2009 Expert Mock Drafts: 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 6.0
Things change on a daily basis in the world of pro football, which is why we decided to do another quick expert 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. Keep in mind that things will change quickly in the coming weeks and months, so this mock draft is constructed as if drafting today. Mock drafting is an extremely useful form of draft preperation, so be sure to Join A Mock Draft after reading this article. They are free, there is no registration needed and you can chat live as you draft. It’s easy, fast and all right here on Fantasy Football Xtreme!
So, here is our most recent 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (six rounds with commentary), which is based off of standard scoring (non-PPR) and the line-up requirements of: 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRS, 1TE, 1K, 1DST. Enjoy!
Draft Completed: 6/21/09
There is no question here. AP can score 18+ touchdowns during any given season. If you have the No. 1 pick in any format, don’t hesitate taking Peterson.
If healthy, double-digit scores and 60-70 receptions almost feels like a lock. Hopefully the little guy can stay healthy with a heavier workload, but his smaller-type frame is a unique one… one that we believe can hold up on 240-250 carries.
FFX was one of the only fantasy football informational sites out there that had this guy pegged as a top 5-10 fantasy back heading into 2008 – The exact article title is: Turner To Be A Top 10RB? Expect more of the same this year!
Health is always a concern with S-Jax, but the 25 year-old can be a top 2-3 overall player during any given season. With a much improved offensive line, and with Donnie Avery about to breakout, Jackson is primed for a monster season.
A top 4 ranking can be argued heading into 2009. Forte is the real deal and the addition of Jay Cutler might only make Forte more dangerous!
Many have this guy ranked as low as top 12-15 overall — Use ADPs to your advantage heading into your August drafts, because this rusher is still a top 5-8 fantasy talent, we don’t care what anyone says.
While we’re a bit skeptical about his long-term value given his smaller-type frame, he is without question a top 10 overall pick entering 2009. Again, this is a redraft mock, but it’s worth mentioning that Johnson is a great sell-high player in dynasty formats.
It just feels wrong to rank him this low after a 20TD season, but Jonathan Stewart makes it tough to slot Williams any higher than this. Was 2008 a fluke? Only time will tell, but after that 2008 campaign, D-Will has to be a top 8-12 pick. Just be sure to draft Stewart at almost any cost if you plan to roll with Williams as your first player taken.
While many are doubting LT2 entering 2009, we suggest that fantasy owners take full advantage! Even with the 30 Years-Old RB Theory hanging over his head, LT2 has another top 10RB season left in the tank. Potential steal of the draft!
With Tom Brady back in 2009, we expect another 15+ touchdown season out of Randy. What has changed? Nothing! It’s back to business as usual in New England. As you will read later, Brady is the real bargain this year!
It was tough slotting Fitzgerald below Moss at first glance, but given that Fitz is still inside our top 12 overall, clearly we’re giving him insane respect. Moss is the home run and Fitz appears to be a safe top five lock at his position.
Again, it can be argued that Johnson deserves to be the first receiver taken on draft day, but his injury history has us slotting him in the third spot. He is still in our top 12-14 in all formats. This is the first season we have ever ranked three receivers inside the top 12 overall.
Westbrook’s ADP is falling fast due to his ankle injury (and presence of LeSean McCoy). Use this fantasy worldwide panic to your advantage and just be sure to handcuff Westy to McCoy — Together, the duo could produce top five overall fantasy numbers in ’09. Westy might be the steal of 2009 drafts when all is said and done.
Portis will be 28 when the season begins, so his downfall is certainly on the horizon. He should have one more solid season left, but he has carried the football over 2,000 times during his seven NFL seasons — Shaun Alexander fell off the face of the earth during his 29-age season, but he did crank out elite numbers at the age of 28. Can Portis with 2,000 carries in the rear view?
Injuries are always a concern when it comes to Jacobs, but if the Giants give him the right amount of carries and do not overwork him, he should crank out 900-1,000 yards rushing and double-digit touchdowns. If the Giants overwork him early on, Jacobs will kickoff the season on pace for 1,400 yards and 15TDs, but he won’t reach those totals if he isn’t on the field come Week 8.
The Colts will be much improved this year, especially in terms of the offensive line. Expect Peyton Manning to bounce-back in a major way in 2009, which means Wayne is in for a big season.
While we have our long-term concerns with Slaton, it’s tough to let him fall any further than this. Most will consider us crazy for ranking him this low entering ’09, but we have some sophomore slump concerns given his 200-pound frame. This is a redraft mock, but sell-high in dynasty leagues!
Johnson is an elite receiver now — Our only concern is with that Lions’ offense. Hopefully Matthew Stafford gains control of that offense quickly. The good news is that if the Lions start playing from behind often, Calvin will see a ton of targets.
Colston’s microfracture surgery was a minor one compared to most – Expect him to be a top five wide receiver in 2009 and beyond!
