Below are six popular fantasy football questions and each question is answered by three fantasy football experts. We have also attached an “Ask Our Staff” question — If you have a question for our staff, use our Ask our Staff feature!
One of my favorite breakout candidates in 2009 has to be Ray Rice. His ADP is rising higher and higher every day, but currently it sits around the 7th- to 9th-round range. Considering he has fantasy RB2 upside, that’s insane value right there. I honestly think that Rice can produce top 12-14RB numbers this upcoming season — If he can throw down that kind of production, there will be no bigger steal in 2009 when all is said and done. Is there a chance Rice won’t start, or that will share carries all season long? Sure, his resume isn’t a big one, and he has only carried the ball over 11 times just twice, but that’s why he is a breakout candidate and not a “lock” to produce. Even if his ADP climbs into the 4th- to 5th-round range as we head toward August, he is still a monster steal given how much he can outperform even a 4th- or 5th-round pick. Dynasty leaguers, trade for the guy now before it’s too late!
Pierre Thomas – Preparation met opportunity last year and Pierre proved more than up to the task. In his final six games, as he got double digit rushing attempts, he ran for 475 yards, with 202 receiving yards on 19 receptions (26 targets), with 9 total td’s (3 receiving). Drew Brees has already called him “the total package”. The last guy he talked up was a 7th rounder…some guy named Colston!
I can’t decide between these two guys, so I’ll mention them both. Pierre Thomas was a guy I was a little skeptical about earlier in the year, but with the draft well behind us and no free agent movement at RB for the Saints, I am now all-aboard the P-Train! Similar to Michael Turner last year, this guy will be coming from the 4-6 round range to be a top 10 player this season, and the Saints need him if they are going to have a more well-rounded attack. The other guy I have really started liking the last few weeks is Ray Rice – he is another coming from a similar draft range who could easily be a top 10-15 player. I am convinced that Willis McGahee is not a player coach John Harbaugh believes in, so unless Rice gets hurt, he is the starter. Bottom line for me is either of these guys are tremendous value late if you want to go WR early in your drafts.
Frank Gore is my choice for early-round breakout candidate. He is extremely underrated right now in all formats, especially in dynasty leagues. The 49ers runner is only 26, yet dynasty league owners are selling him off as if he is entering his final elite season. Take advantage of all the doubt and grab Gore in all dynasty leagues if the price is right. I personally have Gore inside my top five overall in all leagues and formats this upcoming season — I consider him as an equal to runners like Chris Johnson and even Matt Forte. I’d only rank Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Michael Turner ahead of Gore entering 2009. Crazy? I’ve been called worse! Look, new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye has made it clear that he thinks that Gore has the ability to carry the football 25 times per game, and the team’s transition back into a run-first offense could help Gore get back to his monster-like 2006 form. Gore, again just 26, had a rough 2008 according to most, but 1,036 yards rushing (4.3), 43 receptions for 373 yards and eight total touchdowns was actually quietly-solid in my opinion. Since being a starter back in 2006, Gore has averaged over 1,700 yards per season and has missed just three games. If healthy in 2009, expect Gore to crank out roughly 280-300 carries for over 1,300 rushing yards (4.6), 40-50 receptions for roughly 400 receiving yards and 12-14 total touchdowns.
Dwayne Bowe – Since his rookie season, he’s produced 156 receptions, 2017 yards and 12 TDs. Compare that with Calvin’s 126 receptions, 2087 yards and 16 TDs and they are far and away the top two WRs of their class. This year, Bowe is going to explode. The newly installed passing offense along with a QB who can move in the pocket, run effectively and get him the ball are going to skyrocket this guy into the top ten WRs in the game. He’ll be taken close to the end of the first-round next year (after Cassel is signed), as opposed to the end of the 2nd, or beginning of the 3rd depending on whose ADP you look at.
