Below are some sleepers worth talking about as we head toward July.
In our recent Expert Fantasy Football Draft, we were able to grab Turner at 3.05. That’s what you call value, because Turner easily has top 15RB upside — And that’s being conservative. Now, Turner doesn’t have a long resume in the NFL, but whenever his number has been called, the speedster has stepped up in a major way.
In Week 5 (Denver) last year, The Burner ran the football just 10 times for 147 yards and a score. His 5.5 career yards-per-carry average (on 228 carries) is extremely impressive - His ability to break off long runs is even more impressive. On just 228 carries, Turner has managed to throw down long runs of 83, 74 and 73. Those are some of the longest runs in Chargers’ franchise history. The 26 year-old running back is now a starter in the NFL, and although many believe that Atlanta will have a tough time blocking for Turner in ‘08, he has far too much upside to pass up at his current ADP (3.07-4.07). If you should be so lucky to be able to land the Falcons’ starter as your third or fourth overall player, don’t hesitate! He may just end up being a top 10 running back when all is said and done at Week 16’s end.
Smitty’s Projections: Currently I have my Turner Projections as: 310 carries for 1,364 rushing yards (4.4), 30 receptions for 300 yards and 11 total touchdowns.
Maurice Jones-Drew went nuts in his rookie campaign back in 2006, rushing the football 166 times for 941 yards and 13TDs. He also pulled in 46 passes for 436 yards and 2TDs. that’s an unbelievable rookie season! Well, Jones-Drew took a small step backwards in 2007, as Fred Taylor finished with 223 carries in 2007 (he also had 1,202 yards). In what is considered a “disappointing” sophomore season, Jones-Drew still managed to produce 1,175 total yards and 9 total scores. That’s actually not a bad year, but it’s all about expectations in this game.
Because of his “mediocre” 2007 fantasy numbers, my guess is that you will occasionally see Jones-Drew fall to bargain-type value in 2008 drafts. My advice? Take full advantage of the “what have you done for me lately” phenomenon if it happens to strike your league! Most everyone considers the 23 year-old an eventual stud, but for some reason, many will still doubt The Human Bowling Ball entering ‘08. In our recent Expert Fantasy Football Draft, Jones-Drew went at 2.07, which is just about right. I think that he is actually worth a grab even a few spots higher (if need be). If for some reason he falls to the bottom of the second in your upcoming draft, don’t even think about it — Invest!
Smitty’s Projections: The Jags runner is about to get his first 260+ touch season. Currently I have my Jones-Drew Projections as: 220 carries, 1,078 rushing yards (4.9), 46 receptions for 438 yards and 12 total touchdowns.
Pittsburgh didn’t invest their first-round pick on a back just to have him ride the bench. Willie Parker had two rushing touchdowns last year, so the Steelers will surely use Mendy as their goal line back in ‘08. Even if PIT works their rookie rusher in slowly, I see Mendy finishing out his rookie campaign strong and reaching the end zone 8-10 times. Bold? Maybe, but Pittsburgh has a potent offense and the offensive attack is often going to put Mendy and that rushing attack in great field position. Pittsburgh’s line has many fantasy owners concerned, but the offense is only getting better and the success of that offense is going to limit eight-man fronts. I believe the line will fill their holes well, shift the right pieces around this time and turn some heads in ‘08.
Like Mendy, I see McFadden having a very strong rookie year. I don’t think we will see a 2008 rookie runner have the same kind of success that Adrian Peterson had last year, but I do believe that this year’s rookie RB class could produce 3-4 future top 30 overall picks. This class is that promising! I expect both McFadden and Mendy to finish right around 13-15 range for 2008 fantasy rushers.
Bowe had a monster rookie season. Monster! The rook pulled in 70 receptions for 995 yards (two 100-yard games) and 5TDs. He had 10 games with at least 4 receptions. If there is a 6+ round breakout WR this year that is capable of being a top 10WR in 2008, it might just be Dwayne Bowe. I have my concerns about Croyle, but K.C. still managed to get Bowe 70 receptions last season. Expect a huge 2008 out of Bowe!
Jerry Porter will be 30 when the 2008 season begins, but he should still be in his prime for at least 2-3 seasons. Injuries are always a concern with this character, but seeing how much Oakland crippled Randy Moss (and then watching him go nuts elsewhere), I wonder if the same thing will happen to Porter (but of course to a lesser degree). Porter could very well end up being one of the middle-round steals of 2008 drafts.
Even if Ahmad Bradshaw gets suspended for a couple games due to his recent probation violation, it sounds like all of this trouble, even the violation, occurred after the Giants drafted him. This means that he has kept his word, which was to stay out of trouble since signing with the Giants. Even if the league holds it against him, his coaches might not. With Jacobs‘ injury history, Bradshaw is sure to get some major playing time in 2008. Bradshaw has tremendous dynasty appeal given the cost, so go after him on the cheap before it’s too late.
Pierre Thomas’ ADP is right around the 11- to 14-round range, which means that he will cost you very little to acquire in ‘08 drafts/trades. Given his ability and situation, he could be a huge steal in August drafts. Someone is going to get a grip of carries up the middle this year, and I think it’s Thomas.
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