It’s never too early to start mock drafting, which is why we have put together another staff 2008 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. It is only four rounds in length, but we provide commentary for each pick. This draft is based off of a redraft league, standard scoring system, no PPR.
By the way, if you haven’t already taken advantage of our FREE 2008 Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator, get on it! Test out different strategies so that you don’t walk out of your August draft wishing that you would have gone RB/RB instead of RB/WR in that first- and second-round. With this draft tool, you select the size of the draft, the pick that you want… then all you have to do is draft against our tool… you can roll through a full length draft in a matter of minutes. Test out different strategies!
So, back to the mock… here is our Four-Round Fantasy Football Mock with commentary - This mock was collectively constructed by a number of FFX staffers.
Keep in mind that we have a few reaches in this mock, like Michael Turner (2.04). Turner’s ADP (average draft position) might still be in the third- to fourth-round range come August, so adjust accordingly and know your league! Since we’re drafting against ourselves, our sleepers, like Turner, are going to naturally go quick. Just keep that in mind!
Updated Last: 5/5/08
There wasn’t much debate with this one, as almost everyone here on staff has Adrian Peterson as their #1 fantasy running back across all leagues and formats. In just his rookie season, AP rushed for 1,341 (5.6 Avg.), pulled in 268 yards receiving and scored 13 total touchdowns. AP also had four multiple touchdown contests, long runs of 55, 64 and 73, six 100-yard rushing performances and a NFL single game rushing record performance in Week 9, where the back ran the football 30 times for 296 yards against the Chargers. Oh, he also had three touchdowns in that record-breaking contest. We realize that many of you worry about AP staying healthy, but all you have to do is grab Chester Taylor. That offensive line is outstanding, so Chester will fill in like a low-end RB1 whenever his number is called. Also, if anyone is still concerned about Peterson’s LCL injury from last year, we’re fairly confident that his MVP outing in last year’s Pro Bowl (129 yards and two scores on 16 carries) is sufficient evidence that the back is going to be just fine. Any questions?
While Tomlinson (MCL) is sure to slow down eventually, we don’t believe it will be this season. Tomlinson’s 2008 rushing schedule is one of the softest in the league, so LT should be in for a big year. Of course we recognize that decline is on the horizon for Tomlinson, but we don’t think that it’s going to be this season. Our early 2008 projections have L.T. pulling in roughly 1,900 total yards and 18-20 scores.
One wouldn’t be crazy to select Brian Westbrook or Joseph Addai right here, but we feel that the Rams runner is the safest grab at this point. New offensive coordinator Al Saunders is expected to construct the entire offense around Jackson, so expect some huge numbers in ‘08. If healthy, the aggressive runner is capable of producing 1,400+ rushing yards, 400+ receiving yards and 10-13 scores.
Brian Westbrook will be 29 when the 2008 fantasy football season begins, but elite rushers have recently proven capable of playing at that top level all the way through 30 years of age. While it’s tough to count on Westbrook staying healthy, as he is on the injury report almost every single week, he has actually played in 30 of his last 32 games. That’s actually quite impressive given how many times he has been listed as questionable. Even if he misses a handful of games in 2008, Westy shouldn’t have any problem racking up 1,600 total yards and around 12+ total touchdowns — That will earn you a seat at the top five table!
Addai had a fantastic rookie season back in 2006, posting 1,081 rushing yards and 8 total scores… and he did all that without actually starting a single game for the Colts. Well, entering 2007, the keys to the starting line-up were handed to the back and he cranked out 1,072 yards on 261 carries, caught 41 receptions for 364 and scored 15 total touchdowns. In that Colts offense, there is no reason to think that Addai can’t once again produce 1,000-1,100 yards rushing, 300-400 receiving yards and 10-14 total touchdowns. Addai is probably the safest selection right around this five-spot, and he may just be worthy of a higher selection.
Frank Gore is completely healed from his high ankle sprain, an injury that plagued him for almost all of 2007. The soon-to-be 25 year-old is going to be a HUGE part of the team’s new offense in ‘08. He should play that Marshalll Faulk role in Mike Martz’s system, which is going to mean big numbers both on the ground and through the air. The 5-7 range is a great place to draft this year in redraft leagues because it means that you will get one of Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook or Larry Johnson… All four are capable of being a top 3 overall talent in ‘08. Gore and L.J. have the most risk of the four studs, but Gore could have the highest ceiling of them all!