When you talk about breakout value in the first few rounds, it is hard not to pick Frank Gore. I fully realize that the 49ers are not all that good and they will be behind early and often in most games, but on the flip side he is the centerpiece of that offense. And, in case you missed it in our breaking news, their new OC is putting together an offense similar to what ‘Frisco ran in 2006 – a year in which Gore racked up 1,695 rushing yards at a 5.4 yard-per-carry clip. Getting a guy capable of top 3 numbers in the middle of the 2nd round is the very definition of value.
Steve Slaton is by far my biggest early-round bust candidate heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. He looked great last year and the little guy truly is a talented runner, but he doesn’t have the frame to be a full-time guy in this league — And Houston doesn’t appear likely to decrease his workload any time soon. Slaton owners are probably excited to hear that, but the second year running back won’t have a long career if handed that kind of workload! Slaton’s current ADP is right around the the 1.11 – 2.03 range, which is extremely high. Let someone else reach for Slaton and only attack him if he falls to the bottom of the second. I know this isn’t going to be popular advice, as so many want Slaton to succeed as a full-time rusher in this league, but running backs emerge during their rookie campaigns and then vanish from the elite forever (think A-Train).
Here is your triple play of the day! Ronnie Brown and Thomas Jones and Terrell Owens. I’m talking fantasy here, not value to team.
Ronnie Brown had a few good games early in the season but didn’t break 100 yards over the last 7 games of the season (including playoffs), with only one 100 yard game out his last 13. Brown’s ADP is consistently at the end of the 3rd round in 12 team leagues. Good luck with him as your RB2.
Thomas Jones is going to think he’s playing for the Bears with all the stacked fronts he’s going to see. The Jets offensive line is good but without the threat of Favre defenses are going to challenge the QB to beat them and until the Jets win a game because of the QB, I feel Jones will have scant running room. Factor in Leon Washington, Shonn Greene and Ryan’s embracing RBBCs, and Jones will have a hard time being worth that early 4th- to mid-5th-round pick, which is where he is going now. Terrell Owens could not have landed in a more unlikely spot. The AFC East has not been kind to Terrell in the past and the defenses all have a guy that can shadow him. If he starts out hot — and he might — sell-high, because once the cold and wind settle around Ralph Wilson Stadium, he won’t be a receiver you can depend on during the fantasy playoffs.
Bust is a relative term in the first few rounds – most all of these guys will produce in some fashion unless injury strikes. I can’t predict injury, but I do think that Steve Slaton will under perform his draft spot this season. Where many expect Slaton to carry the load of an RB1, I’m not convinced he will fulfill those expectations – one of those 2008 rookie RBs is going to get see a sophomore slump and in my opinion that guy will be Slaton.
Based on early mock drafts and early ADP data, I think one of my favorite strategies to try out this year will be to go WR/WR/WR or WR/WR/QB… then take three or more rookie runners, like Shonn Greene, LeSean McCoy and Donald Brown. Even WR/WR and then one of Knowshon Moreno or Chris Wells will work… the strategy is to load up on two receivers like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston, then plug in a quarterback like Tom Brady… then surround the three studs with a dynamic rookie rotation. You can probably draft a FWP/Mendy combo to go along with those middle-round rookies… one can even land my favorite 2009 breakout candidate in Ray Rice. Even Joseph Addai is falling into the 5th and 6th-round. Addai’s injury issues this off-season, as well as the presence of rookie Donald Brown, is turning the Colts starter into a bargain grab, not a risky grab. Tell me this line-up couldn’t win a league in 2009: Tom Brady, Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Donnie Avery , Brent Celek… I’m sorry, but that’s one crafty line-up!
It’s one thing to have a strategy, it’s another to execute it. At the top of a draft I’m going RB/WR/WR or RB/WR/QB. At the bottom of the draft I’ll go WR/WR and pick-up a guy like Pierre Thomas at my next pick. Mid-round range, WR/RB/BA, probably, as more leagues are using PPR and more teams employ a RBBC the value of WRs is increasing and I can get someone like Marion Barber, Clinton Portis, or LaDainian Tomlinson.
