Let Someone Else Take The Risk

Published: 05/14/2008 2:02 am by Smitty in Fantasy Articles

The players listed below are going to be taken all over the place come August fantasy drafts. Some fantasy football owners will believe in these guys in 2008, some will not. Well, here is a list of fantasy football players that I recommend avoiding come draft day. Unless they fall too far, let someone else take the risk!

Brandon Marshall | WR DEN

Brandon Marshall is extremely overrated right now if you ask me… While it’s possible that he changes his ways and puts his poor decision-making behind him, he still has has a huge obstacle ahead of him - getting healthy. Marshall cut an artery, a vein, a nerve, two tendons and three muscles in his right arm while horsing around with his older brother earlier this off-season. While many suspect that these injuries won’t affect his long-term health, or his 2008 play, that is a lot to hope for.

Even if Marshall does battle back to 100 percent by Week 1, there are now some serious health issues surrounding Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler was recently diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes, something that could affect his ability to consistently practice and even finish games. Cutler is expected to wear an insulin pump during practice sessions and in pre-game warm-ups, however, the quarterback will take the device off for the three hours that it takes to play a game and he will keep a close watch on his glucose levels, possibly checking the levels after each quarter. On top of all of this, Cutler actually lost close to 35 pounds throughout the 2007 season, so his condition is extremely serious and all of this could affect the value of WR Brandon Marshall.

It isn’t that Marshall isn’t talented, there is just a lot going against him. I recommend that 2008 redraft leaguers take a pass on Marshall in the early rounds come draft day. The best advice I can give fantasy owners in 2008 is to focus on running backs and a quarterback in the first four rounds in August drafts, then grab your WR2 and WR3 in the 5-8 rounds. I’d rather have a Lee Evans over Marshall this upcoming season, but I will certainly take Evans around his ADP, not up where fantasy owners are currently reaching to grab Marshall. If you haven’t already, I urge you to roll through our Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator, which is updated year-round and allows you to roll through mock draft after mock draft in a matter of minutes. Select what pick you would like, your league size… then draft away! Test out different strategies and you will see for yourself how much better a team looks when Marshall is passed on and a Boldin is grabbed a round or two later. Mock it up!

Ask The Experts

Question

Should I trade Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall for the 1.04 rookie pick and Michael Turner?

Answer

I would accept that offer without hesitation. Even though he is not currently getting second-round respect, Michael Turner has top 15 overall value (with the upside for a lot more). As for the long-term, I’d even go so far as to say I’d rather have Matt Forte or Kevin Smith over Marshall and both might actually get drafted ahead of Marshall as early as next season. I wouldn’t even be surprised if at least one has an ADP near Marshall’s come this August. You’re arguably getting the two best players in this deal. I’d guess that you could even turn Forte or Smith into a WR equivalent to Marshall, even if you have to wait a few weeks into the 2008 season… then you gain a Michael Turner for almost nothing. I’d make the deal no question!

Earnest Graham | RB TB

I’ll be the first to admit that I have been high on Earnest Graham here and there since his fantasy arrival last season, but when it comes down to it, too many runners emerge like Graham and often fail to reproduce their breakout campaigns. It would be different if Graham was a young runner, but he is 28 years-old. He still has a few good years left and he has very little mileage on his tires, but only the Bucs are going to sign him to a long-term deal and we’re still waiting on that to happen. If Graham lands a huge deal, which is unlikely, I would certainly take a look at altering my evaluation, but until then, Graham doesn’t feel like a RB2… and that’s the kind of value that he is currently commanding. Unless he falls to you in the third- to fourth-round, let someone else draft Graham to start. The upside is there, but so is the risk. A RB2 should have less risk.



ADPs Changing For The Better

These once “overvalued” players are starting to fall too far in early 2008 Redraft Mock Drafts… These players are beginning to develop solid draft values based on their current ADPs (average draft positions). Take advantage!

Darren McFadden | RB OAK

(Current ADP: 34-44 Overall)

A runner with top 25 overall upside - This ADP has steal written all over it!

Rashard Mendenhall | RB PIT

(Current ADP: 50-60 Overall)

Same thing here as with McFadden - Mendy could put up top 25 overall numbers in his rookie season. I doubt one can get the Steelers runner this late come August, but he may still be very underrated.

Lee Evans | WR BUF

(Current ADP: 48-55 Overall)

Again, make Evans your WR2 or WR3 and draft your RBs and QB early in 2008!

Donovan McNabb | QB PHI

(Current ADP: 70-75 Overall)

There is very little risk and almost all reward getting this guy in the 70-75 range.

Brandon Jacobs | RB NYG

(Current ADP: 28-35 Overall)

I’m not a big believer in Jacobs, so if I’m calling him a bargain, you may want to take notice. Third- to fourth-round value is a steal — The risk is extremely minimized, but do grab Bradshaw!

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