Answer: Ronnie Brown

I realize many are going to fight me on this, but I think Ronnie Brown can rebound and return to that elite form we all saw back in 2007 (before he suffered a torn ACL just before mid-season). It’s strange how quickly people forget how good Brown was in those seven games in 2007 (141.5 total yards per game)… he was arguably the best fantasy running back in that span of games and his 2008 campaign was EXTREMELY impressive given the fact that he entered the season nowhere near 100%. It takes a runner at least a full season of playing on a reconstructed knee before they can regain their pre-injury form. Considering that Brown showed flashes of brilliance at times in 2008, and given the fact that the Dolphins got Brown so involved in that dynamic Wildcat Offense right out of the gate, I’m quite pumped about Brown’s upcoming 2009 fantasy season. The best part? Brown is falling into the third-round in some early 2009 fantasy football mock drafts. Brown in the third-round is the definition of low-risk/high-reward. Take full advantage of that in ‘09!

Answer: Pierre Thomas

Pierre Thomas quietly scored 12 td’s last year in limited appearances putting up 909 total yards while catching 31/41 passes thrown his way. From the Saints games I saw he is looked to early and often on the other teams side of the 50 yard line. Once he got 15 plus touches a game, from weeks 11-16, he had 9 td’s (3 receiving) with 475 yds rushing and 202 yds receiving. Pencil him in as an RB2 and sit back and enjoy the ride, especially in ppr leagues.

Answer: Kevin Smith

We still have some candidates yet to make their case for this spot; rookies, free-agents and traded players will all come into play as the offseason moves along. As of right now, I think Kevin Smith is a strong candidate to push into that top 15. His 1200+ yards, 8TDs and 39 receptions are amazing totals for a guy who only started 12 games and played for an 0-16 team. Looking ahead to 2009, I think Smith is going to play a big role for the Lions with a new coaching staff and a potential rookie QB leading the way. Over a full 16 game schedule, I don’t think it is out of the question for him to put up 1600 total yards, score a dozen TDs, and catch around 50 passes.

Answer: Santonio Holmes

After pulling in 52 passes for 942 and 8TDs as a sophomore, Santonio Holmes was set to breakout in 2008. Well, he didn’t. His so called “third-year breakout season” was extremely disappointing, as the Pittsburgh receiver caught just 55 passes for 821 yards and 5TDs. His 2008 campaign especially disappointed me, as I had Holmes pegged as a top 10 fantasy WR heading into the season. I firmly believe I was just a year early on this kid, as some receivers take a bit longer to develop than others. Even after his monster Super Bowl XLIII performance (9-131/1), it’s obvious that many still doubt this youngster (as he still fell to No. 59 overall in our ongoing 2009 Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft). Well, let others continue to doubt! He will likely be an outstanding WR2 this upcoming year, but you do not have to draft him as a WR2… He is falling well into the late 5-7 range. Holmes is very capable of cranking out 1,200+ yards and 10-12 scores in 2009.

Answer: Derrick Ward & Matt Cassel

Derrick Ward. Seldom are 1,000-yard rushers considered sleepers, but freed from the shadow of Brandon Jacobs, Ward will offer some savvy owner an RB 2 for a 6th round (or lower) price. Location may affect his initial upside but he’s a 3 down back. His 41 receptions on 55 targets gives him added value in ppr leagues. He reminds me of Chester Taylor when Taylor first joined the Vikings.

Matt Cassel. His franchise number is $14.65 million for the year – he’ll make the same as Brady, but some lucky team is going to get one helluva starting NFL QB. His decision making over the last half of the year was impressive and while detractors will point to the talent around him it was his talent that emerged under intense pressure from the fans, the team and opposing defenses. We even discovered he could pull it down and get some yards on the ground when he had to. After a year where he threw for 3693 yds and 21 td’s where he lands will determine if he surpasses those numbers this year or next.

Answer: Darren McFadden

A perfect buy-low candidate for 2009 is Darren McFadden. I look at the fact that McFadden had a lingering turf toe injury for most of the season (among other injuries), endured a coaching change and shared time with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. In spite of all that, he still finished with over 750 total yards, 4 TDs and 29 receptions. The biggest obstacle to him breaking out is how the Raider coaches deal with having three quality RBs, but I’m thinking Al Davis wants to showcase this kid and it will turn into a big season for McFadden – albeit a year late. He came within inches of being my breakout STUD candidate for 2009.

