Our regular readers know that “Bold Is How We Roll” here at Fantasy Football Xtreme. How bold can we get? How about this:
Ronnie Brown will finish as a top 8 fantasy running back in 2009!
Does this mean that fantasy owners should reach for the Dolphins running back come August and grab the guy in the top 10-15 overall? Absolutely NOT. Now, that being said, we do have Brown slotted at 2.08 in our 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft in June, but that’s a pure FFX staff mock and we’re presenting how we rank the 2009 talent — He will almost certainly fall in most everyone’s upcoming August draft!
Brown’s current ADP is in the third- to fourth-round range (between 3.04 and 4.04). Reaching a few slots to ensure that you land him is fine, but let him fall into that third-round and take full advantage of that draft value. I have a handful of “must-have” players this year given their 2009 fantasy football draft values and Brown is at the very top of my list.
Not everyone here at FFX agrees with my Brown predictions, but most FFX staffers/contributors see him as a runner that can potentially play like a top 15 overall pick when all is said and done. I, on the other hand, see the guy playing as well as players like Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton and even Clinton Portis. Before I jump into why I’m optimistic, let’s take a glance at Brown’s career stats and 2007 game logs.
Rushing |
Receiving |
||||||||||
Year |
Team |
G |
Ru |
Yards |
Y/G |
Avg |
100 Gms |
TD |
Rec |
Yards |
TD |
2005 |
MIA |
15 |
207 |
907 |
60.5 |
4.4 |
2 |
4 |
32 |
232 |
1 |
2006 |
MIA |
13 |
241 |
1,008 |
77.5 |
4.2 |
4 |
5 |
33 |
276 |
0 |
2007 |
MIA |
7 |
119 |
602 |
86.0 |
5.1 |
4 |
4 |
39 |
389 |
1 |
2008 |
MIA |
16 |
214 |
916 |
57.3 |
4.3 |
3 |
10 |
33 |
254 |
0 |
Week 1: 11 rushes for 32 yards, 6 recptions for 40 yards and 0TDs
Week 2: 11 rushes for 33 yards, 2 receptions for 36 yards and 0TDs
Week 3: 23 rushes for 112 yards, 6 receptions for 99 yards and 3TDs
Week 4: 15 rushes for 134 yards, 6 receptions for 73 yards and 1TD
Week 5: 23 rushes for 114 yards, 5 receptions for 39 yards and 1TD
Week 6: 19 rushes for 101 yards, 9 receptions for 69 yards and 0TDs
Week 7: 17 rushes for 76 yards, 5 receptions for 33 yards and 0TDs
Brown clearly didn’t produce amazing overall numbers in 2008, his first season back from ACL surgery. That said, most runners take a full season to get back to 100 percent. Quarterbacks can rebound quicker from ACL tears, but runners are very different (read more on ACL tears). Given that last season was his first campaign back in action, I have to say I’m extremely optimistic about 2009. At times last season, Brown showed flashes of brilliance — More importantly, he played 16 games. He also was the center piece of that tremendously solid Wildcat offense, and he had, and currently has, the confidence of the coaching staff. The carries will be there in 2009, he just needs to stay healthy — And I believe that he will stay healthy. In fact, we just posted on our Fantasy Football Breaking News Wire that Brown has reportedly looked fit in recent OTAs and he looks faster than ever. If you want differing opinions on Brown’s upcoming 2009 season, read this breaking news post after you’re done with this article.
Let’s dig deeper into Brown’s numbers, specifically his 2007 (pre-injury) numbers.
Ok, back to pure stats. Let’s start with his 2007 season, which was the year he suffered the torn ACL. Brown struggled in the first two games of that 2007 season — This actually makes things even more interesting, because on seven games, Brown was on pace for 2,265 total yards (rushing/receiving) — Then he suffered that ACL tear during Week 7. Through those seven games, though, Brown was a top two fantasy running back. Top two! For some reason, no one remembers this.
