Turner higher than his ADP advised when the whole point of this article is not to overvalue? Well, because Turner has top 10RB upside entering 2008! He is one of those guys worth reaching for this year, as he will almost certainly surpass his draft value even after reaching for him (which, in this case is#25 overall). Don’t get me wrong, I always recommend drafting a guy as late as you can to maximize draft-value, but there are some players I’m just willing to reach for, and Turner is one of them.
Recommendation: Turner, who is about to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this month, should have a new home before April’s 2008 NFL Draft. This means that his ADP is about to go on a roller coaster ride. Just as soon as he is cemented into a starting role in the NFL, he should quickly move into the top 20-25 overall in most early drafts. Expect more!
Holmes is my #1 breakout WR for the 2008 season, and I honestly think that he has an excellent shot at producing top 8-10WR numbers this upcoming year. With Roethy getting better and better, and with Ward aging, it is time for Santonio to make a name for himself. He fits the famous “third-year breakout” mold for wide receivers entering their third NFL season, and he has the skills to pull in 100 balls.
Recommendation: Fantasy owners can feel very confident drafting Holmes as their WR2 entering ‘08. If he didn’t miss two games last year, and if he didn’t play injured through another two, Holmes could have posted 1,100+ receiving yards and 10+ scores. Expecting at least that in 2008 sounds about right.
Even with the risk that he won’t get the touches he needs, Jones-Drew has borderline second-round value. This should be the year he gets starter-type carries, so get ready!
Recommendation: As of this moment, I say don’t hesitate to take Jones-Drew in the middle of the third-round in ‘08 drafts… and if you like to gamble, Jones-Drew is a solid high-risk/high-reward candidate in that 22-28 overall-range.
Did you know that Cooley has had over 57 receptions, 730 yards and at least 6 scores in each of his last three seasons? He has had six or more touchdowns in four straight years. Cooley has top 3TE upside, but he will be treated like a middle-to-late-round draft pick.
Recommendation: Cooley is worth a grab right after Jason Witten and Antonio Gates are off the board. Only Todd Heap and Vernon Davis deserve consideration over Cooley, but the Washington TE is way more consistent, so he is the safer selection in my opinion.
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