As I alluded to in my breakout candidate answer, I think there are quite a few RBs you could grab late to round out your stable, allowing you to stock up on elite WRs early. We are seeing a lot more leagues go with PPR – but even if you play in non-PPR leagues I think a good strategy to employ this year will be WR/WR/RB/RB or RB/WR/WR/RB. Those later RB picks can be up-and-comers like Pierre Thomas, Ray Rice, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Wells or vets with lower value like Joseph Addai, Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. There are others too, but the point is that there will be plenty of RB talent late (albeit with some risk) that will allow you to go after those elite studs at WR early – you could even sneak an elite QB in the middle and wait on that second RB until the 5th round.
Ronnie Brown is one of the most underrated fantasy running backs entering the upcoming fantasy football season. Brown suffered a torn ACL right in the middle of the 2007 season, so last year was his first season back from injury. He struggled on occasion last year, especially down the stretch, but he did showed flashes of brilliance at times. Typically runners struggle that first year back from ACL surgery, but Brown was a huge part of that new-look Dolphins offensive attack. He didn’t pump out top 5-10 running back numbers, but he did score 10 times on just 214 carries. That’s very good coming off an ACL tear. He was also the focal point of that impressive wildcat offense in 2008 — Given how much that Dolphins coaching staff put on his plate at less than 100 percent, and given how he responded, you might see Brown even more involved in 2009. Many will doubt him in 2009, his second season back from injury, but this is great news for those that believe in the running back. I firmly believe that he can produce top 10RB numbers in ‘09, yet he can be had in the 3.06 – 4.06 range in early 2009 mock drafts. Will his value climb? Probably, especially as news breaks that the runner is looking strong this preseason, but either way, Brown is a candidate to extremely outperform his draft slot (even if it climbs into the high third-round).
Chad Johnson – With a redraft ADP of 59, Chad offers fantastic value for those owners willing to take a (small) risk for a WR1. The above report is nothing new. It’s manufactured, IMO. Everyone knew this last year and it was expected that Chad might start out slowly. What was unexpected was his QB going down, and the back-up being unable to get him the ball. Doubters will point to T.J.H. not being there. It wasn’t T.J.’s underneath routes that opened up Chad. His skills have not diminished. The talent level at QB is back to normal. He’s motivated. What’s not to like?
Tom Brady. I’ve said this plenty throughout this offseason, but fantasy players quickly forget elite players when injury befalls them. Brady has fallen off the “elite” radar because of his knee injury in the first game last season, but I think he will be back with a vengeance in 2009. Early reports from Pats camp (if you believe them) indicate Brady is on a mission – which doesn’t surprise me one bit when you consider the competitor he is. Look, there are no guarantees with ACL injuries, but I would be completely shocked if he wasn’t back in form by game 2 this year. So, here’s a guy you could get in the fourth or even fifth round who could easily be the #1 fantasy QB when all is said and done. That’s exactly what happened in 2007 when many a fantasy team went to their league’s championship game on Tom’s back.
I have three… Shonn Greene, Ray Rice and Ronnie Brown. Because I’ve already talked about two of those guys up above, I will also mention that I will also reach for Ben Roethlisberger and Donnie Avery in 2009 drafts. Roethy has a plethora of weapons and is a proven top 5-7 fantasy QB of the past (2007)… everyone seems to forget his 2007 campaign. As for Avery, the receiver is going to turn heads this season and is well worth the reach past his ADP (7th-rounder) given his upside. Dynasty leaguers should trade for Avery while he is still dirt cheap!
Felix Jones – Hope you haven’t been sleeping on Felix, or concerned about the 3 headed running attack in Dallas. He’s going to get his touches (12-15) and easily produce flex worthy numbers, a great RB3 if you have that luxury. His current ADP is in the mid-7th round, he’ll easily out-produce that draft spot and most RBs in his position. He’ll have to stay healthy.
