2009 Expert Mock Drafts: 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0
Ten of us here at Fantasy Football Xtreme decided to roll through a quick 2009 Early Expert Mock Draft with expert commentary. This is a 10-team league, standard scoring (non-PPR) and the assumed line-up requirements are: 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K and 1Def. Because this mock was only five rounds in length, we obviously did not roll though enough rounds to create full teams/line-ups, but we drafted as if this draft would have continued. Enjoy and feel free to leave comments below! The official FFX forum thread for this mock draft can be found here.
Updated Last: 12/2/2008
1.01 – Tavaner – Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN. There is no other RB I’d rather have.
1.02 – X – Clinton Portis, RB, WAS. No flashy player here, just consistent production week in and week out for your fantasy team. He’s exactly what you want out of your first round pick.
1.03 – Ballgame – Frank Gore, RB, SF. Westy may have even more injury problems next year.
1.04 – Zach – Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI. Injuries concern me a little, but he is a top 2-3 overall player per start for at least two more years.
1.05 – Matt – LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SD. My first thought is Turner, but I just can’t pass up LT2 at No. 5. San Diego is having a down year, and because I still think he has a shot at being the No. 1 overall player next year, I can’t pass him up at No. 5.
1.06 – Smitty – Michael Turner, RB, ATL. Believe it or not, I have a tough time passing up on Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson right here, but everyone knows that Turner is my boy. I expect nothing less than a 1,200+ season and 10-14TDs in 2009.
1.07 – Yarco – Joseph Addai, RB, IND. Wow. Really? Next year will clearly be the year you want a later first-round pick, because you can land a top 3 talent like Addai!
1.08 – Craphonso – Marion Barber, RB, DAL. He continues to be doubted. I’ll gladly take the Barbarian here.
1.09 – John A. – Brandon Jacobs, RB NYG. I was hoping Barber would fall here….SJax is tempting…but the first round to me is about minimizing risk, so will go with the man beast here, he absolutely destroyed a ridiculously tough run D schedule this year, will probably have an easier go next season, is the clear #1 and young by football standards after only one full season and a half as the #1 back…
1.10 – Jimmy – Steven Jackson, RB, STL. I sure hope S-Jax falls this far come 2009, but I doubt it. Jackson will probably be back to a 5-8 type pick next year and even that will be good value.
2.01 – Jimmy – Marshawn Lynch, RB, BUF. Lynch is an FFX favorite and I think that you may see Lynch fall this far in 2009 August drafts. Lynch will be one of the biggest steals of 2009.
2.02 – John A. – Randy Moss WR, NE. I expect a big season with Brady back next year… all the backs left at this point are going to make less of an impact.
2.03 – Craphonso Reggie Wayne, WR, IND. I expect a big bounce-back year for the Indy offense.
2.04 – Yarco – Chris Johnson, RB, TEN. Why not? He is playing like a first rounder as a rookie, why is he dropping to 2.04?
2.05 – Smitty – Ronnie Brown, RB, MIA. Brown is playing amazing football given that this is his first year back from ACL surgery. He isn’t fully healthy, it takes over a full year of playing on the repaired knee to get it right… no matter how good he looks, he isn’t 100 percent. Next year he will be even better.
2.06 – Matt – Tony Romo QB, DAL. As a Site, we all kind of joked that if Roy Williams was ever traded to Dallas, Romo would be a top 5 overall player. Well, injury kind of overshadowed the Williams acquisition and possibly delayed some of Romo’s 2008 potential. Expect Romo to finish stronger than expected this year (hint, trade for him now in dynasty leagues) and expect him to be the No. 1 fantasy QB by over 50 points next season.
2.07 – Zach – Tom Brady QB, NE. Brady could be rusty the first couple weeks back in action, but I can see him throwing for 40+ TDs in 2009. Keep in mind that QBs can bounce-back a lot quicker from ACL injuries than other players.
