Will Brian Westbrook crank out one more elite fantasy football season in 2009? Or, will the stud begin his fall from the elite, as he enters the 2009 NFL season at the dreaded age of 30?
It’s no secret that NFL running backs often fall off the face of the fantasy earth when they enter a season at 30 or older. On rare occasions 30 year-old running backs do dominate (Emmitt Smith, Thomas Jones, Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin), but for the most part, entering a season at 30 screams downfall. Looking for detailed research on this topic? If so, read our 30 Year-Old Running Backs: The Age Of Decline article.
So back to the first line in this article: Will Brian Westbrook crank out one more elite fantasy football season in 2009? I say yes — And no. Let me explain.
Westbrook has a few things going against him as he enters 2009 at the age of 30. For starters, he has bad knees and a history of always being banged up. Westy consistently makes the Eagles’ weekly injury report and he always seems to have a plethora of injuries, ranging from his knees to ankles. The team also added rookie running back LeSeaon McCoy to the roster, which some think could lead to more of a sharing situation if Westbrook brings any lingering injuries into the 2009 NFL season. All that said, Westbrook is one tough runner — He may be often injured, but he plays through a majority of the injuries and he has missed just five games over the past three seasons. That’s not an insane amount of missed games given the injury tag slapped across the top of his resume.
Before we get to Westbrook’s dreaded age of 30, what about carries? How do his career carry totals compare to other declining rushers? Well, Westy has never carried the football over 300 times in one season and he has carried the ball over 240 times just once in his eight years. His career NFL carry total is 1,247. Need comparisons? Clinton Portis has carried the football 2,052 times and many still believe he has one more elite season left. Granted Westbrook has pulled in 168 more career receptions than Portis, and he has some return wear and tear as well, but all in all Westbrook has well over 600 less ru/rec touches than Portis. This should give Westy owners some hope heading into 2009. Another example would be that of Shaun Alexander. The Seattle rusher had a monster 27 touchdown season at the age of 28. He then fell off the face of the earth during his 29-age season (2006) and heading into that downfall-of-a-season, Alexander had 1,717 career NFL carries to his name (1,905 touches) — Again, Westbrook has only 1,247 career carries to his name, but his total offensive touches (1,648) are close to Alexander’s totals entering that downfall-of-a-season (2006) — But Westbrook is 30 and Alexander was 29 when at those totals. The year might make a difference.
Let me guess, you’re now more conflicted than ever? Don’t worry, you’re not alone, but there is a solution!
The Solution: Draft Brian Westbrook in 2009 (in the 10-14 range) and handcuff him to LeSean McCoy (reach for him to ensure you get him, though) — Do this and you will likely have top 5-7 fantasy running back production!
McCoy is a receiving-ready runner and he will excel if forced into that Eagles attack. Given Westbrook’s history of playing hurt, I feel that it is safe to assume that on Sundays, Westy will either be starting or ruled out — I don’t see much in between with that, nor do I see a RBBC of any kind, even if Westbrook sits for a game or two and then returns to the line-up after McCoy shows his stuff.
Of course McCoy will get touches, even if Westbrook is healthy. Every runner needs occasional rest, as spelling Westbrook could lead to the stud playing 14-15 games this season. For the most part, I predict that when the Eagles’ starter is on the field, he is going to play like a starter.
Over the past two seasons, Westbrook has carried the ball under 12 times just twice, which means that even though he is always on the injury report, he typically doesn’t enter a contest to only play a little. In games played in 2009, I firmly believe that Westbrook will be a top 5-7 fantasy running back. Given that he is 30 years of age, though, I ultimately feel that he will miss a handful of games, probably around the 4-6 range. That’s quite a bit, I know… I also know that Alexander showed no signs of breaking down the year after his 27 touchdown season, but I strongly believe that Westbrook hasn’t lost a step — Yet. I envision that we will all see a huge drop off in talent entering 2010 (his 31-age season), but I think the talent is still there heading into ‘09. It won’t be lack of talent that strikes Westy, it will be age/injury that hurts his 2009 fantasy totals. While the possibility of missing 4-6 games would typically scare me off from drafting him near the 10-14 overall range, the McCoy factor makes this a safe RB1 situation.
Westbrook’s ADP is currently right around the 12-14 overall range. Take full advantage of that in 2009 and draft him at the top of the second-round if you can let him fall that far — Then just be sure to draft McCoy and handcuff the two. If you invest in Westy, draft McCoy an entire round before his current ADP if need be. It’s worth the security and it is the key to 16 week fantasy production! Frank Gore and Brian Westbrook — Start your 2009 yearly draft off with those two and you’ll be in great shape heading into 2009!
Year |
Team |
G |
GS |
Att |
Ru Yrds |
Avg |
Ru TDs |
Rec |
Re Yrds |
Re TDs |
2008 |
PHI |
14 |
14 |
233 |
936 |
4.0 |
9 |
54 |
402 |
5 |
2007 |
PHI |
15 |
15 |
278 |
1,333 |
4.8 |
7 |
90 |
771 |
5 |
2006 |
PHI |
15 |
14 |
240 |
1,217 |
5.1 |
7 |
77 |
699 |
4 |
2005 |
PHI |
12 |
12 |
156 |
617 |
4.0 |
3 |
61 |
616 |
4 |
2004 |
PHI |
13 |
12 |
177 |
812 |
4.6 |
3 |
73 |
703 |
6 |
on this post - (11) Posts
I agree with your analysis and conclusions. Many articles have been written about backs going over 370 carries in a season is the sign of their doom. To me it’s the total touches in a carrier not in one year. People are spelling the end of Turner after last years totals. Because he wasn’t a starter he is practically brand new. I think Westy will be healthier than he was last year. For both Turner and Westy you should be able to get at a lower spot than their real value.