Guys who play in fantasy leagues with me, and even those who don’t, know I am a Reggie Bush “reacher”. In spite of the incessant knocks on him, he produces when he plays and I won’t hesitate to take him even as high as the second round in PPR leagues.. Bush is someone who can score fantasy points with the best of them and he is top 5 material when healthy. Lots of different issues are scaring people away from Bush, the latest being the emergence of Pierre Thomas. Doesn’t scare me a bit, I think Bush will thrive with another banger there to carry the load – Bush had one of his best seasons playing with Deuce McAllister a few years ago. Make no mistake, Bush will get a lion’s share of the touches in one of the most potent offenses in the NFL – and that translates into fantasy points for his owners.
Must-owns to me in 2009 include some of the same names above, like Ray Rice, Frank Gore and as many rookie runners as you can get your hands on. Each year, rookies find a way to have an impact and I like this year’s rookie class more than most. If you roster Donald Brown, LeSean McCoy and Shonn Greene and you spend middle round picks to land them all, you’re going to have some serious trade bait come mid-season. Another must-have to me in 2009 is Tom Brady. Like X, I really see Brady exploding in 2009, especially given his draft value, which is easily in the third-round. To me, grabbing one of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or Tom Brady is a must if all of them continue to fall into the middle of the third- to fourth-round range. This is one of those seasons where I think there will be a huge separation between those top QBs and the rest. Aaron Rodgers might get himself into that elite group, but that’s about it. Teams with Manning, Brees and Brady will have a much easier time getting over 100 points each and every week. Oh, and like Tavaner, I also really like Dwayne Bowe this season!
Pierre Thomas, Dwayne Bowe and Felix Jones.
My top must-have is Larry Fitzgerald for obvious reasons. Yeah, I know, he’s just about everyone else’s must have too, but that doesn’t stop me from moving on him early or overpaying to get him in trade. Fitzy is a guy that makes me smile when I see him in my lineup. Ray Rice is a guy I am targeting in almost all my seasonal drafts this year – just really like what I am hearing and Cam Cameron tends to turn RBs into superstars in his offensive system. Last one for me is John Carlson. I’m not one to target tight ends early in drafts, so when I finally look to them it is nice to see Carlson sitting on the board. Real good player that is capable of top five numbers without having to spend a high pick on a secondary position.
"Hey guys I am in a pure dynasty league and have Brian Westbrook, Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno at RB. I had the 1.01 and 1.02 in my rookie draft but we drafted almost a month ago. When we drafted I didn’t even think I’d be wanting McCoy more than Wells but now I’m starting to entertain trading Wells for McCoy straight up. I know I should get more because Wells is the clear second best rookie RB to most but this guy wont give me anything more and I’m starting to think McCoy can be just as good as Wells if not better. The owner of McCoy is standing firm and is almost ready to pull his offer completely given the new Westbrook news. What should I do? Assuming I can’t get more from this owner, do I make this swap? This is standard scoring but it is 0.5PPR. All TDs are 6 points but for QBs TDs are 4 points. We start 2RBs and 2WRs, 1TE and 1QB. Thanks."
- William, OH
William, I know Westbrook looks like a huge injury risk right now, but things can change quickly and Westbrook is a tough guy. I have a feeling that Westy will be close to a full-go come Week 1 and you might be able to land McCoy (and more) at that time… If not, so be it. I think Wells will be a beast in this league and I’m not so sure McCoy is going to just all of the sudden step in and produce Westbrook-like numbers. I mean, it’s possible, but Westy is/was one good running back! Fantasy owners everywhere are getting caught up in the McCoy buzz to the point where they are assuming he will be just as good no questions asked… that the production will just transfer over. Again, it could, but it isn’t a lock by any means. Also, Wells will probably be a better 2009 prospect if you ask me. My advice is to sit and wait for Westy’s value to climb back up, and my hunch is that it will as we near Week 1… Once it does, can you sell him to the McCoy owner for a player that has huge future upside? A Shonn Greene for example, or a troubled receiver like Brandon Marshall. You might have to go bargain shopping, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find yourself great deal and buy-low on an undervalued player. Keep Wells and explore your options later!
