Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice: Week 1

Published: 05/22/2008 5:27 pm by Smitty in Start Bench Advice

Below is our Start and Bench Advice for Week 1 of the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Our "Who To Start & Who To Bench" advice is loaded with fantasy football player projections, fantasy analysis and straight up bold predictions.

Also, be sure to check out all of our updated Week 1 Player Projections, which are updated right up until kickoff. For previous Start Bench Advice, click here.

Who Do I Start and Who Do I Sit?

Brandon Jacobs (vs. WAS) or Maurice Jones-Drew (@TEN)?
Smitty is a contributor to Fantasy Football Xtreme

I like both Brandon Jacobs and Maurice Jones-Drew in Week 1, but I firmly believe that fantasy owners should never bench Jones-Drew in 2008. The "Human Bowling Ball" is one of my top breakout candidates this upcoming season, and I think he will end up being a top 7-10RB at Week 16’s end. Sure, MJD faces the Titans in Week 1, a team that was No. 5 against the run last year, but Jacobs’ match-up is no better, as he faces the Redskins (No. 4 against the run in 2007). Plus, starting and benching MJD based on a rushing match-up is never a smart move, as he can burn a defense rushing or receiving the football. I expect Jacobs to have over 80 yards and possibly a score in Week 1, but I’m expecting well over 100 total yards and at least 1TD out of Jones-Drew.


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This is a tough call, because I like both running backs this season. Both have relatively tough match-ups, but Brandon Jacobs is a special runner and can punish a defense in the fourth-quarter. I believe the Giants will be up in this contest when that fourth-quarter comes around, so Jacobs could have over 100 yards rushing and a touchdown in Week 1. Maurice Jones-Drew might get close to those numbers, though, so both are good starts.


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While Brandon Jacobs has a good matchup in the NFL season opener against the Redskins, I am one who normally advocates starting your high draft picks week in and week out, unless there is a compelling reason not to. I don’t see a good reason here, and that means Maurice Jones-Drew should be in your lineup. The minor ankle sprain MoJo suffered last week should have no affect on his playing time in the opener, so consider the “human bowling ball” ready to roll. You drafted MoJo with one of your first few picks, so stick him in your lineup with confidence and expect some big numbers against a Titans rush defense which was one of the worst this preseason. I expect 125 total yards, at least one score, and a 2-4 receptions when all is said and done.




DeAngelo Williams (@SD) or Jonathan Stewart (@SD)?

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This is a tough question to answer and fantasy owners will likely hit and miss on this question throughout the first-half of the 2008 season. As for Week 1, DeAngelo Williams is playing the "Everything you can do I can do better" game, and he is playing it well. Jonathan Stewart could grab the starting gig at some point this season, but until Williams gets hurt, develops a case of the fumbles, or consistently doesn’t perform (not likely by the looks of it), this is a 60/40 split in favor of Williams. I expect both backs to have a score in this contest, but Williams will have about 90 rushing yards to Stewart’s 40-50.


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This question is even tough than the question above. I like DeAngelo Williams and he is playing tough football, but Jonathan Stewart is the more physical and I think the Chargers could surprise everyone with a heavy dose of J-Stew. I expect Williams to rack-up a respectable 80 yards, but Stewart will get to 100 yards and have the score in this game.


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This is likely a decision that will be made each and every week for the owners of these two, as I don’t see either taking full command of this job anytime soon. That said, right now this looks like DeAngelo Williams’ team, as he has clearly come to camp this season focused on stepping up his game. Jonathan Stewart has played well too, but Williams seems a step quicker to me and is entering his third season in this offense, which will give him the edge in playing time and the trust of the coaching staff in critical situations. It’s a gut call for sure, but until Stewart consistently outperforms Williams over the course of this season, it will hard to make a case that he should get the starting nod for your squad. As it stands now, I expect Williams to get a 60/40 split with Stewart, if not more, and that should translate into more points for your team.




Edgerrin James (@SF) or Matt Forte (@IND)?