Answer: Joseph Addai

Joseph Addai is currently getting no off-season love in the world of fantasy football. As I said above, we’re drafting right now in a 2009 Expert Fantasy Football Mock Draft, and we landed Addai with the No. 19 overall pick. After an awful 2008 campaign, does Addai deserve to be a top eight overall pick? No, he clearly has a bit of risk attached to his name entering this upcoming fantasy football season, but that risk is going to make Addai a bargain come August. Don’t draft Addai as your RB1 — You don’t have to! Assuming Addai doesn’t somehow raise his fantasy value in a glimpse of monster preseason play, Addai’s ADP should remain down in the second-round come this August. The Colts had a rough start to the 2008 NFL season, and injuries were a big part of all that — Expect Addai and the Colts to start things off smoothly in 2009 and start preparing for Addai to have over 1,400 total yards and 10+ scores. Take advantage of Addai’s falling stock, especially if you’re a dynasty league owner. We just pulled a trigger on a trade that sent Michael Turner and Dustin Keller to another fantasy site in exchange for Joseph Addai and Braylon Edwards. I don’t expect many to like that swap given how poorly both Addai and Edwards played in 2008, but I firmly believe that both Addai and Edwards are this upcoming year’s top "Trade For Now" candidates.

Answer: Brandon Marshall

There aren’t many risky selections in rounds 1-3, but Brandon Marshall fits the bill when I think of risky. He dodged a major suspension last year, if not the TV, but he’s one bad choice away from a four game suspension, or worse. Given the choice I’d snap him up in a second even if I knew a suspension was looming – oh wait, I did that last year.

Answer: Clinton Portis

I’m going with Clinton Portis here, a guy who many consider risky heading into 2009. This is nothing new, however, as we saw this same hesitancy in the 2008 season – just your boring, run-of-the-mill running back that puts up top 5 numbers. He’s done it for a couple of years running now too, but is still out of a lot of people’s top 15. Some say he’s injury prone in spite of not missing a game in two seasons, others say he is too old in spite of being just 27. I say thank you very much and grab him in the second round as another RB1 that came at an RB2 price.

Answer: Steve Slaton

Ok Steve Slaton owners, let me explain before you exit this page and blast me with PMs. In early 2009 fantasy football mock drafts, Steve Slaton is getting selected extremely high. Too high! I’ve seen him go as high as No. 7 overall and he generally doesn’t fall much past No. 13 overall. Is he really worth a top 8-13 overall pick? Fifteenth? Maybe. Is he first-round material? I say no. Ok, look, I’m not saying that I don’t like Slaton, or that it’s impossible for him to reproduce his 2008 stats, but fantasy owners are expecting way too much out of the little guy. If you’re drafting Slaton at the bottom of the first-round, or even at the top of the second, that means that you’re passing on backs like DeAngelo Williams, Frank Gore, LaDainian Tomlinson, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Marion Barber. Slaton is in my 12-14 RB range heading into 2009, but with a WR or two mixed in there, Slaton falls outside of my top 15 overall. Could I be missing the boat on this one? Absolutely. That’s why we play this game called fantasy football, but Slaton is a 5′10 runner that weighs 190 pounds. He is certainly capable of another 1,400+ total yards and 9-10 scores on 14-15 starts, but that’s the thing… I just don’t see the little guy holding up on another 260+ carry season. Even if he is able to carry the rock 260+ times in 2009, I think that is bad news for Slaton’s future value. When I think of Slaton, I think of runners like Cadillac Williams and Reggie Bush. Bush will probably succeed at the NFL level, and he could still be very productive fantasy-wise, but that’s because his team is going to use him in a unique fashion. Slaton’s game is between the tackles and I just don’t see him having long-term success in that role — He is too small to last a long time in this league, at least between the tackles. If Houston changes how they use him, that would change a lot in my book. I say trade Slaton in dynasty formats while you can still land a Gore or Lynch type. That’s insane trade value, being able to give a little more and land Gore — I say use it to your advantage. I even advise fantasy owners to trade Slaton in for a Ronnie Brown and some. Get more, though, because you can. Ok, back to redraft, as I switched gears there for a second… my advice to all you redraft leaguers out there is to just wait on Slaton. If he falls to the 15-20 range, great… if he doesn’t fall to the middle of the second-round in 2009, so be it… that will only force a runner to fall that shouldn’t, like a Lynch or a Barber. Slaton owners, you can take off the ear muffs now!

