Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice: Week 5

Published: 10/01/2008 1:31 am by Smitty in Start Bench Advice

Below is our Start and Bench Advice for Week 5 of the 2008 Fantasy Football season. Our "Who To Start & Who To Bench" advice is loaded with fantasy football player projections, fantasy analysis and straight up bold predictions.

Also, be sure to check out all of our updated Week 5 Player Projections, which are updated right up until kickoff. For previous Start Bench Advice, click here.

Who Do I Start & Who Do I Sit?

Chris Johnson (@BAL) or Jonathan Stewart (vs. KC)?
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It’s so tough to put Chris Johnson on the bench, tough match-up or not, but Jonathan Stewart is facing the Chiefs in Week 5. Stewart still isn’t getting all the carries over in Carolina, but the guy has four rushing touchdowns in four games — That’s already flex worthy… Imagine what he will do once he gets the keys to the starting line-up! Bench Johnson this week if in this situation and start Stewart. J-Stew could be a week or so away from breaking out, but I’m going to roll with this being the magic week. I say 110 yards rushing and two touchdowns!


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You gotta go with Jonathan Stewart at home against the Chiefs. I like Chris Johnson but that Ravens match-up is a rough match-up. Any other week I say start Johnson, but Stewart is gold this week and should get well over 80 yards and a score. Johnson might not get in the end zone and could have trouble matching that yardage.


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Chris Johnson has been phenomenal this season and emerged as the centerpiece of the Titans offense, averaging 20 touches a game. This week Johnson faces a tough Ravens defense on the road, but I think you can still expect some decent numbers out of the rookie, somewhere in the range of 70 yards and a possible TD. I think the safer bet is with Jonathan Stewart against a Chiefs defense ranked dead last versus the run. And although Stewart splits carries with Williams, I think there will be enough yards to go around that both will have very good days – similar to what Darren McFadden and Michael Bush rang up against the Chiefs in week 2.




Reggie Bush (vs. MIN) or Earnest Graham (@DEN)?

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Minny is a tough run defense (3rd) and Denver is not (24th), so it’s easy to say that fantasy owners should start Earnest Graham if in this situation. I mean, the Broncos surrender 132.8 rushing yards per game and have given up 5TDs so far this season. Graham is clearly money in this match-up. That said, because Reggie Bush is so capable in the passing game, it’s hard to count him out merely based on what rushing defense he faces off against. Plus, the Minny defense is third in the league, but they have given up a crazy six rushing touchdowns so far this year. Last year they gave up just seven on the year! All that said, I say start Earnest Graham against the Broncos and expect 100 yards and a touchdown. Bush could produce similar numbers, but because both backs are somewhat close in fantasy value, the match-up clearly decides this one in my opinion.


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The Vikings running defense is one of the best in the business, so I see Drew Brees throwing a lot in Week 5. This means that Reggie Bush has to catch a lot of passes, including a TD reception, in order to outperform Earnest Graham. I have Graham marked down for 100 and a touchdown.


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After seeing the Chiefs put up 33 points against the Broncos, I’m convinced that defense is a sieve – incapable of stopping anyone through the air or on the ground. The only teams giving up more total yards per game are the Rams and Lions, so get Ernest Graham in your lineup and don’t look back. Yes, Reggie Bush will get his points against the Vikings at home in the Monday night spotlight, but I think Graham will out produce him based simply on the favorable matchup.




Lee Evans (@AZ) or Santonio Holmes (@JAC)?

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Both receivers should play well, so for me this is a tough one. I’m a huge Lee Evans fan and I think that he is capable of 80 and a touchdown on any given Sunday, but I really like Santonio Holmes looking forward. I expect Holmes to explode in Weeks 5-16 – He is a guy I recommend trading for now while you still can. Stick him in your WR3 slot and I believe you will have a top 12-15WR moving forward. As for Week 5, five receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown sounds about right.


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Santonio Holmes is back! Lee Evans is a great start, but Holmes is a better start. This could be one of those two touchdown days.


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Neither of these two have lit it up this season, but I think Santonio Holmes and that whole Pittsburgh offense is in a tough spot on the road this week. With a decimated offensive line and Mewelde Moore suddenly the number one option in the backfield, Ben Rothlisberger will be feeling the heat early and often. If you saw Monday night’s game against the Ravens, you know what I’m talking about. That’s why I’m going to go with Lee Evans in this one. He’ll find the going much easier and should have a great day against a Cardinals defense that just gave up six touchdown passes to the Jets. Look for 100 yards and a touchdown (or two) from Evans.




