Almost every fantasy owner has heard of the Third-Year Breakout Wide Receiver Theory. If you haven’t, the theory basically suggests that a wide receiver’s third NFL season is often his breakout year. Whatever the reason, whether it be the need for experience, opportunity or time to battle through injury, this theory often holds true, or at least it seems that every single season a few third-year receivers emerge onto the fantasy scene.
In 2007, it was Braylon Edwards who came out of nowhere to pull in 80 balls for 1,289 yards and 16 scores. For the most part, last season wasn’t the best year to test this theory, as three of the top five third-year prospects were Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, and Marques Colston. All three had already reached that "elite" level in just their second NFL seasons, so it was obvious that these guys were top ten talents heading into their third campaigns. Lance Moore was one "out of nowhere" third-year breakout, and as you can see viewing last year’s version of this article, we had Moore slotted No. 5 heading into that 2008 fantasy football season. Before we get into the 2009 Third-Year Breakout Fantasy Wide Receivers, here is how last year’s top five prospects finished.
2008 Stats |
GP |
Rec |
Yrds |
TDs |
1. Greg Jennings – ‘09 FFX Rank: 3rd |
16 |
80 |
1292 |
9 |
2. Brandon Marshall – ‘09 FFX Rank: 4th |
15 |
104 |
1265 |
6 |
3. Lance Moore – ‘09 FFX Rank: 5th |
16 |
79 |
928 |
10 |
4. Santonio Holmes – ‘09 FFX Rank: 2nd |
15 |
55 |
821 |
5 |
5. Marques Colston – ‘09 FFX Rank: 1st |
11 |
47 |
760 |
5 |
Last year we had Santonio Holmes pegged as a third-year monster, but the soon-to-be stud only pulled in 55 receptions for 821 yards and 5TDs. Sometimes it takes another season for some receivers to get it going, and I firmly believe that this is the case with Holmes. Holmes averaged 18.1 yards-per-catch back in 2007, but during this past NFL season, his average dropped way down to 14.9. Expect this year to be the year Holmes pulls in over 1,200 yards and 10+ scores!
And now it’s time to talk about the 2009 breakout candidates at the WR position.
Again, last year’s group of third-year breakout wide receivers was kind of a unique group, as three of them exploded prematurely in just their sophomore outings (Colston, Marshall and Jennings)… Unfortunately, the same thing is true for this upcoming 2009 fantasy football season. Fantasy football’s top two third-year prospects are Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Both have already dropped some serious fantasy stats and both will go from strong to even stronger in their third seasons. While the best of the rest won’t knock your socks off, a Lance Moore always seems to emerge… Next season’s Lance Moore is probably on one of the two lists below! Let’s take a look at just the top five prospects first:
2008 Stats |
GP |
Rec |
Yrds |
TDs |
2009 Projections |
1. Calvin Johnson (DET) |
16 |
78 |
1331 |
12 |
|
2. Dwayne Bowe (KC) |
16 |
86 |
1022 |
7 |
|
3. Steve Breaston (AZ) |
16 |
79 |
1042 |
3 |
|
4. Ted Ginn Jr. (MIA) |
|
56 |
790 |
2 |
|
5. Anthony Gonzalez (IND) |
16 |
57 |
664 |
4 |
I won’t waste anyone’s time talking about Calvin Johnson, who is already arguably a top three-to-five fantasy wide receiver for 2009 and beyond. On the other hand, Dwayne Bowe might be a bit better than most think.
Bowe is no sleeper entering ‘09. When you catch 86 passes for 1,022 yards and 7TDs, you’re on everyone’s fantasy radar… but, I honestly think that Bowe is capable of 1,200 and 10+ touchdowns in 2009. Don’t reach too far for Bowe, but don’t be scared away from using your early picks on runners if your league is letting Bowe fall too far come August. Bowe will make a fine WR2 during this upcoming fantasy year.
Steve Breaston had a great sophomore season, pulling in an impressive 79 balls for 1,042 and 3TDs. I don’t think he will pull in more yards in 2009, not with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin catching passes in AZ, but I can see Breaston grabbing more like 6-7TDs this upcoming year.
Ted Ginn Jr. actually scored four touchdowns in 2008, as he ran in two. Ginn will either flop or explode in 2009. I’m not sold, but at the same time, I’d love to draft Ginn, if the price is right, and stash him away just in case.
Anthony Gonzalez could quite possibly be a top 12-15 fantasy wide receiver in ‘09. Marvin Harrison will likely be elsewhere, which means Gonzo is going to see a ton more targets this upcoming year. Last season, Gonzo would have pulled in roughly 91 receptions for 1,059 yards and 6TDs if he had received Anquan Boldin type targets (126).
The the Third-Year Breakout Wide Receiver Theory might have to be redefined as the Second-Year Breakout Wide Receiver Theory. Think I’m kidding? I’m not. Aside from Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe and maybe Anthony Gonzalez, second-year receivers Donnie Avery, DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal all have more upside than any third-year prospect mentioned above.
Rank these 3—-Donnie Avery, Djax, Royal.
Royal, Avery then Djax.
Avery could be extremely good, though, so it’s tough ranking him second given he could be a true No. 1 in STL soon, but Royal just dominates and I love his style of play. Marshall, despite being a top 3 talent ability wise, is capable of throwing it all away at any moment. Royal might be an excellent WR2 soon enough.
A friend in Miami said Ginn is essentially done. His route running isn’t improving and that’s causing serious problems, like running a bad route that resulted in an interception, most recently the Wild Card game.
Any thoughts on that?
Ginn’s just getting his shot. I think he will get the opportunity this year. If he doesn’t produce, he could fade for sure, but he will get his shot. He had a couple promising games last season. I won’t write him off just yet. I won’t count on him, but I won’t write him off.
Thanks for the reply!
No prob. Have any other WRs you do not like on the above list, or guys you do like?
What do you think of Giants’ WR Steve Smith? If Giants doesnt drafted WRs or acquired WRs from FA, do you think he has a shot to be #1 WR?
WR1? No, but he could turn out to be a decent WR2 in New York and possibly a fantasy WR3 at some point. I don’t see him ever being a fantasy WR2… being a WR3 in fantasy football will be tough enough IMO. I could be wrong, though.