Answer: Carson Palmer & Chad Ocho Cinco

I have two nominees. The first is Carson Palmer. He should have had the surgery. Just like it took some time when he came back from his knee injury I believe he’ll question when, not if, his elbow will begin to hurt again. I believe that will get in his head, change his throwing motion and affect his velocity. I hope I’m wrong, he deserves better. Chad Ocho Cinco – despite stating that he learned his lesson and that the team is bigger than he is, his words ring hollow. He may make it into October before he blows up again but he’ll take that team and the coach (how does he still have a job?) down with him. A talented distraction that would shine on a new team.

Answer: Ronnie Brown

Ronnie Brown will be drafted before the 3rd round in most fantasy leagues, but I think his worth is closer to a 5th at his level of production, so I am simply staying away. The season-ending knee injury he suffered in 2007 means many will think he’s ready to round back into pre-injury form heading into 2009, but I don’t see anything to suggest that. Outside of that Cam Cameron-induced seven game stretch in 2007, Ronnie has put up borderline RB3 numbers and disappears for stretches at a time – in 11 of 16 games in 2008 he was held under 60 yards rushing. Let’s also not forget he is part of a tandem and Ricky Williams will get his carries too. At the price Brown is going for, I’d much rather grab another top WR or get myself a stud QB.

Answer: Knowshon Moreno

If you haven’t already, check out our 2009 College Player Profiles! There is some great info in those profiles, including career stats, fantasy write-ups, links to college game footage and more. As for the question above, the runner I like most for 2009 and beyond is Knowshon Moreno. I don’t like the fact that he weighs just 207 pounds, but I think gaining 10 pounds won’t be an issue for the soon-to-be stud. If drafted to start, and if he gains those 10 quality pounds like DeAngelo Williams did in the pros, Moreno could produce top 10-12 numbers as quickly as 2009. All that said, I also like Chris Wells a lot. It’s so close right now between the two, combine workouts and landing spots could turn my personal set of 2009 rookie running back rankings upside down.

Answer: Knowshon Moreno

The RB’s look to be dropping down the draft this year due to a lack of need for running backs. Denver is mentioned, as is San Diego, followed by Philly and Arizona as possible landing sites for the top RBs. I’ll go with Knowshon Moreno as the rookie RB most likely to shine wherever he lands. He has shown that he can catch the ball out of the backfield, pass block and run with power. He is going to have a lot of fantasy owners making crazy offers for the #1 after the combine.

Answer:

To pick the best RB out of this class without knowing the team they will land with is tough – where these guys end up can be as important as their talent. As of right now, I see four guys in the mix for that top spot, and for the record I don’t see one who is totally head and shoulders above the rest (yet). Those four are Shonn Greene, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, and my pick for the top RB, Chris Wells. The 6’1”, 237 lb. Wells is a beast who reminds many of Jamal Lewis, but does come with some durability concerns. Personally, I think that stuff can be overblown – we heard it with Adrian Peterson in 2007. Again, a lot will depend on where he lands, but I think he’s a top 3 dynasty pick no matter which team he lands with because he has the size, speed, talent and Ohio State grooming to produce at a high level.

Answer: Bust

I know a lot of you will be disappointed in that answer, but Pierre Thomas is just closer to bust than Top 10 in my eyes. He should have some solid opportunity this coming season, especially with Reggie Bush’s newly emerging knee issues, but I have to see a whole lot more out of Thomas before I start considering him a top 10 talent in 2009 and beyond.

Answer: Top 10 (if forced to say)

Much closer to top ten numbers than a bust, he was a beast when he finally got regular touches. In a ppr this guy is gold, even with Reggie Bush on the field.

Answer: Bust (if forced to say)

I don’t want to call him an outright bust because I think he’ll have a good season, but I do think it will be hard for him to live up to the expectations many expect. The Saints are a throw first offense, and last time I checked Reggie Bush was still part of this team – expecting RB2 numbers out of Thomas is unrealistic.

Answer: Top 10

This guy catches everything thrown his way! Ok, I’m only kidding, but who cares? Terrell Owens has been dropping passes for years — All that doesn’t matter. What matters is fantasy and talent! Edwards had a handful of different quarterbacks in 2008, so I’m cutting him a break and I’m going to take advantage of that ADP this year! Braylon Edwards actually isn’t even a risky grab fantasy-wise in 2009, as you can land him in the 4th-round. You won’t find a bigger steal than that! The top 5WR upside is there!

