We recently wrote an article called What To Do With Larry Johnson In 2009 — The article basically advises dynasty owners to trade the runner now while there is still time. For more on why Johnson is such a risky player to hold onto, read the article, then jump back to this one, where we breakdown a trade that we just pulled off involving Johnson.
Now, trading Johnson isn’t easy right now — With a potential upcoming NFL suspension hanging over his head, and with a possible release on the way, or worse (Johnson staying in KC angry and upset), the only way to trade L.J. is to make a lateral move. What does this mean? Well, because no one is going to give you an elite talent in exchange for Johnson, you have to get creative and go after another risky player, but one that you believe in. For example, I firmly believe in both Joseph Addai and Braylon Edwards in 2009. Their poor 2008 campaigns make both perfect buy-low candidates right now, but both are players we firmly believe in heading into 2009. This lateral move can be looked at like buying and selling stock. Addai and Edwards have similar value to L.J. on the market, but we see both players bouncing back in a major way in the fantasy value department in 2009. This was our first plan of attack, but as you will read below, both the Addai and Edwards owners turned down (or did not respond) to our trade proposals — This led us onto a different trade path, but first take a look at our pre-trade roster:
|
League: 2009 FFX Dynasty Expert League Rosters: View Line-Up: 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1Flex, 1DST, 1K Scoring: View (Non-PPR, Standard-Based, but with all passing TDs counting as 6 points and there is bonus scoring of 5 points for every 100 yards rushing and every 85 receiving. Passing bonuses start at 5 points at 300 and 2 points per 100 after) |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Again, as stated above, our first plan of attack was to buy-low on Edwards or Addai, but both owners said no/did not respond. The next plan of attack for us was to trade Johnson and Chad Ocho Cinco together for one better running back… this would force Lance Moore into our starting line-up, but it would upgrade our flex option significantly. Instead, we tried something else. The offer:
Rotoworld received:
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Round 1, Pick 9 Rookie Pick
Fantasy Football Xtreme received:
Gore, Frank SF RB
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR
Washington, Nate TEN WR
Round 3, Pick 11 Rookie Pick
Within 24 hours, Evan from Rotoworld.com accepted the offer you see up above. We’re extremely pleased. Fantasy Football Xtreme is higher on Frank Gore than most Sites… we have him inside our Top 5 Overall heading into all leagues and formats in 2009. New offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye has made it clear that he thinks that Gore has the capability to carry the football 25 times per contest, and the team’s transition back into a run-first offense could turn Gore back into the beast that he was back in 2006. Gore, just 26, had a rough 2008 according to most, but 1,036 yards rushing (4.3), 43 receptions for 373 yards and eight total touchdowns is a solid year if you ask me. Since being a starter back in 2006, Gore has averaged over 1,700 yards per season and has missed just three games in three seasons. Our 2009 Full-Season Projections have Gore cranking out 305 rushes for 1,403 yards (4.6), 52 receptions for 450 yards and 14 total touchdowns. That places him number two overall for running backs in 2009 non-PPR leagues. That’s right, Gore is an upgrade over Turner in 2009 according to our 2009 Full-Season Projections. I know that sounds crazy coming from me, probably the biggest Michael Turner believer and supporter from last season, but Gore is a fantasy force and because he is currently undervalued, it was time to act. It was because of this wash-like swap between Gore and Turner, we were able to make the lateral move we were looking for that involved Larry Johnson, which was getting Brandon Marshall using Larry Johnson, the 1.09 and Lance Moore. This is the controversial part: Trading for Brandon Marshall.