2.08 – Ballgame – Maurice Jones-Drew RB, JAC. At some point this guy has to get all the carries, and while Freddy says he will be back in 2009, I think next year is the year MJD goes crazy. I know we have said this before, but 2009 is the real deal! On a side note, I think Marshawn Lynch (No. 11 overall) is the steal of this draft so far.
2.09 – X – Larry Fitzgerald WR, ARZ. He is only 25, yet he is already headed for his third 100+ catch season in 5 years – this guy is unstoppable. He’s my pick for the #1 WR in all of fantasy football heading into 2009.
2.10 – Tavaner – Matt Forte RB CHI. A true #1 RB who gets 20 carries a game along with a handful of receptions. He should improve.
3.01 – Tavaner – Drew Brees QB, NO. I usually go WR/WR at a turn like this, but I can’t pass up 3800/30+ and WRs can be found later.
3.02 – X – Andre Johnson, WR, HOU. No value with the RBs right now, so I turn back to the wide receivers and grab another beast. Johnson gets his numbers regardless of his surrounding cast; and with the emergence of Slaton in the running game, I think he gets even better in ‘09.
3.03 – Ballgame – Peyton Manning QB, IND. This probably is a bit early, given how mediocre Manning has been this year, but Manning should rebound and will be well worth this mid third-round selection. It isn’t reaching when you’re grabbing a player that can be the number one overall player in fantasy football.
3.04 – Zach – Calvin Johnson WR, DET. Matt – It’s scary to think that CJ is going to get better. The Lions will surely address the quarterback position this off-season, so I’m expecting a top 5WR season out of Johnson in 2009.
3.05 – Matt – Brandon Marshall WR, DEN. He comes with a lot of baggage, but Marshall is capable of being the No. 1 fantasy receiver during any given year.
3.06 – Smitty – Reggie Bush RB, NO. This is ridiculously good value right here. In a PPR format, which this is not, Bush should be top 10 overall, but even in a non-PPR format, Bush would make a fine RB2. Given that this draft is for a league that would start 2RBs and 3WRs, I’d normally go RB, RB and then WR, but I can’t pass up this kind of draft value (and trade value). I should still land good receivers.
3.07 – Yarco – Anquan Boldin WR, AZ. Everyone knows that I am a huge Cards fan, but this is a steal. Boldin is a fantasy WR1 and is the heart and soul of that Cardinals offense. Steal.
3.08 – Craphonso – Greg Jennings WR, GB. I’ll continue the WR run. Jennings has proved himself this year that he is legit with Rodgers at the helm of the GB offense. I was hoping Manning or Brees would fall to me here, but to no avail.
3.09 – John A. Terrell Owens WR, DAL. I had to check several times to make sure he wasn’t taken..ecstatic to have him drop to me here… few WRs are capable of putting up 200 yard/3TD-type games…this one is. Another guy who should be back to normal with the full time return of his QB next year… No brainer to pair him with Randy… and as the 8th WR taken??? Sweet.
3.10 – Jimmy – Marques Colston WR, NO. Injuries will lower his value in 2009. This is great news because he is a top 5 fantasy WR in 2009 and beyond.
4.01 – Jimmy – Aaron Rodgers QB, GB. Rodgers in the fourth seems like great value. I will probably wait on a QB in ‘09, but this seems about right as far as waiting. The value will be in the 4th- and 5th-rounds for 2009 QBs.
4.02 – John A. – Steve Smith WR, CAR. This is where it gets tough to stick to best player available, but all the QBs I would reach for are gone, and i think the backs at this point have leveled out…I consider Smith a top 25 talent easily…and with a league that starts three wides, to have Smith as my #3 gives me a clear match-up advantage, I think…
4.03 – Craphonso – Roddy White WR, ATL. I am thrilled to take White here. Like John, I am very happy with my starting 3 WRs. White will get better and better the more time he gets to work with Ryan.