Why does everyone doubt Larry Johnson? More importantly, why does everyone doubt Larry Johnson in 2008 redraft leagues? We’re not promoting that fantasy owners doubt Steven Jackson, but if one wants to doubt the Chiefs running back with such passion (in 2008), they should at least have the same doubt about the Rams running back. Jackson, who will only be 25 when the 2008 NFL season begins, has more wear and tear on his frame than one might think. His big size and aggressive style are a bad combination to have if you’re a 20+ carry running back in the NFL. We’re not saying that Jackson is even close to done, as we said, he is only 25, but when we hear some fantasy owners say that Larry Johnson’s best days are behind him already, we have to ask how those same fantasy owners are still high on Steven Jackson! The speculation: Many claim that Larry Johnson’s 416-carry season has ruined his current value, or that he has carried the football far too much in his five years in the NFL. This is where it gets interesting. The facts: Steven Jackson has been in the NFL for only four seasons (L.J. has been in the NFL for five)… in those four NFL seasons, Jackson has played in one more game than L.J. and has started a handful more contests. And as far as touches go, and we’re obviously only counting rushing/receiving touches, Johnson has touched the ball just 16 more times than Jackson. Again, our point here isn’t to bash Jackson’s 2008 value, as we rank him #3 up above, we just feel that some of this contagious doubt about Larry Johnson’s 2008 upside needs to be addressed, and using Jackson as a parallel usually gets the job done. Don’t doubt either in 2008, that’s our advice.
The Bills have made it a point this off-season that sophomore running back Marshawn Lynch is going to get his 20-25 carries per game in 2008. Even if Buffalo doesn’t improve their offensive attack this up and coming season, Lynch, based on last year’s 4.0 average, would surpass 1,200 yards rushing on just 20 carries per game. The thing is, we’re big believers in that Buffalo team this year, a team that is on-the-rise. Quarterback Trent Edwards still has a lot to prove, but the 6-4 signal-caller has added ten pounds of muscle and he has one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL to throw the ball to. The passing game will be much improved in this upcoming season, which will help Lynch get that YPC average up to around 4.5.
Under coach Cam Cameron, Willis McGahee could run for 1,300 yards, pull in 60+ balls for roughly 450 yards and he could score 12-15 total touchdowns… Cameron is that good. He spent five seasons in San Diego (2002-06) helping LaDainian Tomlinson become what he is today, and he just proved his coaching skills over in Miami last year, where Ronnie Brown, before suffering a season-ending ACL injury in Week 7, played as good as any running back in the entire NFL. If history is any indication as to what is to come, and if Willis McGahee can manage to stay healthy, the Ravens running back is going to have an elite fantasy season in 2008.
We normally keep quarterbacks out of the first-round, but Tom Brady is the exception to the rule. While most fantasy quarterbacks don’t usually duplicate enormous 40+ touchdown seasons, we think that Brady is capable of doing so. Brady had 52 total touchdowns last year — Even if he only hits 40, he will earn this type of draft value.
How can anyone doubt Randy Moss after last season. In 16 games, the Patriots receiver caught 98 passes for 1,493 and 23 touchdowns. Do we expect similar stats out of “The Freak” in 2008? No, but even if he puts up 15 scores, he will be worthy of a top 11-14 pick in almost all 2008 leagues and formats.
Congrats to those who reacted to our August Players On The Rise Article last off-season, as we advised that fantasy owners take full advantage of Portis’ low player value entering the start of the 2007 NFL season. As for the upcoming 2008 NFL Season, you can expect another solid year out of the Redskins running back. New head coach Jim Zorn has made it very clear that the team is going to be a run-heavy offense in 2008, and the coaching staff has also made it very clear that Portis will be their workhorse. If he can remain healthy, Portis should be able to throw down 1,200+ rushing yards, 300-400 receiving yards and 10-12 total touchdowns in 2008.
Is there some risk ranking Jones-Drew this high? Sure, but because this “human bowling ball” has the ability to be a top 7RB, he is worth the gamble in that 14-18 range in 2008 redraft leagues. Jones-Drew should finally see 200+ carries this upcoming season, and at his career 5.1 yards-per carry average, the little guy should drop his first 1,000-yard rushing season and will once again score double-digit touchdowns.
One could argue that Manning is the best fantasy quarterback heading into the ‘08 season, but we feel that Brady’s record-breaking 2007 campaign has earned him the top spot no matter what. Still, Manning has the ability to throw for 40+ touchdowns in any given season and this alone makes him a solid second-round pick in most scoring formats.