You’re probably asking if I really think that Brown will total over 2,000 ru/rec yards in 2009? No, it’s tough to forecast 16 games using just a seven-game sample, but I truly envision him rushing for over 1,500 and I see him pulling in 350 through the air. I also see the rusher scoring 10+ touchdowns. Crazy? Maybe, but I remember being called crazy last year with all of my Michael Turner predictions. Don’t get me wrong, I miss my share of bold predictions, like my predictions about Aaron Rodgers struggling in 2008… When dealing with bold content, you’re not going to land everything, but it’s my job to alert all of you Xtremers when I get that feeling — And I’m getting that feeling again!
So I will say it again: Get your tickets to the Ronnie Brown show before the show sells out. The first appearance is on September 13th at Atlanta. Brown is set to be a monster steal in 2009 redraft leagues and he is an even bigger bargain right now in dynasty formats. Get Brown on your rosters in 2009!
on this post - (31) Posts
Ok, bring on the “What?” comments!
totally agree with you on this one
grabed him 5.04 in a 12 team dynasty he has that bargin value grab him as a #2 or 3 back but has the potential to put up points like a #1
im feeling pretty comfortrable having MJD slaton brown as my top three backs this year.
lets just hope ronnie can stay healthy when hes 100% on the field hes as good as any top 10 back
I totally agree, Some of his numbers in games were poor last year, but I clearly remember how good he was in 2007. I don’t know about 1,500 yards but 10 + TD’s is a lock (if healthy).
Ronnie Brown and Darren McFadden are the too biggest under ranked RB’s I think.
I think they both could finish in the top 10.
What ??? LOL
I agree ,Brown showed flashes of brilliance and nothing “wrong” to be optimistic about 2009. I am interesting ,were do you rank Brown potential in Dynasty ? Compare to K.Smith,Wells and Barber for example. He is 27,ACL Tear,and let’s faced Miami offense had some question marks.
I also like McFadden, cnl1975. He has great value right now in all formats and might be a fantastic flex or even low-end RB2 in larger leagues.
Z: I have Wells above all those guys for sure. Wells has top 5-10 potential for a handful of years. While I don’t see Brown dominating into his 30s, I think two very good seasons are possible with a hope for a third. Let’s face it, expecting 30 year-old runners to dominate isn’t wise (read our 30 year-old rushers article if you haven’t).
I still trade for Brown, though, in dynasty leagues just because he can be had at the cost of a 5-6 round pick in some cases. For a monster 2009 season and possible monster 2010 season, I think he is worth going after. Would I ever expect top 10 numbers for this year and even next? NO. Not expect… Should anyone trade another second-round runner for Brown in any format? NO. The point is that this is a bit bold and the only real value is in that he can be had cheap. If he only produces top 15-20RB numbers, well, you didn’t spend more than that to get him, so you don’t lose out. It’s all about value and upside — Brown has it.
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100% agree -even dynasty format. Right after the superbowl, I traded Santonio Holmes and Dallas Clark for him. I’m a bliever.
I agree with your article Smitty. I liked Brown’s potential for ‘09, but really jumped on board when I heard how fit and fast he looked and how Ricky Williams looked to have lost a step. I think they will want a time share in Miami, but Brown’s play will force the coaches to leave him on the field! I just traded B. Westbrook and 3.2 (rookie draft) for R. Brown and 4.3 . I am excited about ‘09 as I now have M. Turner, D. Williams and R. Brown.
Sorry, I am going to have to disagree with you guys. I don’t think he was impressive at all last year. He scored single digit fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games, right when you needed him the most. If you take out his crazy 5 touchdown performance, he only logged six scores and 803 rushing yards for the entire rest of the season. Who wants that!? Brown is a solid #3 RB that people are drafting as a #2 RB.
Week 4 is over. Brown is the 2nd best back in football so far (fantasy wise). Things are looking good.