4.04 – Yarco – Willie Parker RB, PIT. I know Mendy is going to be back and I realize Mewelde Moore is playing great, but I still see FWP being a RB2 next season for the Steelers. If this draft extended past round five, you would probably seem reach for both Mendy and Mewelde, but I’d be very comfortable at my RB2 because that PIT rushing attack will produce no matter who is back there. It’s a bargain RB2 this late in the game if you ask me, but you have to handcuff the back-ups in 2009. You have to!
4.05 – Smitty – Braylon Edwards WR, CLE. This is value right here. I realize the guy drops everything thrown his way, and that offense has been a mess all year long, but I think Edwards is a top 5WR talent trapped in a bad situation. That situation will improve in 2009, as Quinn will be back and I think Edwards will be WELL WORTH a 4.05 pick. Given I don’t have a receiver yet, I love this value right here and waiting worked out real well. I have Turner, Brown and Bush, yet I still have a legit WR1.
4.06 – Matt – Larry Johnson RB, KC. This is kind of risky, but LJ has very low mileage given his age. He is showing signs of life again (Weeks 12 and 13) and that KC offense will be much improved in 2009. This will be great value in hindsight.
4.07 – Zach – DeAngelo Williams RB, CAR. How can this guy be overlooked. J-Stew or no J-Stew, Williams looks like a top 10RB. I roll the dice here in the late fourth, but I do try handcuffing the Carolina rushers later. There would be a lot of handcuffing going on if this draft extended and the Carolina running backs are probably the most important pair to handcuff this year.
4.08 – Ballgame – TJ Houshmandzadeh WR, CIN. The receivers went fast, so I’m not extremely pleased with this pick, but I like Housh and his future in this league. Chad could be traded this off-season and that is what I’m counting on here. Housh is a good enough WR1 given I already have Peyton, Gore and MJD.
4.09 – X – Steve Slaton RB, HOU. Slaton has amazing value late in the 4th as my RB2 to pair with Portis. And I don’t worry about having two of my first four picks coming from the same team – there’s enough offense to go around in Houston for these two to be highly productive fantasy players.
4.10 – Tavaner- Lendale White RB, TEN. I’ll take this burger-loving battering ram. I can’t resist the double digit rushing TDs he’ll produce along with the other RBs in this stable. A value too good to pass up, even when starting 3 WRs.
5.01 – Tavaner – Lance Moore, WR NO. I’ll pull together the WRs during the season. Brees’s favorite target is a good place to start.
5.02 – X – Ryan Grant RB, GB. I had no intention of going RB/RB with these last two picks, but there is no way I pass up Grant here at 5.02. In spite of the injuries and missed time, he is putting up good numbers of late. Love the value with this pick – the 3rd wide receiver and QB can come later.
5.03 – Ballgame – Chad Ocho Cinco WR, CIN. It sure is tough counting on Chad given how bad he is playing and how bad that Bengals offense has been playing, but Chad could be elsewhere in 2008 and there is no question about him still having stud-like value.
5.04 – Zach – Darren McFadden RB, OAK. Of all the players left, McFadden is the only player that still has 2nd-round upside. Oakland will improve and so will McFadden. I don’t expect McFadden to drop this far once we near August, but I sure hope he does.
5.05 – Matt – Eddie Royal WR, DEN. It would be tough drafting Marshall and Royal in a real league, but I honestly can’t get myself to pass him up. Royal looks like the real deal – This says a lot about Jay Cutler in 2009. What a stud Cutler is going to be. Normally I wouldn’t broadcast how much I like Cutler, who is still available, but this is my last pick in this Mock and I don’t think Cutler would have lasted to my next pick anyway.
5.06 – Smitty – Santonio Holmes, WR PIT. I think Holmes is going to go nuts in 2009. Ward will be a year older and the rapport between Roethy and Holmes will grow stronger. Holmes will likely lead the league in yards per catch and I expect 10+ touchdowns in 2009 with well over 1,000 yards.
