
Today is August 1, which means that we’re days away from seeing our first preseason game. With August drafts right around the corner, it’s time to talk about some 2008 Fantasy Football Sleepers.
If you want to wait on drafting a quarterback in 2008, yet still have a solid shot at getting top five fantasy numbers, well, I suggest that you invest in Derek Anderson. Anderson’s ADP is in the 5.07-6.07 range, which is a steal considering how close he can get to the big three this year (Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning). After the big dogs, I think Anderson, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger are all relatively close – Any single one of them could finish as next year’s fourth-best fantasy quarterback. The difference between all these QBs? Only Derek Anderson is slipping into the sixth- and seventh-rounds.
So, you may be asking yourself… Why are so many doubting Anderson’s almost-inevitable breakout campaign? Well, mainly because his production dropped off near the end of the 2007 season. Through his first seven games (and he didn’t technically start Week 1), Anderson averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns and 249 passing yards per contest, but he then got a bit inconsistent from Week 8 on, having five multiple-touchdown performances to go along with three zero-touchdown outings. So why doesn’t his inconsistent play worry us? Well, for starters, every quarterback is inconsistent from time to time. Even last season, Romo, in his breakout year, only threw three total touchdowns in all of December – Inconsistent happens. More importantly, a quarterback is always going to be a bit spotty in his first season under center, especially when forced into the role after the season is already underway. If you remember, Romo (2006) and Palmer (2004) became starters while the 2006 and 2004 seasons were already in progress — And both struggled at times as they became comfortable. Romo had more INTs than touchdowns that December of 2006, and Palmer had his own problems in 2004.
The point here is that inconsistency is to be expected when a quarterback takes over for the first time… the important trend here to acknowledge is that the breakout year for guys like Palmer and Romo – And now Anderson – is almost always in that second season starting. The second season is almost always the explosive one.
We predicted Palmer’s breakout campaign on live radio entering August of 2005 and we pimped Romo right here on FFX like no other (projecting top 5 numbers when most Sites didn’t even project him as starting material).
If you don’t want tickets to the Derek Anderson show in 2008, no worries, but don’t say we didn’t warn you with the same passion that we did with Palmer and Romo back in 2005 and 2007.
Pierre Thomas doesn’t have a long resume in the NFL, but the Saints are going to need a between-the-tackles guy in ’08, and we think Thomas has a strong shot at winning the job. Some fantasy owners have actually asked me if there is risk in drafting Thomas this year, because of the presence of Deuce McAllister… Well, this is how I normally answer this question (without even talking about McAllister’s injury issues): In Week 17 last year against the Bears, Thomas carried the ball 20 times for 105 yards (5.3) and caught 12 passes for 121 and a touchdown. Pierre Thomas’ ADP is in the 12th- to 13th-round… any questions?
I love this kid. Bradshaw has to be one of my favorite deep running backs to draft this year. He has stud-like talent and is in a great system that will produce… and Bradshaw, who has an ADP in the 9th-round, is backing up a 6-4, 264-pound starter… again, any questions regarding risk on this topic?
I’m starting to like this strategy a lot, because you can draft a stud running back in the first-round and then follow that selection up with back-to-back stud WRs… then you step in and draft Willie Parker and follow that up with Rashard Mendenhall (a round or two later, if possible, as Mendy has been falling into the 6th- and 7th-rounds in a lot of recent drafts). This strategy has its risks, as you’re wasting two draft selections in the first seven rounds and you’re using those two selections on one starting slot, but it also provides a fantasy line-up with a lot of security, even if the handcuffed-runners share carries early on. This strategy would work best if you could land FWP in the 4th-round (be careful, as some leagues are too high on FWP), Derek Anderson in the 5th-round and Rashard Mendenhall in the 6th-round. This approach produces one deceptively solid line-up in my opinion.
Let’s say you had the No. 2 pick, this is a team you could build in a 12-team draft…
Derek Anderson
Adrian Peterson
Willie Parker / Rashard Mendenhall
Braylon Edwards
Marques Colston
Jerry Porter
Todd Heap
Money!
[...] Smitty at Fantasy Football Xtreme gives a rundown on some fantasy sleepers. [...]
That does look like a nice lineup! I’m drafting out of the three hole in a 10-teamer. I’d be happy with that!
Yep, Bronczilla, I plan to go that route in my next expert draft. I’ll keep you posted on it.