Brandon Marshall is a player that we have been "down" on all off-season. His off-the-field issues make him a huge risk in 2009 and beyond, and he could be looking at an NFL suspension to start the upcoming season. All that said, there is a difference in buying low and selling high… What we just did was buy-low. Marshall is an extreme upgrade over Larry Johnson and Lance Moore as our flex-option, or WR2 (however you want to look at it)… and we can always trade him if need be — Many may doubt Marshall, but many still very much believe in him. That makes him an easy trade option later on down the road (if we so choose). Love him or hate him, Marshall has elite skills and given the cost that we got him for, he might be worth hanging onto. I know that part is going to cause a bit of controversy given how many times I have written "sell-high" next to his name, but again, this is a case of buying low and there is a big difference. So, our new line-up is:
Our New Line-Up
|
In a pure dynasty league, we’re thrilled with our new and improved line-up. This isn’t to say that Rotoworld didn’t make a great trade for their squad, and if L.J. bounces-back, they will be pleased, but we can’t complain with our new line-up to the left. Again, we may look into making yet another lateral move using Brandon Marshall, but that will depend on the kind of value we can get back. To view the commentary going on over at Rotoworld regarding this trade, visit their blog topics here and here. Don’t forget to leave comments below with your thoughts on the move and be sure to visit this thread’s official forum thread! |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
So, which line-up looks better:
Old: Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Marques Colston, Chad Ocho Cinco, Larry Johnson, Owen Daniels
or
New: Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Chad Ocho Cinco, Owen Daniels
Given that Lance Moore and the 1.09 was the only depth lost, this trade was a HUGE upgrade for us. Huge in my eyes!
I’d love to hear other thoughts?
In my eyes it looks like this lineup traded one headache for another; L.J. for Marshall. I think that Turner is marginally better than Gore and even though Singletary wants to pound the rock it looks like they will go for some kind of committee in San Fran according to their GM. That being said, I think Gore will produce well next year and I would want him on any roster.
Since this is not a PPR league I don’t hate the Washington for Moore part of the trade but I really liked Moore’s sneaky production last year in my PPR leagues.
Back to the L.J. for Marshall issue, I think L.J. ends up as a lead back in a committee elsewhere next year–not in KC. I could see him donning a Brown’s uniform perhaps or even maybe leading the mess at Mile High–who knows! It seems that Marshall is going to log less than 16 games again next season with the suspension looming but when he’s in uniform he is one nasty WR.
All in all, the trade seems fair for both sides, it’s just a matter of preference in my eyes. I’m not sure how much value is being given up for the draft picks but that seems to tip the scales in Rotoworld’s favor in my eyes.
Solid take, ThomasMagnumPI.
I don’t know of a Site that was higher on Turner than we were last season — The Same goes for Joseph Addai and Frank Gore this season. This is why we play the game and I love seeing mixed reactions on this one. Keep the comments coming!
nice upgrade, it’s all about your starters, gore and marshall instead of turner and johnson, gore and turner could wash, would much rather have marshall then johnson and he is a lot younger,great for dynasty. johnson has not done much for a couple years now and will be 30 yrs. old this year, he might be about done
Thanks, Rabiddog.
Yea, Romo, AP, Gore, Colston, Marshall, Ocho Cinco and Daniels is a great dynasty squad. Everyone is young but Chad and we even have Chester to back-up AP.
Any ideas for selling off Marshall? Let’s hear some initial thoughts on that one! Again, because I feel we bought Marshall on the cheap, I’m not pushing to dump him just yet, but I’d love to hear some initial ideas as to how we can make yet another lateral step into a safer WR. I wont lie, I have been a huge “sell-high” guy when it comes to Marshall, but really I just feel like we can afford to take the risk given the cost… unless someone offers us something we can’t refuse. I know some may not like this idea, but I’m thinking Braylon Edwards and something for Marshall, but because Edwards’ perceived value is so low, It would all depend on what “something” is.
Just My 2cents
Gore Over Turner Don’t think so
Smitty You Made me a believer in Turner & now you dump him for Gore?
