If you haven’t heard, Bills RB Marshawn Lynch was arrested on Wednesday, February 11th in California and was charged with felony possession of a concealed weapon. According to reports, Lynch was found in possession of a loaded gun when police stumbled across a Mercedes Benz that had Lynch and two other men in it. Lynch is currently free on bond, but according to some reports and sources, Lynch may face possible jail time. This is Lynch’s second run-in with the law while in the NFL, which means Lynch is probably looking at an NFL suspension. Lynch was investigated for hit-and-run back in June of 2008 after allegedly hitting a female pedestrian and fleeing the scene of the accident.
It’s easy to overreact if you’re a Marshawn Lynch owner, but the smart play is to relax and realize that selling Lynch off at garbage-type value isn’t going to get you anywhere. While we have dropped Lynch all the way down to #19 on our 2009 Redraft Player Rankings and #18 on our 2009 Dynasty Rankings, this incident doesn’t necessarily strip him of all of his long-term value. We would say that with more confidence if Lynch had not been involved in that hit-and-run case back in June of last year, but a lot still has to happen in order for Lynch to see more than a 2-4 game suspension.
Should Lynch owners test the trade waters? Absolutely, but be strategic with your offers — Don’t sell low! Instead, target other bargain rushers that are so undervalued you can still get away with a one-for-one swap. For example, target Joseph Addai or Ronnie Brown. Even before the recent Lynch arrest, I had Addai and Brown right up there with Lynch in that top 12 range for running backs. Most in the world of fantasy football are not as optimistic about Addai and Brown heading into 2009 and beyond, but this is why I say strike now! To most fantasy owners out there, Lynch has just now (with recent arrest) “dropped” into the same tier as both Addai and Brown. However, I don’t see it that way. I say that all three rushers were already in the same tier before Lynch’s recent arrest… and after the arrest, it is Lynch that has just dropped out of Addai’s and Brown’s tier. I advise that fantasy owners take advantage of this — Trade in your Lynch-stock for the undervalued Brown- or Addai-stock. These are the kinds of trades that will help you get out of this risky situation. You don’t need to trade Lynch along with an early first-round rookie draft pick in order to get back pre-arrest type value.
Either keep Lynch and wait this situation out, or take a safe lateral step into a safer, yet extremely undervalued, runner. Oh, and if you own Lynch, you better make sure Fred Jackson isn’t available in your league. If he is, grab him now! He is one talented back-up!
Any thoughts? If you have Lynch offers out there, or if you’re receiving them, post them here!
Good news on this front for Lynch owners.
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