As Tavaner (our forum moderator) once said on our Fantasy Forums, 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns and the QB is still improving? Great statement and it really puts his upside into perspective. Romo is arguably the best fantasy quarterback of the future, but for now, 2.03 is bold enough. Expect another season with 4,000 yards and 35+ scores.
Michael Turner, 26, is an absolute beast. The 5-10, 237 pound running back has a rare combination of size, speed and power… think of him as a bigger and quicker version of Marion Barber. The future fantasy stud has been in the NFL for four seasons, and on 228 carries as a pro, Turner has a career 5.5 yards-per-carry average. Yea, that isn’t a ton of carries to go off of, but when doubters rip on Turner’s lack of resume in the NFL, we always find it amusing to ask those same people how a guy with such a small NFL resume has managed to rack-up long runs of 83, 73, 74? If you still have your doubts, just watch the game film below… past that, we can only warn you of his fantasy arrival so many times, the rest is up to you!
It’s hard to doubt a guy that just spit out 956 yards and eight touchdowns on just 7 starts, but it’s going to be a common reaction in the world of fantasy football heading into August drafts. Brett Favre retiring is going to hurt Grant’s production in 2008, there is no way around it. Last year, Favre made it tough for opposing defenses to focus on that Green Bay rushing attack, which was unbelievably successful last season. Now that Aaron Rodgers is under center in Green bay, it’s tough to predict what is going to happen in ‘08, but even in a downgraded offensive attack, Grant is still capable of 1,200-1,300 yards and 8-10 scores. The upside for more is certainly present, which is why he is ranked this high.
Reggie Bush had a disappointing ‘07, but it wasn’t all his fault. Reggie isn’t a between-the-tackles kind of guy, but last season Deuce McAllister went down with an ACL injury (in Week 3) and the Saints forced Bush into that every-down role. That was a mistake and we believe that the Saints know this. Well, not only will Deuce be back in 2008, but the Saints may have found their new “grind-it-out” type of running back in Pierre Thomas. Thomas showed flashes of brilliance last year in Week 17, rushing the football 20 times for 105 yards (5.3 Avg.), catching 12 passes for 121 yards and scoring one touchdown. It’s tough to judge a guy’s upside off of just one game, but if you watch Thomas play even a little, you will realize that he has some serious talent. Bush doesn’t need 1,000 yards rushing to be an elite fantasy running back, he needs 1,000 yards receiving. He is a unique talent that is certainly capable of rejoining the fantasy elite, but the Saints need to feed him about 10-12 carries per game to go along with roughly 6 receptions per game. That right there would be a recipe for an 800/900 type of season with 10-12 scores. Bush, 23, will be very underrated entering 2008 fantasy drafts — Take full advantage and draft him even lower than this if you can get away with it! Same goes for Michael Turner up above… know your league and adjust, it’s all about draft value!
Earnest Graham, like Ryan Grant, was a real find for a lot of fantasy owners last year. The waiver wire running back only started 10 games in 2007, yet he dropped 10 touchdowns and rushed for 898 yards on 222 carries. On a full season, based on his per-start average, Graham would have rushed for over 1,200 yards and 11+ touchdowns in 2007. The runner might not score 11TDs in 2008, but he should have no problem rushing for 1,200+ yards and 7-8 scores. This is a redraft mock, so Graham’s age isn’t factor yet, but if you’re a dynasty league owner, keep in mind that Graham is already 28. We thought that was worth mentioning.
Reggie Wayne is arguably the best dynasty WR in fantasy football. One could also argue that he should be the first WR taken in 2008 redraft leagues, but in our opinion, Moss has earned that top spot. Wayne, our clear #2 ranked WR heading into 2008, posted 104 receptions last year for 1,510 yards and 10 scores. That’s a phenomenal season! Expect more of the same in ‘08 and beyond!
Last season, Braylon Edwards grabbed 80 balls for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns. He had four 100-yard games and four multiple-touchdown games. That’s what you call a third-year breakout season for a wide receiver! Expect a few less touchdowns, but maybe even more yards in ‘08. Roughly 90 receptions for 1,400 yards and 10-12 scores sounds about right for Edwards in this upcoming fantasy season.
