Below I have ranked my the 2008 Fantasy Football Rookie Running Backs (now that they have landing spots) — Some of you have 2008 fantasy football rookie drafts approaching, so hopefully this article will help you prepare.
Updated Last: 5-03-08
I’ll admit, when Rashard Mendenhall was selected by the Steelers with the No. 23 overall pick, my initial reaction was that he could have landed in a better spot… The truth is, Pittsburgh is an excellent landing spot for Mendy. The elite talent is now going to be the focal point of one of the most powerful offenses in the entire league. How is Joseph Addai looking these days? Addai, like Mendy, was drafted into a situation where another runner was set to start. In fact, Joseph Addai didn’t start one single game in his rookie campaign (2006), but he got his touches and that potent Indy offensive attack took care of the rest. Granted, “Fast Willie Parker” is a bit better than a Dominic Rhodes, but let’s not get carried away here with FWP… he had already dropped out of our top 30 overall before Saturday’s 2008 NFL Draft ever began, and he certainly didn’t have a long career ahead of him even before the Mendenhall selection. Guys like Parker aren’t built to be full-time rushers, and they never last. Parker still has talent, don’t get me wrong, but this is Mendenhall’s team now and he is going to be a top 10 fantasy runner for years and years to come. He should have a nice rookie season, possibly posting top 12-15 fantasy running back numbers, but his breakout year could be in 2009. Next year, Mendenhall might be a top 7-9 overall pick.
This is a great place for Darren McFadden, who is about as explosive as they come. Granted, I do have Mendenhall ranked higher for the long-term, but if forced to draft just for the 2008 season alone, I may go with McFadden.. but it sure is close! You don’t get selected No. 4 overall and ride the bench, so D-Mac is going to get used a ton right from Week 1. I think that Mendy will as well, but because there are some questions about ration of carries between Mendenhall and Parker (at least in the early weeks of the 2008 season), McFadden gets the 2008 edge. Jonathan Stewart also commands consideration with this #2RB spot, but I’m just not thrown off at all with either landing spot for McFadden or Mendenhall, so nothing changes for me post-draft (at least for the top 3 running backs). I predict that McFadden puts up top 11-14 fantasy running back numbers in 2008 and is a top 10-12 overall talent entering fresh 2009 dynasty league drafts.
Let me first start off by saying that I like Jonathan Stewart a lot… and I like his future value a ton. When all is said and done, this draft class may end up producing three elite talents. That said, I honestly don’t understand why so many fantasy owners are liking this Carolina landing spot more than Rashard Mendenhall’s landing spot in Pittsburgh, or Darren McFadden’s landing spot in Oakland. Carolina has a solid QB/WR combo in Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith, but Pittsburgh is loaded with even more talent… talent that leads to tremendously effective rushing attacks. As I just stated up above, Joseph Addai is blowing up in Indy, but a lot of his success has to be attributed to that system. He is a great runner, but he is a system guy and he often has ample room to run and he is often in great field position. You’re going to see the same results with Mendenhall in Pittsburgh… the only thing is, I think Mendenhall is even more talented! Again, none of this is to take away from Jonathan Stewart, or his new home in Carolina, but I cannot move Stewart up to the #1 or #2 rookie running back spot based on his situation. I do see Stewart having a real productive season in 2008. If he can stay healthy, which is a concern of mine, I see no reason he can’t get close to Mendenhall and McFadden numbers in 2008. As for the future, I see no reason Stewart can get up into the top 12-15 overall range for dynasty running backs.
The Bears don’t believe in Cedric Benson (broken ankle) anymore, and his recent ankle surgery is going to leave him a step slower anyway, so this was a great move for the Bears. Forte has a real future in this league and if all goes well in Chicago, the rookie could be the steal of most 2008 rookie fantasy drafts. Keep in mind that Chicago also just drafted OT Chris Williams with the No. 14 overall pick.
What a great spot for the Central Florida product! Kevin Smith will have very little competition in Detroit, especially for the long-term! The talented running back rushed for 2,567 yards in 2007, which is just 61 yards short of Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record (2,628). He also scored 30 total touchdowns in last season. That’s nuts! He is a bit raw and was a bit overworked last season (450 carries), but the talent is there and his situation is ideal. Smith commands consideration at that 1.04 pick in 2008 fantasy football rookie drafts!
I don’t understand this pick at all. Rashard Mendenhall is sitting there right in front of Jerry Jones at No. 22 overall and he takes Felix Jones? I like Jones, and he definitely has speed that Marion Barber doesn’t have, but he and Barber have similar styles. If the Cowboys don’t believe in Barber’s ability to carry a full workload at the NFL level, why draft another running back that weights roughly 207 pounds? While I like Jones, and believe he is a game-breaker, this is a move that the Cowboys will regret for years and years to come. Mendenhall is the next elite stud and Jerry Jones and the Cowboys just let him slip away.
Everyone knew Shanny would grab a back in this deep RB draft, but we predicted Ray Rice. Ryan Torain is perfect for Shanahan’s one-cut scheme and he has great size and abilities. He was actually a highly-ranked runner before a long list of injuries damaged his 2008 draft-value, so the Broncos got great value with this grab. It isn’t a matter of “if” Torain will start for the Broncos, the question is “when” will he start for the Broncos… Torain, like Forte, could end up being one of the steals of most 2008 fantasy rookie drafts.
Chris Johnson is one fast running back! He runs a 4.24 forty and he is going to help this Titans offense tremendously. While Tennessee might not know what good field position looks like, Johnson is going to bring a lot of it in 2008. He may not ever be a full-time runner, so curb your fantasy expectations for the moment. Don’t reach, but do invest if the price is right, as he still has great upside.
Hightower is actually a solid prospect, and the Cards got great value with their No. 149 overall pick. Hightower could be that power rusher that Whisenhunt needs, but I don’t think that this kid is going to unseat Edgerrin James this year (at least early on). Edge owners should definitely grab Hightower in 2008 redraft leagues, and dynasty league owners, even if you don’t own Edge, should take a stab at the rookie if the price is right.
This is an interesting pick. Many scouts wonder if Slaton’s abilities will translate at the NFL level, and to be honest, I agree. The kid has skills, and at least he landed with a team that has very little “future” at the position, but I firmly believe that the Texans made a huge mistake trading down and passing on Rashard Mendenhall. Our dark horse in Houston is still running back Chris Taylor.
Ray Rice is a solid fit and a must-grab for Willis McGahee owners in 2008, but this move isn’t a great one if you want production now out of a rookie fantasy running back. If McGahee goes down, though, watch out! Cam Cameron is in Baltimore now, so any running back rushing the football for Cameron is going to produce, especially one as talented as Ray Rice.
MISSED THE CUT: Mike Hart (Colts), Justin Forsett (Seahawks), Tashard Choice (Cowboys), Jamaal Charles (Chiefs), Xavier Omon (Bills), Cory Boyd (Bucs), Allen Patrick (Ravens)
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