LaDainian Tomlinson

Is LaDainian Tomlinson still a top 2 overall pick?

This is a common topic on our Fantasy Football Forums right now, as so many fantasy owners are concerned about Tomlinson’s long-term value. Before I even begin to answer this very popular 2008 fantasy question, let’s first take a look at Tomlinson’s career stats.

LaDainian Tomlinson Career Stats

Tomlinson Pros & Cons For 2008

Pros

1. San Diego has quite possibly the easiest rushing schedule in the entire NFL in 2008, according to our Opponents Strength of Schedule Breakdown
2. As you can see above, Tomlinson just doesn’t miss games — Only one missed game in seven straight regular seasons
3. While this is both a pro and a con, L.T. has never carried the ball less than 300 times in a single season, which means he is a guaranteed elite numbers if healthy
4. Tomlinson has never had a single digit touchdown season in this league and has scored under 15 total TDs just once, which was his rookie season where he scored just 10 times — He averages over 18 total touchdowns per NFL season

Cons

1. Tomlinson is recovering from a sprained MCL, which kept the runner out of just about the entire 2007 AFC title game — This is really his first major injury as a pro, but knee injuries often linger at Tomlinson’s age
2. The rusher has 2300+ regular season carries to his name, which is seven straight years of at least 300+ carries per season — That’s some heavy mileage
3. Tomlinson will be 29 before the 2008 season begins
4. Philip Rivers suffered a torn ACL late in the season and didn’t have his knee surgery until this past January, which means that the Chargers passing attack is sure to be slow moving in early 2008 (if Rivers is even ready in time for Week 1)

Predicting the decline of an elite back is never an easy thing. Many times, the cautious fantasy owner will write off the elite prematurely, thus missing out on another couple runs as a top fantasy producer. Other times, the optimistic fantasy owner will often holdout hope that the fantasy athlete has another good year left, but then is left empty handed once the dreaded decline strikes.

Has Tomlinson just carried the football way too much to endure yet another full season of grinding it out between the tackles? I mean, seven straight years of 300+ carries… that’s a lot. To put that figure in perspective, Larry Johnson (29 in November) has only had 160-plus-carry seasons twice, and has rushed the ball over 1,200 less times than Tomlinson as a pro… and many believe that L.J. is going to breakdown for the long-term?

The big question, which has no concrete answer, is this: Does LaDainian Tomlinson have another top 2 overall fantasy season left in him?

I say yes. I think that the running back may start missing some games after this season, and maybe a couple this year, but I think that he is capable of playing 14 games in 2008 and should still finish inside the top 3 overall for fantasy athletes in 2008. If you own L.T. in a dynasty league, I strongly urge you to get on our Fantasy Forums and get some advice on trading the running back while his value is still so very high.

Should you trade him now in dynasty leagues? Well, that all depends… If you can win now, I say no, ride L.T. for another season and go get that title. If you’re in a rebuilding year in your keeper/dynasty league and own the beast-of-a-runner, definitely look to maximize your trade value by shopping him now, but also consider waiting a few games into the 2008 season, as his relatively easy schedule may give him a huge increase in value right out of the gate in ‘08… plus, almost everyone is in the future mode in the off-season, but once the 2008 season begins, those teams in your league that are in the mix for the title will start sacrificing future for the now, which will get you more in trade when you send L.T. packing.

To talk about this article, visit its official thread on our FFX Forums.