Terrell Owens will turn 35 in December, so a decline in production is clearly near, but Owens takes care of himself like no other wide receiver we’ve ever seen, and in nine seasons as a pro, he has averaged 11.4 touchdowns per season. It’s safe to assume that Owens can put together one more 1,100-yard season with at least 10-11 scores.
Here at Fantasy Football Xtreme, we’re split down the middle on this one. Some staffers have Maroney ranked in the middle of third-round somewhere, while a few of us have him at the top of the second. So in the middle he will sit. Maroney obviously burned a lot of fantasy owners in the first 14 weeks of the 2007 fantasy season, but he did explode in his final six games last year. Including the playoffs, Maroney rushed for over 100 yards in four of his final 6 games and he also scored seven times in those six contests. That was truly a phenomenal run, but it was too little too late for most fantasy owners. So, what Maroney will fantasy worlds see in 2008? We’d be lying if we said we knew one way or the other, so our advice is not to reach. If he falls, so be it, but he is best served as an early third-round pick, or very late second-round selection.
Many thought that we were nuts for ranking Adrian Peterson as high as we did last year…
[MEDIA=4]
…how did that turn out? Look, you can doubt Darren McFadden and Rashard Mendenhall all you want heading into their rookie seasons, but both are going to shine and shine early. McFadden plays a lot like a Reggie Bush, but with the ability to carry the football 15+ times a game, something Bush isn’t built for. He is the ultimate weapon and can score from anywhere on the field. He is no AP, but he has some of AP’s abilities… that’s going to spell top 25 fantasy production (with ease) in 2008.
This guy is one of the toughest runners we have ever seen. He can turn a negative run into a 12-yard gain. He isn’t the fasted runner, but he has quickness one cannot measure, especially side-to-side. Obviously the drafting of Felix Jones isn’t a great thing for Barber’s ‘08 value, but Jones isn’t built to be a full-time runner in this league, so Barber shouldn’t have any problem duplicating last year’s numbers (1,200 total yards and 10 rushing touchdowns). The depressing part is that if the Cowboys didn’t draft the speedy Arkansas runner, Barber may have had first-round value entering 2008.
Ronnie Brown was off to an unbelievable start last season, but he went down in Week 7 with a torn ACL. Before tearing his knee, the Dolphins running back ripped off 991 total yards and 5 scores. He was truly the best fantasy back in the game, although, two things are going against Brown in 2008. First, Brown’s knee won’t be 100% healthy until 2009, no matter what he says. Second, Cam Cameron is no longer in Miami. Cameron, as we stated above in McGahee’s breakdown, is huge for fantasy running backs, so his departure hurts Brown almost as much as the injury. Still, despite all the negatives, Brown and the Dolphins are still doing a solid job piecing things together down in Miami. The team drafted OT Jake Long with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft and they should continue to improve their 2008 offensive upside throughout the off-season. Don’t expect top 5-8 fantasy numbers in ‘08, something Brown would have been capable of if healthy and if playing under Cameron, but top 15-20 overall fantasy numbers isn’t out of the question.
This is about as far as we can let Lewis slip. We wouldn’t fault anyone for selecting him in the late second-round, as he has posted at least 1,100 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. Jamal even caught two touchdowns last year, which puts his 2007 touchdown total at 12. Jamal may not be the most reliable dynasty runner, but he should be in for another 1,100 yards and 8-10 total scores in ‘08.
At 6-4, 260+ pounds, it’s hard to count on Jacobs, but if you can land him this late in August, you may want to grab him. Even if he misses a handful of games in ‘08, he is a top 15 overall talent when on the field, so grab Ahmad Bradshaw a round or two earlier than his average draft position and you should be set. However, do be sure to monitor his recent wrist injury; Jacobs reportedly had surgery on his wrist and just got out of a cast.
We tried to warn everyone about Colston last year. While many were doubting him and labeling him the next “Michael Clayton”, we were assuring fantasy owners that he was an underrated WR1. Expect another 90 reception season out of the Saints receiver, which will produce at least 1,200 receiving yards and 9-12 scores.
Injuries are the only thing standing in the way of Andre Johnson and a 1,300/12TD season. Given that one could go RB/RB in 2008 and still land Johnson in the third, waiting on WRs might be the best approach to take in August fantasy drafts.
Jake Delhomme suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3 of last year, but in the team’s first two games of the season, Steve Smith averaged 7.5 receptions, 135.5 yards receiving and 2TDs per contest. Three of the four touchdowns came in Week two. For some odd reason, no one remembers how good Smith was with Delhomme healthy, but memories will soon be refreshed. We’d say 90 receptions, 1,100 yards and 10-12 scores sounds about right for Smith in 2008.