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Edgerrin James has a solid match-up in Week 1 against the 49ers, a team that ranked 22nd against the run last season. Matt Forte also has a solid match-up in Week 1, as he faces the Colts. The Colts may have finished 15th against the run last season, but the unit was abused in the preseason, allowing Michael Turner to rumble for 113 yards on just four carries, and DeAngelo Williams to rush for 55 yards and 2TDs on just nine carries. Carolina had over 200 rushing yards in that preseason outing against the Colts, so it’s safe to say that Indy won’t be 15th against the run in 2008. I expect both rushers to get near that 90-yard mark this upcoming week, but with Tim Hightower becoming a major goal line threat in Arizona this year, Forte appears to have a better shot at getting in the end zone looking forward. This makes Forte the safer choice in my opinion, but it is fairly close, and I do worry that the Colts will get off to an early lead and force the Bears to abandon the run… despite that risk, I stick with Forte.


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I have to go with Edgerrin James on this one, who seems like a safe bet for 80 yards and a touchdown. Matt Forte could earn those numbers, but not in this game. The Colts should crush the Bears and force Kyle Orton to pass, pass, pass.


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This is a very easy call for me, as I see no reason to give Matt Forte the start over Edgerrin James until he proves he can be an effective runner for the Bears. There are more than a few things playing against Forte right now, but first and foremost has to be the fact that the Bears are absolutely abysmal in the passing game, and that is not something a rookie like Forte will be able to overcome. I also expect the Bears to be behind by more than a touchdown for most of this game, so what little running they might muster will be abandoned by the second half. My gut tells me there’s also a good chance that Garrett Wolfe sees some action if Forte is not getting it done, mostly based on how well he played in the preseason. James, on the other hand, has a good matchup against a questionable defense in the 49ers, and I expect him to perform well on the road. Unlike the Bears, the Cardinals possess arguably the best WR tandem in the league, and that will help keep the running lanes open. It won’t be the case all season, but I expect RB2 numbers from Edge in this one.




Flex Questions:
Dwayne Bowe (@NE) or Ryan Grant (vs. MIN)?

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This one is easier than it looks. That Minnesota rushing defense is spectacular. They surrendered just seven rushing touchdowns in all of 2007 and gave up just 74.1 rushing yards per game. If you want to trade for Ryan Grant in any of your leagues, I advise that fantasy owners wait until after his Week 1 performance. As for Dwayne Bowe, I expect the Patriots to get off to a quick start, which means the Chief will have to pass like crazy in the second-half of this one. That probably isn’t the best news for Larry Johnson owners in Week 1, but it’s great news for Bowe. The I expect the Chiefs WR to grab roughly six passes for 90 yards and 1TD in Week 1 against the Patriots.


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I realize the Packers face the Vikings, the league’s best run defense, but I still start Ryan Grant over Dwayne Bowe. Bowe will have trouble doing anything against the Patriots, who will focus on containing the Chiefs only deep threat. I see Grant having about 70 yards and a score in Week 1.


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Ryan Grant is a question right now, having pulled a hamstring midway through the preseason and not seeing game action since. Maybe it’s nothing and simply a matter of getting him rested for the regular season, then again maybe not. One thing is for sure, his matchup with the Vikings run defense is a tough one, opponents averaged 74 rushing yards against last season, and the Vikes have picked up right where they left off this preseason. Not good times if you’re Grant, which is why I am taking Dwayne Bowe here. He is a big target and has all the physical tools needed to succeed, and although the QB situation in KC is nothing to write home about, I think he will have a good game against a weak Patriots secondary. I expect Bowe to finish with 6 catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. I don’t think Grant scores in his game and that’s the difference maker for me.




Flex Questions:
Selvin Young (@OAK) or Lee Evans (vs. SEA)?

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Selvin Young will do well in that Denver starting line-up for as long as it lasts, but that’s another issue. As for Week 1, the Denver running back couldn’t have asked for a better match-up. Oakland gave up 145.9 yards per game on the ground in 2007, with a league-leading 24 surrendered rushing touchdowns. Twenty-four! Even though I firmly believe that Young won’t start even 10 games in 2008, this is a fantastic week to own the guy (then trade him!). Fantasy owners can count on 100+ rushing yards and AT LEAST one score against that awful Oakland rushing defense. As for Lee Evans, I still like the guy a lot this year and think that he is a fine start in Week 1, but fantasy owners, if in this situation, have to go with a rusher that is facing a defense that gave up an average of 145 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing TDs per game the year prior.


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I’m going to let Bills QB Trent Edwards impress me before I bench a starting running back in favor of a Bills’ wide receiver. Plus, Selvin Young has a great match-up against an awful Raiders rushing defense. Young should have no problem getting 90-100 yards and one score in Week 1.