J.T. O’Sullivan (vs. NE) or Jon Kitna (vs. CHI)?

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Go JTO! I am still a believer, but where is Vernon Davis? If JT can get that physical beast involved, imagine how productive that 49ers passing attack could be. Jon Kitna always seems like a sneaky start, as the Lions often play from behind and throw a ton in the fourth quarter, but I still start O’Sullivan and I expect 300 yards and 2TDs this week.


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I don’t like either QB this week and I recommend finding an alternative. If forced to pick one, I guess go with JT O’Sullivan and hope for the best. What is hoping for the best? How about 200 yards, 1TD and 1 INT?


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J.T. O’Sullivan has gone from zero to hero for many a fantasy player this year with all of the disappointments and injuries at the QB position. In spite of all the attention, he has put up mediocre fantasy numbers, throwing only 4 touchdowns in his first four games. I don’t think that gets better this week for JT – especially considering Bill Belicheck and the Patriots were embarrassed at home in their last game and have had two weeks to stew about it and game plan for the 49ers. I’ll go with Jon Kitna playing at home this week – figure 280 yards and a couple of TD passes against a Bears defense that has been very weak against the pass this season.




Julius Jones (@NYG) or Brandon Jacobs (vs. SEA)?

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For some reason I’m not buying the rise of Julius Jones. I like the runner and he has played great, but if he is on my roster, I trade him while his value is high and I actually go attack a runner like Brandon Jacobs. Now, if you invest in Jacobs, you better get Ahmad Bradshaw, but that duo is capable of being a top 10-12RB from this point moving forward. As for Week 5, I expect a huge game out of Jacobs against the Seahawks – I’m going with 130 total yards and at least 1TD.


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I gotta go with Julius Jones, although I like both running backs this week. Brandon Jacobs could easily get a touchdown and have 90-100 rushing, but Julius is on fire and I expect a bit more than I projected for Jacobs. Even against my Giants, I expect Jones to have a big game.


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Julius Jones has been on a hot streak lately, putting up over 125 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. Don’t get excited though, because I think Jones will find the going tougher this week against a rested Giants defense playing at home. And while the Seahawks defense has held some of the top rushers in the league in check over their first three games, they can be a different defense on the road and I see Brandon Jacobs busting out for 90 yards and a score this week.




Matt Forte (@DET) or Jonathan Stewart (vs. KC)?

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As I said above, I love Jonathan Stewart this week and on the year. Matt Forte is a beast as well, but the difference between the two rookies (on the year) is that Forte will hit the rookie wall and Stewart will not. Forte has already carried the football a league-leading 92 times and rookies are use to college seasons, which are much shorter than NFL seasons… Now, if we’re talking just Week 5, I’m going to say that this is a close call and the safe choice is probably Forte. Still, I’m rolling with the Week 5 home run in Stewart, and again, I expect 100+ and 2TDs. Forte is still very capable of having 90+ and a touch this week.


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I say go Matt Forte. Jonathan Stewart will eventually be a top 10RB, but you can’t sit a guy like Forte, who is getting the carries, for a guy that may or may not breakout in this particular week. Forte should be good for 90-100 and a touchdown in Week 5 against the Lions.


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I expect Jonathan Stewart to have a good day against the Chiefs, but not so good that I’m ready to put him in over Matt Forte and that Bears offense. I see the Bears/Lions game as a high scoring affair, and with all the carries Forte has been getting – 23 per game so far – I think he’s the better play this week. My bold prediction for Forte is 125 yards and a pair of touchdowns.




Flex Question:
Steve Slaton (vs. IND) or Santana Moss (@PHI)?

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Both are good starts and I think you have to go Santana Moss if you’re in a PPR league. If you’re not in a PPR league, your decision is a bit tougher, although, I still say go with the hot hand in Santana. Both should have similar yardage, which should be between 80-100, but Moss might get the score.


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I like Steve Slaton this week, but how can you put Santana Moss on the bench? The guy is on fire and I predict that he pulls in 6 passes for 95 and a score. Slaton might get that 80 or so yards rushing, and probably a handful of receiving yards, but I’m not so sure he is going to score every single week.


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That Redskins offense finally seems to be clicking and Santana Moss has been one of the main beneficiaries, catching 22 passes for 384 yards and 2 TDs his last three games. While it’s hard to bench that production, I’m going with Steve Slaton and his matchup against the Colts and their very porous run defense. He should easily go up over 100 yards on the ground and score a TD in this one. If you play in a PPR league, the decision will be tougher and I wouldn’t blame you for penciling Moss in.




2008 Week 5 Player Projections

View All Week 5 Projections

 

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