It’s extremely early to sling out some 2009 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em Advice, but that’s just how we roll here at Fantasy Football Xtreme. Keep in mind that we will update this periodically throughout July-August, so this is just an early glance at Week 1 of the 2009 fantasy football season. Enjoy!
It’s only July, so clearly things are going to change between now and Week 1. That said, as of this moment, I do not trust Larry Johnson. Of course this could change with some strong preseason play by the Chief, but for now I have J-Stew ranked ahead of L.J. until further notice. Both Johnson and Jonathan Stewart face top four rushing defenses based off last year’s stats, but Stewart is more likely of the two runners to punch in a score. J-Stew had 10 rushing touchdowns last season, while L.J. scored just three total touchdowns on 12 games. Also, Baltimore surrendered just three rushing touchdowns last year and the Eagles gave up seven. If L.J. was going up against a weak rushing defense and Stewart was the only one of the two going up against a tough defensive rushing unit, one might be able to make a case for starting Johnson. Because that isn’t the case, Stewart is the runner to start if in this situation.
You ave Larry Johnson, a very questionable fantasy RB2 in 2009, facing an elite rushing defense that ranked third against the run last year. Then you have a back-up running back in Carolina (Jonathan Stewart) going up against the fourth-best rushing defense from last season… This is a tough call. I think because Stewart is a touchdown specialist, and given he gained that reputation in a part-time role last year, he is the player to start of these two. Stewart may or may not get more touches this season, but if he can get 10 scores in a worst case scenario like last season, I think he is a must-start flex this year in most leagues and he even makes a decent fantasy RB2 in larger leagues.
This is a tough one, but only because it’s early in the month of July and we don’t know how healthy Reggie Bush will be come Week 1. Assuming he is on the field and even close to 100 percent, I start Reggie without hesitation. Grant faces the Bears, a defensive unit that ranked 5th against the run in 2008. Chicago did surrender 16 rushing touchdowns last year, but that entire Bears defense will be even tougher in 2009 with the addition of Jay Cutler. Long and successful drives on offense will keep that Bears’ defensive unit fresh. Grant will have a tough time in Week 1 and I think that the Bears will force Aaron Rodgers to win this one through the air. As for Bush, he couldn’t have a better match-up in Week 1, as Detroit was dead last against the run last season, surrendering 172.1 rushing yards per game. The Lions also gave up 31 rushing touchdowns. This match-up is gold for both Pierre Thomas and Bush. Thomas is the starter in New Orleans this season, but Bush will get his touches. In fact, the better Thomas is in 2009, the better Bush will be. They both play entirely different roles in that potent offensive attack and if defenses have to focus on Thomas, Bush is going to break off long runs and take screen passes house. Obviously we need to address this dilemma once again as we near September, but for right now, 100 total yards and a score can be had by Bush in Week 1 against the Lions.
Ryan Grant is battling against a top five rushing defense and Reggie Bush gets to run against the league’s worst rushing defense. The Lions are awful against the run. I mean awful! The gave up 2,754 rushing yards on the year in ’08, which is over 170 rushing yards per game, and they allowed 31 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. Only the Rams and Broncos even come close to rushing touchdowns surrendered (26), so as long as Bush is healthy and ready to play, which sounds like it will be the case, he is the smartest play by far.
The Ronnie Brown show begins in September — Do you have your tickets yet? Atlanta was 25th against the run last year, surrendering 127.9 yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry and 17 rushing touchdowns, so even doubters should be excited about this Week 1 match-up. I have already made it very clear that Ronnie Brown is a must-own in 2009 — Brown didn’t exploded during his first season back from ACL surgery, but he played 16 games last year on the still-healing knee. He also, at times, showed flashes of brilliance and managed to score 10 times. That’s impressive. Ten scores and the keys to that Dolphins Wildcat offense… there is a lot to be excited about in 2009 when it comes to Brown. I know many of you feel that Ronnie finished the season at a crawl, but his yards per carry average was still 4.3 on the season. That isn’t a fantastic average or anything, but it isn’t half bad considering he wasn’t near 100 percent for most of the season. A slow finish with a 4.3 yards per carry average just tells me that Brown wasn’t getting the touches down the stretch, it wasn’t that he wasn’t producing. Is that a concern? No, I don’t think so. When runners suffer ACL injuries, they often need a full season of playing on the knee before they can get back to their pre-injury workload and form. With no one in Miami to steal carries, and Ricky is no threat if you ask me, the touches will be there for Brown in 2009 — And it all starts on September 13th at Atlanta! My advice is to trade for Brown before he shines in Week 1. As for Portis, he faces a top 10 rushing defense (Giants) in Week 1. This one isn’t even close in my opinion — Start Brown and expect at least 100 yards rushing and at least one score. I have a strange feeling that he could have a much bigger game than that, though.
I like Ronnie Brown this year, but not as much as Smitty. I think he has a change to prove Smitty right, but I think I will let him produce some elite numbers before I put elite backs like Clinton Portis on the bench. I’m not extremely high on Portis in dynasty leagues, but he has one more very good season left. Portis has the tougher match-up, as he faces the Giants (9th) in Week 1, but I am the kind of owner that sticks with proven studs regardless of the match-ups. Brown does have a nice match-up against Atlanta (25th), so use him if you can, like in a flex spot, but Portis is a must-start until he shows signs of decline.
Start Donnie Avery. Chad Ochocinco is extremely underrated right now, and I advise fantasy owners to try acquiring him via trade while you still can, but I’m extremely high on Avery this season. In no way am I advising that anyone treat Avery like a fantasy WR2, as he can be had via trade at the cost of a WR3/4, but I truly believe that Avery could finish as a top 15-20 fantasy wide receiver at season’s end. Call me crazy, call me whatever you want, but I see talent in this kid and that Rams offensive line is going to be much improved. Steven Jackson is going to explode and that Rams passing attack will be able to move the football. Will the Rams win a lot of games? Will they be a playoff team? Well, I’m not saying that, but they will move the football and they will score points. In fact, if the Rams are down most of the time in 2009, that means they will be forced to pass their way back into games — This is all good news for Avery and the Rams don’t have to win in order for him to succeed. As for Ochocinco, he makes a fine fantasy WR3 start in Week 1, but I want to see him produce before I start him over an Xtreme sleeper like Avery. Start Avery against Seattle and expect at lest 75 yards and a score.
Give me Chad Ochocinco all day long. I like Donnie Avery and he could turn out to be a fine pro someday soon, but Chad is proven and T.J. Houshmandzadeh is now in Seattle. Laveranues Coles is still a quality receiver, and he will catch some passes this year, but I’d rather see him in the Bengals’ line-up over Housh because I think it will take time for Palmer and Coles to build a strong rapport. This means Palmer will be turning to Ochocinco often in the first-half of the 2009 season. Start Chad and you will probably get 80 yards and a touchdown. Avery could also produce such numbers, but I think he just comes with more risk than Chad. Did I really just say that?
Smitty’s Week 1 Predictions
Coming In August! |
simply hilarious that a start or sit for week 1 is already out in early july…ill bet its the only one on the entire net to do so…i love you guys…
[...] 1 of the NFL season still is about two months away, which makes this week 1 start and sit advice a little early. But useful, nonetheless. [Fantasy Football [...]
[...] 1 of the NFL season still is about two months away, which makes this week 1 start and sit advice a little early. But useful, nonetheless. [Fantasy Football [...]
Smitty and company, I’d like to see week by week rankings according to match-up. Thanks! You guys rock!
Well don’t forget that we have Weekly Player Projections each and ever week for just about every quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end.
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