Hey William, this is a win/win for you. They are in the same tier of rookie RBs, IMO. Chris Wells has struggled with minor injuries each of the past two seasons and for an RB who takes a lot of punishment, it’s a red flag for me. The defenders he’ll face are bigger, faster and hit harder than the one’s he faced in college. There is some question about his ability to receive out of the backfield and in a passing offense that is one area he’ll have to improve on. I could easily see Arizona shifting from a pass-first offense to a more balanced attack in a year or two because of Wells and the HC’s preference. It takes some time for Wells to hit the hole as well, so a defender’s size/speed could leave Wells with more than a few runs for loss. That should adjust itself within the year though, more a heads up not to get disappointed if he struggles at first. He won’t outrun the pursuit, so he is more of a chains mover. Pencil him in for 1000/10. He does have the potential to be a Pro Bowler in the future and could just as easily be a RB2. It’ll depend on his health. For LeSean McCoy, opportunity meets skill set. The general consensus of draft information I read suggested McCoy would need a year or so to mature. Overall I feel he’s better suited for the Eagle offense than Wells is for Arizona’s offense (at the moment). He is, however, the exact opposite of Wells in style. He’s elusive, has cut back ability, and can receive out of the backfield. He’ll be tough to defend in space and his elusiveness will limit arm tackles. I’d probably keep Wells, as the defenses he will face are more passing oriented. It depends on how you want to build your roster. Do you want a thumper and a speed guy; do you prefer two RBs that can balance an off week rushing by catching a few passes? Your choice. Value wise, I’d call this an even trade. If you want to back-up Westy it’s an easy call.
I’ve said all along that although Chris Wells, Knowshown Moreno and Michael Crabtree were the early top 3 by quite a fair margin immediately following the draft, I thought that any of LeSean McCoy, Shonn Green, Donald Brown, James Davis and Percy Harvin could all be pushing into that first tier by the time August rolled around. And that is exactly what is playing out here. Your decision boils down to backing up your investment in Westy by acquiring McCoy, or moving on with your pick of Wells. Either way, it comes down to predicting who will be the better player over the next five years – Westbrook is an afterthought because either way you are without him in a few years. I would personally keep Wells for two reasons. First, I think he is the better player for this season and into the future – he is one of the only RBs in this class who I think can handle full-time RB duties – a dying breed. Second, keeping Wells means you get both him and Westy in your lineup over the next few seasons – trading for McCoy will leave you with only one starter over that span. Bottom line: yes, McCoy for Wells is a pretty even straight-up deal, but in the end I would keep Wells and be happy.
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[...] Seven questions all fantasy owners need answers for as they prepare for fantasy draft season. [Fantasy Football Xtreme] [...]
I would add Lynch to the list.
Quit yammering about Ray Rice you guys! He is going to produce and he will be a steal, that is if you all quit educating the public and his ADP doesn’t climb up to where it should be.
I Like your guys’ draft strategies but I think that it is important to note that if you have one of the top 8 picks in a redraft league you are pretty much obligated to take a RB with your fist pick.
ThomasM, yes, If you land a top 8 pick, you can still go RB/WR/WR/QB, which is another solid look.
You’re right, I should have clarified that more. I’m going RB if I have a top 7-8 pick, but Frank Gore and then WR/WR will still get it done, then load up on rookie RBs for that RB2 rotation. Thanks for bringing that up.
I have to really disagree w/ the S. Slaton being overrated comments because if you look at him he’s what 5′10″ 200 lbs yet if you look at the defenses he ran against they were some of the best in the entire NFL. Next the zone blocking scheme Houston employs plays to Slaton’s strengths, not to mention that HOU throws alot which opens holes and stops defenses from loading the line against him. I think you’ll see the same stats as last year except I think they’ll use the rookie for the goal line shots…I don’t remember his name though.
So let me get this staight…Slaton is listed as 5-10 200lbs and is considered too small but Westbrook at 5-10 203lbs is a top 5 RB consistently? I know he has injury issues and it is probably due to his size, but everyone here would take him if they could. I guess the 3 lbs make a difference.