These two questions were asked several different ways over the last week, so I decided to address them in “rant” fashion — Enjoy.
Smitt, I am in a 12 team dynasty league and the league has a basic scoring format that is not ppr. I was thinking of trading Ladainian Tomlinson now while I can still get something. What do you think I should go after? I also have Brady, Lynch, R. Moss, S. Smith (car), A. Gonzalez, A. Gates and the 1.01. Please help.
- James G.
James, I have one word for you — Stop! Stop right where you are and think about what you’re saying my man! Don’t trade the guy with the “while I still can” mentality… If you want to trade him and get some youth, fine, go after it, but trade him like the top five dynasty running back running back that he is! Don’t think that Tomlinson is a top five dynasty running back anymore? I realize Tomlinson turns 29 just before the 2008 NFL Season begins, but if Priest Holmes can rush for 1,615 yards, pull in 672 receiving yards and score 24 total TDs at the age of 29, so can Tomlinson.
Not only was Holmes a monster at the age of 29, he exploded again the following season when he was 30 going on 31, posting 1,420 rushing yards, 690 receiving yards and 27TDs (2003). Granted LT2 has carried the football over 300 times in all seven of his NFL seasons, but the elite talent has been relatively healthy for seven straight seasons (aside from his recent 2007 MCL injury) and he takes care of himself like no other.
Again, trade Tomlinson if you want youth, but demand top five-like talent in return, even if in a package-format. That said, with the team that you currently have listed above, I’d drive Tomlinson for another season and go after your league’s title. I know two years sounds short my man, but it isn’t, even in a dynasty league! If you look too far into the future, the “now” will pass you right by.
Ideas for a trade: A package of players like Michael Turner (or MJD-type) & a Marques Colston… or one single player like Frank Gore… or the 1.02 rookie pick with a major upgrade from Anthony Gonzalez
- Smitty, Fantasy Football Xtreme
Hey guys I need some advice with my dynasty team. I was offered Calvin Johnson for Larry Johnson and don’t know what to do. You guys seem to think he is worth more but I cant decide. I like Calvin a lot and think this could workout well if LJ is in his final year and I don’t want to be left with nothing. My WRs are good but thin as I start Housh, Boldin and have Driver in my third spot. My running backs are LJ, Portis and Jacobs and my QB is Brees. We only start 1QB and 2RBs. My TE is Heap. Scoring is standard but QBs get 6pts for TD passes, but that’s the only strange part. Thanks in advance.
- Guru Mike
Guru Mike, my advice is to get more if you plan on moving Larry Johnson. If you can’t trade him for more, I move someone else like Jacobs. L.J. is 28, but he has only played in 56 NFL games and has only carried the football 1,050 times. I’m beating a dead horse here, as I’ve talked about L.J. and his lack of mileage a lot so far this off-season, but it’s clearly worth repeating.
I know the argument that most people have… that L.J was overworked in 2006 (416 carries), but he got a whole lot of rest sitting out the final eight games of the ‘07 season… and again, his overall workload is not insane! To put Larry Johnson’s 56 games played and 1,050 NFL carries into perspective, Steven Jackson has played in 57 games and has carried the football 971 times. If you add in receptions for both players, Johnson has touched the ball just 16 more times than Steven Jackson in his NFL career. Now, Johnson is 28 and Jackson will be 25 this July, so I’m not arguing that L.J. has as much time left as Jackson as a top back, but if anyone thinks that it’s impossible for Johnson to play at an elite level for at least another two seasons, that person should get a check-up form the neck up.
Many fantasy owners are going to suggest that L.J. proved to be on the decline last season, but that isn’t entirely accurate. The Kansas City running back was definitely off to a slow start last year, but his schedule was extremely tough early on in the 2007 season and he didn’t have any room to run the football. That changed as the season went on, as L.J. was back to his elite form before going down in Week 9 with a season-ending foot injury. Leading up to the injury, L.J. had scored four touchdowns in his final three games and had at least 95 total yards in four of his last five outings (with three 100-yard games).
Still feel like Johnson, who has just 1,050 NFL carries to his name, is on the decline? Chew on this: Clinton Portis has 1,710 career carries, yet he has a ton of dynasty appeal. Again, like Jackson, Portis is a lot younger, but I’m not arguing that L.J. can outlast those backs… what I am arguing is that L.J. can roll with those two stud rushers for another two seasons (given his limited NFL workload). Still need comparisons? How about this: Brian Westbrook will be 29 when the season begins, and like L.J., he has a limited amount of career carries to his name (1,014)… yet Westy gets solid dynasty respect. Why is L.J. looked at so differently? Need one more? Jamal Lewis will be 29 in September and has 1,822 career carries to his name, yet even he gets some 1-2 year respect in dynasty formats.
Ok, so back to your question… I like Calvin Johnson, and I think that he has top 10-15WR upside, but at 28, and with only 56 games played, Johnson commands a lot more than a C.J.. If you want to trade L.J., trade him for a top 5WR (and possibly more along with that), or don’t trade him at all. You could probably get more for Portis, or Jacobs, and go after your league’s title this season.
I have found that leagues are split down the middle when it comes to the value of Larry Johnson. Half of most leagues doubt that he has even one elite season left, the other half feels that he could go another 1-2 years (but at least 1 year) as a top 10 producer. Find those owners that still believe, especially the owners that want to win now. If collecting youth is your mission, attack by all means, but attack stuff like the 1.02 rookie pick (and some), or a very underrated Michael Turner or Reggie Bush (with more on top of that). That’s the kind of value you need… second-round talent that has top 10 upside… otherwise you’re giving L.J. away at almost no risk to the owner doing the buying. Good luck my friend and see you on the forums.
- Smitty, Fantasy Football Xtreme
on this post - (6) Posts 
Loading ...
Loading ...