Not everyone agrees with this one here at FFX, but some staffers here (especially Smitty) feel that Brown could be one of the biggest steals in 2009 fantasy football drafts. Brown was as good as Adrian Peterson for the first eight games of the 2007 NFL season, but an ACL injury cut that campaign short. His first season back from injury was last year, and while it usually takes runners who suffer ACL tears a full season of playing on the knee before they bounce-back to form, Brown showed flashes of brilliance at times during that first season back. The team has major faith in Brown, as that Dolphins’ coaching staff made the runner a major part of that exciting Wildcat package last season — Expect a surprisingly solid fantasy season out of Brown in 2009! How solid? Try top 8-10 fantasy running back numbers! Enjoy getting him even later than this, as Brown’s ADP is easily in the third- to fourth-round right now.
Barber might not have a long NFL career, at least as a full-time starter, but he has a good 1-2 years left before his value starts to drop. Since this is a redraft fantasy football mock draft, this is the perfect spot for Barber. If not overworked, Barber should rush for roughly 900-1,000 yards and have a strong shot at scoring double-digit touchdowns. The right amount of carries is the key to Barber’s 2009 health and success. Getting overworked could lead to injury, just like we mentioned up above with Jacobs!
As stated above with Wayne, Manning and that Colts passing attack should rebound in a major way in 2009. That offensive line will be much improved and Manning will look more like a 35-40TD passer this season.
It can be argued that Brees deserves to be the No. 1 quarterback taken on draft day, but it’s awfully close. Consider Manning, Brees and Brady all extremely close in ’09.
With defenses planning to shutdown Turner in 2009, and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, White could have his best season yet.
Again, all three of Manning, Brees and Brady should shine in 2009. Brady might have some injury risk attached to his name, given that this is his first season back from injury, but quarterbacks can bounce-back right away from ACL tears unlike running backs. Brady might jump right back into being a 40TD passer this season. I know, we are extremely high on the top three QBs this year and we’re projecting impossible stats for them, right? Three QBs can’t throw for close to 40TDs each in the same season, right? Well, we say at least two will… Which two? That’s the tough part!
Jennings is a proven stud and has a stud quarterback throwing him the football — And Aaron Rodgers will only get better!
Boldin is consistent and would make a fine third-round pick in 2009 redraft leagues. He also makes a fine fantasy WR1 if you plan on going RB/RB with your first two picks.
Smith seems to be boom or bust each and every season, but he has too much upside to pass on when you get to that 28-34 overall range.
Bowe has top five fantasy wide receiver upside for the future. His 2009 numbers will depend on how well Matt Cassel does in his first season in Kansas City. If he is the real deal, which is something that can be debated, Bowe might breakout in a major way this year and turn out to be quite the steal in hindsight.
Love him or hate him, the talent is there. Edwards is falling into the fourth- to fifth-round in a lot of early drafts, so use the ADPs to your advantage come draft day. Landing Edwards as a fourth- or fifth-round grab is insane!
Thomas is the RB1 over in New Orleans, even if Reggie Bush enters September at 100 percent. The two play different roles for that Saints offense and there are plenty of touches to go around. Thomas could prove to be a very solid fantasy RB2 at season’s end.
It seems that people either love this kid or they completely doubt him. He is a solid RB2 and middle-to-late third-round pick in 2009, but we have our concerns with that Lions’ offense in 2009. If the Lions struggle and fall behind early in games, at least Calvin will get some targets as the Lions try passing their way back into games. Smith could become a victim in the fourth quarters.
While others doubt, we say invest at this cost. Owens is no longer a second-round pick, but if you go RB/RB with your first two picks this season, consider Owens a fine fantasy WR1.
Clearly the drafting of rookie running back Donald Brown hurts Addai’s 2009 fantasy value (and especially his dynasty value), but at some point Addai becomes a potential bargain. If you are able to draft Addai this late or later come August, all you need to do is reach a bit for Brown – Having both runners on your 2009 roster will almost cut your risk in half and you will have yourself a bargain RB2.
Lynch could have his three-game suspension reduced, but for now assume he won’t hit the field until Week 4. Move him up an entire round if his suspension gets bumped down to one game.
Think this is too early for the rookie? Talk to us in December!
Grant still has good upside, but there are just too many other safer players to draft in the first three rounds. This is a decent spot for Grant, though.
If Cutler wasn’t traded this off-season, Moreno would have been slotted almost an entire round higher than this. Look for a very decent 2009 from Moreno — He might be a first-round pick entering 2010 yearly drafts.
McFadden might end up being one of the bigger middle-round surprises at year’s end.
His microfracture surgery concerns us. If this was a PPR mock, we’d have him a lot higher, but until we see him in action without setbacks, this is where we slot him in non-PPR redraft mocks.
Rodgers was a beast last year and with Jennings catching passes in Green Bay, Rodgers should thrive in 2009 much like he did in 2008.
A suspension announcement or a change in uniform could alter Marshall’s value for the good or the bad. For now, he makes a crafty fantasy WR2 and an excellent fantasy WR3. Stay on top of our Fantasy Football Breaking News Wire for more on Marshall, as again, his situation will certainly alter his value.
Rice is one of Smitty’s breakout candidates entering 2009. Some might say that Baltimore will once again be a RBBC in 2009, but the good news is that Rice is falling into the 5-7 rounds, which means that you won’t likely have to reach this high to land him on draft day. If you can actually draft Rice a round or two later than this slot, he will be almost all reward and very little risk.