Fitz is only going to get better, especially as Leinart develops his game. While we wouldn’t count on another season with 100 receptions, the Cardinals elite talent should be able to pull in roughly 85-90 balls for 1,200-1,300 yards and 10-12TDs.
While some will consider this high for a rookie sharing carries, we believe that Mendy will be running at full speed by mid-season. Again, not to beat a dead horse, but keep in mind that Joseph Addai didn’t technically start even one game in his rookie campaign, and Maurice Jones-Drew started just one (and put up roughly top 10 fantasy RB numbers). Mendy, who Smitty believes is the next big thing, has the luxury of running in an extremely potent offense… he could have such a phenomenal second-half of the season in ‘08, he may just be a top 5-8 overall pick heading into both 2009 redraft leagues and 2009 dynasty leagues.
The Panthers didn’t draft Jonathan Stewart to let him sit on the bench. DeAngelo Williams could get roughly half the touches early on in the ‘08 season, but he isn’t built to carry the rock 20+ times a game - J-Stew is!
We obviously know where the Bengals stand with Chad Johnson’s trade demands, as they refused to trade the WR for some seriously solid offers. Clearly we’re calling Chad’s bluff right here - If playing in ‘08, Chad should catch at least 80 passes for 1,200-1,300 and 9-11 scores.
Last year, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,154 yards and scored 34 total touchdowns. With Holmes ready to breakout, and with the addition of Mendenhall in the backfield, Roethlisberger could be in for his best season yet. We wouldn’t be shocked at all if Big Ben threw for 3,600 yards, scored 36 total touchdowns and had just 10-11 INTs in 2008.
This is a good spot for Housh. If Chad Johnson follows through and sits out ‘08, Houshmandzadeh actually loses value, as he’d start facing elite defensive backs.
Again, we’re assuming Chad plays in this upcoming season - If he doesn’t, Palmer should be knocked down at least one round.
Burress had a great ‘07, pulling in 70 balls for 1,025 and 12TDs. Expect a bit more yardage and around 8-10 scores in ‘08.
Matt Leinart is healthy and looking good, plus the Cards have one of the league’s best back-ups in Kurt Warner… both Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are in a great situation in AZ, even though the team plans to run the ball more in the near future. Boldin only had 71 receptions last year for 853 yards, but he did have 9 scores. Expect at least 80 receptions, 1,000 yards and 8-9 scores in this upcoming fantasy season.
If healthy, Gates (toe surgery) should have no problem at least duplicating last year’s numbers, which were 75 receptions, 984 yards and 9 touchdowns. Gates’ timetable for recovery is 4-6 months — He had surgery on his toe in late February, so monitor his progress as we near June-July.
Ced Benson’s recent arrest almost locks Matt Forte in as the Bears’ opening day starter, but a lot can happen between now and September. For now, Forte looks like a real bargain, as he will slip relatively far given how much upside he has. If starting for the Bears by at least Week 5 or so, Forte could put together a 1,000-yard season with 7-8 scores.
Rudi is tough to rank, as the team could still sign a guy like Shaun Alexander. We should all have a better idea where to rank Rudi as we near August, but if forced to rank him now, this is where we would put him.
Don’t reach too far for Jones in early drafts, but if he gets the touches, he could be a 2008 steal.
For some reason it’s tough to take Welker this high, but the proof is in the production. Another 1,000-yard season with 7-8 scores sounds about right for Welker in 2008.
One could argue that Witten should be the first tight end taken on draft day. It’s hard to imagine him duplicating last year’s 96 receptions for 1,145, but the tight end should have no problem duplicating his touchdown total (7). In the reception and yardage departments, fantasy owners can safely expect 80 receptions for about 950 yards.
As we said up above, the Saints will use Reggie Bush in all the right ways in 2008, something that will benefit Drew Brees. We’re going to projected Brees to throw for 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns and 14 INTs in 2008.
One eventually has to invest in FWP, and this seems like a safe spot. He will still get touches in Pittsburgh, and even though we’re extremely high on rookie Rashard Mendenhall, sometimes rookies get injured if not signed and in camp on time… monitor FWP’s ADP entering your August drafts, he could be a real bargain.
To talk about this mock, visit its official thread on our FFX Forums.
Loading ...
Loading ...