Answer: Top 10

In a contract year, who would have thought?

Answer: Bust

With Braylon Edwards it really depends on where you can land him, but I think in most cases he will be drafted too high based on his name – thus the bust rating. Something you hear a lot with Edwards is “upside”, but the reality is he has only put up WR2 numbers once in 4 seasons, the other three years (including 2008) he’s posted an average season of 49/750/4. Are you willing to bet a 2nd, 3rd or even 4th round pick he will finally live up to those lofty expectations?

Answer: Top 10

I like Ronnie Brown a lot in 2009, as I said above. Given where you can grab him (late second-round, or even early third), he is a steal in 2009! Yea, he slowed down at the end of the season, but Brown is only 27 and he just produced one of the best NFL seasons ever from a runner fresh off an ACL tear. He clearly showed flashes of top 5-10 talent in 2008 — Expect him to be more consistent this upcoming season, as I stated above in bold fashion.

Answer: Top 10

Another one closer to top numbers, as long as he can stay healthy. The RBBC will limit his production but allow him to stay healthier in the long run.

Answer: Bust

As I said earlier about Ronnie Brown, he’s a bust because he is going way too high in spite of the fact he’s splitting time with Ricky Williams. The seven game stretch with Cam Cameron in 2007 was nice, but I don’t really see that happening again, so landing him anywhere before the late 4th or early 5th round will lead to expectations he can’t fulfill.

Answer: Top 10

Matt Cassel is a good quarterback, but will he be in New England in 2009, or with another team? That’s a tough question to answer right now, but I fully expect the Patriots to franchise tag the passer, but that would mean that the team would be paying out roughly $30 million to just two quarterbacks (roughly $15 million to both Tom Brady and Cassel)… and I just don’t see that happening. Top 10! I see Cassel elsewhere in 2009 via trade!

Answer: Top 10

He’ll struggle on a mediocre team but thrive if his playing the "good soldier" lands him on a team with a decent offense. I lean towards the latter – top ten baby (in a year or two)!!!

Answer: Top 10

Matt Cassel has already proved he can play like a QB1, and it is almost assured he will be starting somewhere in 2009. At almost 15 million dollars to lay down the franchise tag, the Patriots cannot afford to hold both he and Brady, so they will trade him away. And while it’s easy to write him off as a fluke, considering the situation he walked into in 2008 and his subsequent performance under those conditions, I think he’s the real deal and will flourish wherever he lands.

Answer: Top 10

Carson Palmer will be a bargain in August drafts. Don’t grab him early, because you will not need to, but expect top 10 numbers!

Answer: Bust

A total bust-like season – he’ll wish he had surgery on his right elbow come about October.

Answer: Carson Palmer is closer to top 10 than bust simply because you have to discount his injury-plagued 2008 season. Not only that, but where he will likely be drafted in ’09 means there is very little risk in taking a chance on him, especially if you pair him with another good QB like Matt Schaub or Ben Roethlisberger. He’s a QB I’ll be targeting in my 2009 drafts.

Answer: Top 10

I project a bounce-back year out of Chad Ocho Cinco, so he is a great buy-low candidate right now in dynasty leagues and a great guy to target in 2009 redraft leagues. Top 10 won’t be easy, but he is closer to that than bust.

Answer: Bust

As his QB goes so goes Chad "It’s All About Me" Ocho Cinco.

Answer: Bust

Chad Ocho Cinco is a player who I think will bounce back after one of the worst seasons of his career, but I don’t know that I ever see him as top 10 material again – there are too many good players at the WR position. A healthy Carson Palmer will help his cause, but here again I think he will go higher than his production warrants in 2009 simply based on his name, and that alone makes me rate him bust material.

Answer: Top 10

Since we’re forced to make a decision, I have to go with Top 10. He might miss the cut-off when all is said and done, but I can’t put bust here.

Answer: Top 10

A consummate professional who goes about the business of football and remembers he’s playing a game for a living.

Answer: Top 10

TJ Houshmandzadeh is an amazing producer, having posted 90+ catches in his last three seasons – this in spite of Carson Palmer being hurt most all of last season. There are still many who don’t consider him one of the “big boys”, but I see no reason to think he can’t be top 10. The best part is he can be had in the 4th or 5th round – that’s great value.