Romo should have a better season than most expect. He will make a fine 4th or 5th-round pick come August.
Will age finally catch up with Warner? Our guess is that he has one more elite season left, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he didn’t play a full 16 games. For now, Warner makes a solid late 4th-round grab in 2009 redraft leagues.
L.J. will be boom or bust this season. Because of that “bust” factor, it’s tough to grab Johnson any higher than this. Could he outperform this draft slot? Sure, but there are just too many other safer players listed up above to place L.J. any higher than this.
FWP will actually be a decent 45-50 overall pick come draft day, but the key will be to handcuff him to Rashard Mendenhall at almost any cost.
Roy comes with some risk for sure, but he is being valued like a fantasy WR3 right now — Take advantage!
This should be the season Holmes breaks out. He has top 12 fantasy WR upside in 2009 and beyond — He just needs the targets.
Cotchery is extremely underrated right now and might fall a lot further than this come August.
As we’ve mentioned a couple times already, running backs usually cannot play at an elite level at the age of 30 (read more). At least, they usually do not play a full season at the age of 30. A small handful of elite runners have been exceptions to the rule, but we do not see Jones being one of the rare few to crank out 16 games of insanity at 30. Because he might throw together half a season of solid play, Jones commands a top 50-55 overall selection. Just make sure you handcuff him to Greene in 2009, because if history is any indication, T-Jones won’t start even half a season this year.
Stewart could score 8-10 scores even if he only gets 10-12 carries per game. He is that good. Stewart is a must-own for D-Will owners this year, as the second-year rusher has top 10RB upside if ever forced into that Carolina line-up.
Ochocinco is a value-grab this year given his upside. If his ADP rises, he will start becoming more risk than possible reward. But, for now, he looks like a bargain and a fantastic fantasy WR3.
With Brady back in the line-up in ’09, Welker could return to the top 12 for fantasy receivers.
The order of the top three TEs is arguable. Witten is money, though.
We have our concerns with Cutler now that he is in Chicago, so this might be too high.
While it’s tough to count on Bryant, the risk isn’t too bad right around here.
Gates is a huge bounce-back candidate in 2009.
He is quietly worth this spot. What more can one say? Rivers isn’t flashy, but he is a quality QB1.
Ryan is a good quarterback and White will stretch the field. Gonzo could end up being the No. 1 fantasy TE at Week 16′s end.
Is this too early for Avery? Maybe, but we have a feeling this guy is going to absolutely turn heads in 2009. Use his ADP to your advantage as we near August, because we have a feeling he will fall a lot later than this. That’s good news for all of you!
Whether it’s Brett Favre or Sage Rosenfels tossing him the rock in 2009, Berrian should have a great ’09. Consider him a very crafty fantasy WR3.
He could arguably be the first tight end taken on draft day in any format.
Greene should fall further than this on draft day, but we believe in this rookie and he should have the starting gig by Week 8 or 9. If he somehow lands the starting running back job before Week 1, he will be an early fourth-round pick. If he doesn’t, he might slip further than you think, but this is where we have him slotted at the moment.
This could be a monster season for Jackson, who looks great in OTAs by the way!
This might be a touch early for Housh, but he should have a solid campaign in 2009 in Seattle.
If Westy and Desean Jackson weren’t explosive enough, now McNabb has LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin on the Eagles’ roster, which almost guarantees McNabb explosive weapons at all times in 2009. Bargain alert!
The move to Chicago clearly hurt his fantasy value, but many here at FFX still like his 2009 upside. Chicago might bring in another receiver before August, so keep an eye on that using our Breaking News Wire.
McCoy will either go a lot higher than this on draft day, or he will fall into the 7th- and 8th-rounds. His draft slot will depend on the health of Westbrook (ankle). If you plan on drafting Westbrook in 2009, McCoy is a must-own, so know your ADPs and reach a round early on McCoy if need be. The duo might land fantasy owners top five overall fantasy numbers this upcoming season.
Many believe in the receiver, but many do not. He makes a safe fantasy WR3, but counting on more is a bit risky. This is a good spot for Gonzo.
Many expect a bounce-back season out of Palmer this year.
This could be a touch too high, as Olsen could fall much further come August, but the tight end might be a top 4-5 fantasy TE in 2009. He might be worth reaching for.
Nice Work! Would love to see a few more of these in a couple of months.
Thanks.
Who is missing from this short six rounds? Who is too high? Too low?
Too High:
De’Angelo Williams, Randy Moss (just a tad), LT2, Westbrook, Colston, B. Edwards, Addai, Wells, Moreno, McFadden, RAY RICE, FWP, LJ, A. Bryant, C. Palmer, Greg Olsen.
Too Low:
Wes Welker, Rivers.
Missing:
Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub at the very end (especially if you’re going to put Palmer in the first 6 rounds). Derrick Ward should be on there as well as Donald Brown if you are going to put Greene and McCoy on the list.
Of course this depends on scoring but otherwise I think the draft positions look just about right.
Good work fellas.
Nice additions. It will be interesting to see how much things change in just one month.