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Selvin Young draws a good matchup against a Raiders team which has had real problems stopping the run over the last few years. Contrast that to a Raiders’ pass defense, which should be stellar this season, and you have a game plan that will likely be built around handing the ball off to Young until the Raiders prove they can stop him. If you drafted Young, you know that his shelf life may not be very long, and drawing a matchup with Oakland is exactly what he will need to keep the job for another week. The other choice, Lee Evans, could have a decent game too, but I think the matchup for Young dictates you give him the start; I’m expecting 100 total yards and a score for Young in this one.





Smitty On Week 1

Smitty is a contributor to Fantasy Football Xtreme

Updated Last: 9/2/08

It looks like Derek Anderson (concussion) and Chad Ocho Cinco are going to be ready for Week 1. Anderson already practiced on Monday, as did Braylon Edwards (foot). Chad claims that his shoulder is 100 percent healthy. We obviously don’t believe that his torn labrum is "all of the sudden" healed, but we’re starting to wonder how injured he really is. The key to owning Chad this year, as I’ve written about in my 2008 Handcuffing article, is to handcuff him to WR Chris Henry (suspended through Week 4). This is that rare wide receiver handcuff that could save your season.

Defenses change from year to year, but the Atlanta Falcons face the Detroit Lions in Week 1, a rushing defense that ranked 23rd against the run last season. That Lions defensive unit surrendered 119.4 rushing yards and 1.18 (31st) rushing TDs per game. Welcome to the Michael Turner show! I’m expecting my 2008 breakout candidate to easily rush for 100 yards and a score in Week 1, but he is absolutely capable of more.

As I stated above with the Selvin Young question, the Raiders have one of the worst rushing defenses that I’ve ever seen, but guess what team also finished inside the bottom three last year against the run? Denver. The Broncos might run all over Oakland in Week 1, but Darren McFadden and gang should have no problem doing the same thing against Denver, at least early on. I expect Denver to win this battle, and I’m not even sure Oakland can hang in this contest heading into the third-quarter, but D-Mac might have a surprisingly solid debut. Last season, Denver gave up 142.6 rushing yards per game.

Laurence Maroney, a player I’m not very high on this season, could have a very solid Week 1 outing. Why? The Patriots face the Chiefs, a defensive unit that ranked in the bottom five against the run last year. Given that New England will likely crush the Chiefs, that Patriots offensive attack could be running the ball a ton in the second-half of this one. I hate to say it, because NE is so unpredictable when running the ball, but Maroney could explode in Week 1 (if healthy). If you own Maroney, you may want to consider trading him after this Week 1 outing. I’m not saying that Maroney can’t have a great 2008, because he is extremely talented, but given how the guy (and his situation) have burned so many in the past, it may be safe to capitalize on any early success he may have in order to trade into a safer situation.

Get ready for Thomas Jones to have a very solid game against a Miami rushing defense that ranked in the bottom three last season in both yards surrendered per game (153.5) and rushing TDs surrendered per game (18). Jones should have no problem rushing for over 100 yards and grabbing at least one total score. That Jets offense is going to destroy that Miami defense in Week 1.


Week 1 Player Projections | 2008

Chiefs at Patriots

Sunday at 1pm EST

Player
Match-Up
Week 1 Projections
QB Tom Brady
vs. KC
300 yards, 3TDs, 0 INTs
RB Laurence Maroney
70 / 12 yards
RB Sammy Morris
35 / 10 yards
WR Randy Moss
6 rec, 100 yards, 2TDs
WR Wes Welker
7 rec, 88 yards, 1TD
WR Jabar Gaffney
3 rec, 40 yards
TE Ben Watson
3 rec, 33 yards

Player
Match-Up
Week 1 Projections
QB Brodie Croyle
@NE
215 yards, 1TD, 2 INTs
RB Larry Johnson
79/40 yards, 1TD
RB Kolby Smith
9 / 5 yards
WR Dwayne Bowe
5 rec, 75 yards, 1TD
WR Devard Darling
4 rec, 45 yards
WR Jeff Webb
1 rec, 8 yards
TE Tony Gonzalez
4 rec, 42 yards

View All Week 1 Player Projections

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1 Comment so far

  1. Montana September 6th, 2008 7:42 pm

    I agree with your outlook for Young this week & as an owner, I pray he does indeed go off so I can trade him ASAP. Just curious Smitty & Ballgame - if you had to choose 1 between LJ & Young in week 1, who would you put into your line up? Excellent read guys & love the site…..keep up the GREAT work!

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