Turner will explode in 09 Smitty theres no going back I beleive Turner was just getting his feet wetin 08. I couldn’t care if they offered President obama Turner STAYS. live and die with a STUD
joey58:
And I’m still a believer, but I still value Gore as a top 5 overall pick, so it’s a no brainer IMO. Not everyone likes Gore, I get that, but here is the current vote on our FFX Poll as of right now:
* Turner/LJ/Moore/1.09 (51%, 20 Votes)
* Gore/Marshall (38%, 15 Votes)
* Even (10%, 4 Votes)
Total Voters: 39
I’m sure things will change, as the poll was just posted, but I’d venture to say more like this move we made than didn’t. The majority could be wrong, it happens all the time! I’m glad you believe in Turner, joey, he is the man and also a top 5 overall pick in any format.
Personally, if you want to deal Marshall then I would think about waiting to trade him until sometime just before a team making a playoff run wants to deal. He should have a few games under his belt even if he does get suspended for a half a year and a team in need of a WR would be salivating to acquire him.
If you prefer to deal him now then I would consider packaging him with Romo for a WR and QB if a there is a team willing to deal a Rivers/Rodgers/Manning/Brady/Brees caliber QB. I simply do not like how the passing game seems to be shaping up in Dallas with Romo’s personal inconsistency, T.O.’s departure and the apparent commitment to the running game that coach Phillips is ranting about. Perhaps you can deal Marshall and Romo for Brees and Edwards. This would be a definite upgrade at QB and another horizontal move at WR. Maybe you could even target Steve Breaston for something else in this trade with the hopes that Q is dealt and Breaston fills in like he did last year when Q’s face was getting the Six-Million Dollar Man treatment.
Solid take on it. I am going to test the market with Marshall for sure, but I have a feeling the current Cutler trade buzz is going to slow things down for me. Either way, I’m pleased, but I won’t stop looking to upgrade.
Hmmm….1) you trade away lance moore for a jailbird whose QB was already having trouble with the new coach at the time of your trade…um, NO! 2) You trade away what clearly is a franchise QB on an up and coming FUNCTIONAL team, for a guy with injury issues on a circus of a team…um, DOUBLE no!!
Look, I like your site very much, but seriously, that was an AWFUL trade. Lance Moore will almost certainly finish in the top 20 this year, while Marshall is a coin-toss (jail/suspension/team turmoil/new QB pains). Turner is a lock for top 5 this year, while Gore will be lucky to even finish in the top 15 (where he ended up this year). Oh, and the cherry on top is Larry “Roto’s free lottery ticket” Johnson. The last time I checked, there was no reliable evidence that Larry was finished physically, so there’s every chance he ends up in a situation where he gets to produce again. I mean, come on. Based on this trade alone, you’ve given them the 2009 championship on a platter.
But keep posting the great content, it’s usually not as whacky as this trade!
Appreciate the feedback, but the trade was somewhat split down the middle in terms of opinions, especially when it went down, so not sure it’s that awful of a trade according to most.
And we didn’t hand that team a championship on a platter. His team is solid, but it isn’t:
Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Chad Ocho Cinco, Owen Daniels
And again, this is a dynasty league, Gore is still quite young and Marshall still has top 5ish dynasty value to many. And LJ’s dynasty value – Forget about it!
Look, it all boils down to Gore. You don’t believe in him, but clearly many do including us. That doesn’t make it awful, you just disagree.
I heard the same types of “awful” when I traded for Turner last year in many leagues. Gore is in a different situation, as he is more of a bounce-back type vs an on-the-rise type, but Gore is very underrated and we’re going to walk the walk on this one… we back up our player projections.
Your opinion is welcome and we love to see differing opinions on the forums/comments, so keep it coming. But awful? Not even close. We have a whole thread on how this is close
Get that Marshall for Edwards trade done and pray to everything that is holy that Edwards ends up in New York this year! Marshall is really hamstrung with Orton at QB (even though I think he’s better than people give him credit for) and Edwards should come relatively cheaply.
Offer Romo, Marshall, Chad Johnson, The Heap for Brees, Edwards and Breaston and see what happens!