5.07 – Yarco – Jay Cutler QB, DEN. Yep, Cutler has fallen far enough. With Marshall and Royal catching passes in Denver, Culter is a top 3-5QB in 2009. Jay Cutler, FWP, Anquan Boldin and Chris Johnson! I’ll take that core and focus on WR2 and WR3 in the coming rounds, it’s worth that kind of depth!
5.08 – Craphonso – Jason Witten TE, DAL. Witten is essentially another top WR. The DAL offense, with Williams infused during the off-season, will be scary. Cutler would have been hard to pass up here, and although I have my 3WRs, Dwayne Bowe is hard to pass up.
5.09 – John A. Thomas Jones RB, NYJ. I would have taken Cutler here, as he was the last of my early round QBs I would reach for…my alternate plan was to go for a rookie with great upside like Ohio State’s Chris Wells…but when a guy is a glaring hole on an otherwise blacked out board, you take him, and Jones is a top 25 player with a solid O-line looking forward…i don’t expect 2008-type numbers next year, but as an RB2? Sweet. I am happy with this draft, in my mind, I have grabbed 5 guys off my top 25, leaving me the ability to hopefully grab a top 3 TE in round 6, like Gates, or Gonzalez, and then go QB/QB and play match-ups all year.
5.10 – Jimmy – Lee Evans WR, BUF. Evans is a great WR2. Buffalo will improve each year and I’m pleased with Rodgers, Jackson, Lynch, Colston and Evans as my top 5.
The first thing I have to say is it’s amazing that Tim Hightower didn’t get drafted in the top 50 picks here. That’s kinda crazy. I guess his lack of yardage is scaring some off, but I think Hightower will go inside the top 50 in most mocks as we near August.
I thought it was quite interesting to see Lance Moore go at 5.01. I like Moore, and Tavaner could be proved right in 2009, but my guess is that he will fall a lot further in most drafts. I like the boldness of that pick, though. Mock drafts are meant for such statements and I’m glad to see some contributors/staffers making such statements in this mock.
What about Eddie Royal being the 17th drafted WR? Too early? Will this be a steal? The kid looks like the real deal to me and it will be players like Royal that will be all over the map in early mock drafts heading all the way into August.
Darren McFadden at 5.04 was a steal. In hindsight, I think that pick right there could end up being one of the top three steals of this early fantasy football 2009 mock draft. As Zach said in his commentary, the rookie is only going to get better and that offense will improve. McFadden has second-round upside in 2009 if healthy and getting the touches.
Thomas Jones at 5.09 is a hard selection to analyze, as Jones is one of the best fantasy backs in football right now. Will it continue? Will Jones lose carries to Washington in 2009? Or, will the team invest in a stud rookie runner this April? These are all tough questions to answer at this point in the 2008 NFL season.
The biggest “boom” or “bust” picks might be all in a row in that fourth-round. Willie Parker, Braylon Edwards and Larry Johnson all have second-round upside next season, but they all come with HUGE risk. I think Edwards is the safest selection, as Brady Quinn will be back and healthy and both L.J. and FWP have more question marks surrounding their starting jobs.
Probably the toughest pick to analyze in this entire draft is the pick of DeAngelo Williams at 4.07. I don’t even know how to begin tackling this analysis. Is it a steal? Is it a reach? I seriously don’t even know where to begin breaking this down. DeAngelo looks phenomenal right now, but Jonathan Stewart is a beast-in-the-making. The only early advice I have when it comes to drafting Williams is to handcuff him to Stewart at any cost. If you have to spend a 6th- or 7th-round pick, you have to do it! Having both backs seems very secure and that duo might prove to be one of the best RB2 strategies heading into 2008. I’m sure we will talk about this exact strategy heading into August.
There were plenty of other solid selections in this mock, like Tony Romo at 2.06, Ronnie Brown at 2.05, Steven Jackson at 1.10 and even Peyton Manning at 3.03. I think Peyton could be the key to many championships next year because he is going to have insane draft value given his possible upside. I could go on and on breaking this all down, but those are my initial reactions. Nice early mock draft everyone! Please swing by our forum thread on this draft and leave comments below!
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