Nice job Smitty. Unfortunately, for me, Westbrook will likely be kept in both of my 10 team leagues.
If Westy’s ADP is 2.1 or higher, it is a guarantee that one guy who owns him will give up his 2.10 to keep Westbrook. Fortunately that guy doesn’t know of this website, so I will try to grab McCoy late and hope that Westy misses some games early in the year
We Just had a Draft for a brand new 10 team dynasty league everybody has atleast 5 years expirience in $$ leuages. I got Westy with the 3rd pick of the 3rd round, but didnt get Mccoy in the rookie draft which was before our reg draft. I thought there was no way to pass up Westrbrook that late and hopefully I can work out a trade for Mcoy.MJD is my #1 back
All great comments so far. His lack of 300 carry seasons might just give him 10-12 games of domination. I’m expecting the lack of carries will help him stay dominate, even though the age will force him to sit (but it won’t be due to lack of talent). That’s why McCoy is such a must, though, as I’m expecting at least 4 missed games.
I’m leary, Smitty. I own Westy in one league and I’m afraid to keep him. Could Philly’s rb crew end up like Baltimore’s lasty year? Not scoring many ff points.
I can’t be certain that Philly won’t use a RBBC approach if let’s say McCoy starts out the season and Westbrook can’t play Weeks 1-4… that could make it messy, but honestly I think Westy has earned that starting gig and the Eagles aren’t going to allow him to lose his job due to injury. He has been far too productive for far too long to just lose his gig. Sharing carries is fine to an extent, and I don’t think the Eagles will ever split it down the middle and make things impossible for fantasy owners — Westy will get his when on the field, and as I state in the article, he usually doesn’t come in and out of games to the point where you waste a start on him when he is banged up.
Again, owning just Westy isn’t going to help you win your league in 2009. Owning both is a different story. That’s the point of the article above, not just Westy.
Keep it coming. Good comments, questions and even good counters. No one can say for certain what is going to happen.
[...] Grabbing Brian Westbrook at the end of the first or early second could be a great value pick this season, but make sure to get LeSean McCoy too. [Fantasy Football Xtreme] [...]
I agree with your analysis of the situation in Philly but I disagree with the conclusion that the optimal solution for capitalizing on Westy’s seemingly guaranteed demise is to draft and handcuff him with McCoy. In my opinion, it would be better to draft the top WR (or two) that would be likely available (hopefully Fitz or A. Johnson–heck Moss or Cal. Johnson for that matter) and then load up on RBs in the middle round. I know that it is a ‘risky’ strategy but then again, what strategy does not have some inherent risk?
Take McCoy in the 7th, or whatever is necessary given his ADP, grab some other young RB talents such as Moreno, Wells, Felix Jones in the mid rounds with him and plan on them being your boom picks rather than making due with the crapshoot that comes with the 10th-30th ranked WRs.
Alternatively, grab guys like D. Ward, K. Smith, M. Lynch and P. Thomas in the 3rd and 4th and you’re not giving up too much in the way of points.
As a closing note, one thing that I think is often overlooked with drafting an injury prone RB and handcuffing him is that having your stud get injured in a game (as is often the case with injuries) can oftentimes cost you that week’s game because of the loss of production. The handcuff is not subbed in to take up the lost production unless he happens to also be in your starting lineup and will therefore not do you any good until the following week. If you have more strength at the other positions (WR in the above example) and have middling RBs starting (such as K. Smith or D. Ward) with handcuffs behind them (such as McCoy) you should have a more consistent team with boom potential if the handcuff comes in to perform like a stud when you put him in the starting lineup following the stud’s injury.
Just some food for thought.
All good comments. Of course there are other strategies one can use, like the stockpiling of Wells, Moreno and McCoy types, all while you spend your early round picks on WRs and a QB… I’m not arguing that is a good plan of attack and you will find that I’ve written about that strategy on the Site this off-season. I still believe in the Westy/McCoy plan of attack, though. I think Westy when starting will be top 5, whereas the platoon of rookies and Rice types won’t produce top 5 numbers… so there are advantages of having that Westbrook type production no matter how short lived it is. My guess is he misses a handful of games, but Westy is going to play like a top 5-10RB for more than half a season IMO. That makes this Westy/McCoy strategy worth looking at IMO.
One thing that I have neglected to mention, once again, but bears repeating is the importance of one’s scoring system on deciding what draft strategy to pursue. In this particular situation, however, it might not make as much difference because Westy’s value is much higher in PPR formats, as are the WRs that a manager could be taking in lieu of a RB in rounds 1 and 2. I’m hesitant to call this aspect a wash but I haven’t the time to discuss further. I’ll follow up with a post on this a bit later.