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We’re approaching mid-July and it’s time to revisit the idea of ranking the 2009 NFL Rookie Running Backs. Has the Jay Cutler trade dropped Knowshon Moreno below Chris Wells? Is LeSean McCoy climbing safely into that No. 3 spot? The 2009 fantasy football season is right around the corner, so let’s jump right into it.
Updated Last: 7/10/09
Height: 6-1, Weight: 237 | Date of Birth: 8/7/88 | College: Ohio State
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2006 |
104 |
576 |
5.5 |
7 |
2 |
16 |
0 |
2007 |
274 |
1,609 |
5.9 |
15 |
5 |
21 |
0 |
2008 |
207 |
1,197 |
5.8 |
8 |
8 |
47 |
0 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09] Knowshon Moreno was easily our number one ranked rookie rusher right out of the 2009 NFL Draft, but after Jay Cutler was traded to Chicago, Wells climbed into that No. 1 spot. We still love Moreno for the future, and he still has quality upside in 2009, but Wells owns that top spot now. Wells is getting plugged into one of the league’s most potent offensive attacks and that Cardinals coaching staff wants to run the football more in the coming years. If healthy for most of his rookie campaign, Wells shouldn’t have any problem reaching 1,000 yards rushing. He is certainly capable of 7-8 scores, if not more. According to recent reports, the rookie has shed 18 pounds off of his 247-pound frame. Wells has been working out with the Cardinals strength and conditioning coach and is now expected to play around 225 pounds. This could be good or bad for the rookie, as it’s tough playing at a new weight, but he might be quicker and faster in his new skin. Plus, 225 pounds is the perfect weight for a full-time rusher — The shed weight could lead to a longer career. Wells might end up being a top 10 overall pick in 2010 fantasy football drafts!
Player Comparison: Michael Turner
Forty Time: reportedly 4.34-4.46 at Pro Day | 4.59 Combine time View Times
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2 | Clip 3 | Clip 4
Height: 5-11, Weight: 217 | Date of Birth: 7/16/87 | College: Georgia
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2007 |
248 |
1,334 |
5.4 |
14 |
20 |
253 |
0 |
2008 |
250 |
1,400 |
5.6 |
16 |
33 |
392 |
2 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09] Of all of the 2009 rookie running backs, Chris Wells may have the most 2009 fantasy appeal, but Knowshon Moreno has just as much upside for the future. If Cutler was still in Denver, we’d be predicting top 20-25 overall production out of Moreno in 2009. Think Chris Johnson-type production! He was gold with Cutler under center — Unfortunately, that new Broncos coaching staff decided to tear apart that successful offensive attack and Moreno owners will suffer a bit right out of the gate. Don’t get us wrong, Moreno still has the ability to play like a strong flex-option (or low-end fantasy RB2) in ‘09, but that 2009 Denver quarterback situation will certainly hurt the rushing game — At least initially. Defenses will have an easier time keeping an eye on both the Broncos’ rushing attack and passing attack with Cutler in Chicago. Cutler would have made it near impossible for opposing defenses to stack the box against Moreno during his rookie run. All that said, things change quickly in this league, so don’t let the Cutler disaster bump Moreno down too far when it comes to your personal set of dynasty rankings. Give Denver a year to iron things out at the quarterback slot and expect Moreno to enter 2010 fantasy yearly league drafts as a possible top 15 overall pick — He could be valued higher or lower than that, it just all depends on how that passing attack progresses between now and then. For 2009 alone, expect 900 or so rushing yards and 6-7 scores. Moreno is certainly capable of more, but it’s tough to expect it.
Player Comparison: LaDainian Tomlinson
Forty Time: 4.60 Pro Day | 4.63 Combine time View Times
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2 | Clip 3 | Clip 4
Height: 5-11, Weight: 235 | Date of Birth: 8/1/85 | College: Iowa
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2005 |
37 |
173 |
4.7 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2006 |
32 |
205 |
6.4 |
1 |
3 |
23 |
0 |
2008 |
307 |
1,850 |
6.0 |
20 |
8 |
49 |
0 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09] With all the “Brian Westbrook is 30 and done” talk, it’s easy to slot LeSean McCoy here at the number three spot. McCoy might deserve the third spot in dynasty formats, but Greene is still our third ranked rookie runner for 2009. Greene reminds us a lot of a healthy Ronnie Brown. If comparing him to Brown doesn’t impress you, you obviously have not read our recent article on why Ronnie Brown is a must-have in 2009. Greene is powerful, quick and the Jets coaching staff had him as the top rookie runner on their draft board back in April. They specifically traded up in the draft to snag Greene, so he obviously is the future of that Jets rushing attack — The question is, will Thomas Jones lose his job to Greene in 2009 and when? Most will argue that Jones isn’t going anywhere after his impressive 2008 campaign, but the runner will be 31 when the 2009 season kicks off. If you read our 30 year-old running back article, you will see that we don’t believe in Jones in 2009. Based on the research in the article, Jones the odds are against him playing a long and healthy season at the age of 31 (at least as the Jets’ starter) — We firmly believe that Greene will take over at some point in 2009, but the question is when? If it’s before Week 7-8, Greene can still have a fine rookie season and could produce solid fantasy RB2-type numbers per start. If Greene gets into that line-up earlier, he could finish as a top 15RB as a rookie… If he gets into that line-up late in the year, he will merely be useful for the fantasy playoffs. There is risk in waiting for Greene, as Jones could stay healthy by way of sharing carries with both Greene and Leon Washington for most of the year… that is one possibility, a possibility that would hurt the values of all three Jets rushers in ‘09. We’re making assumptions and predictions when it comes to ranking Greene, but the same risk, and need for assumption, is present with LeSean McCoy. If Westbrook stays healthy and starts 12 or so games in 2009, McCoy is in the same boat. After Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno, there will be some risk, and some predicting, that needs to be factored in when slotting the remaining rookie runners. For now, Greene is our choice.
Player Comparison: Ronnie Brown
Forty Time: 4.50 Pro Day | 4.63 Combine time View Times
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2 | Clip 3
Height: 5-11, Weight: 197 | Date of Birth: 7/12/88 | College: Pittsburgh
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2007 |
276 |
1,328 |
4.8 |
14 |
33 |
244 |
1 |
2008 |
308 |
1,488 |
4.8 |
21 |
32 |
305 |
0 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09] Brian Westbrook (ankle surgery) is expected to be ready for the 2009 regular season, but that could clearly change heading into September. If Westy isn’t ready to roll in Week 1, LeSean McCoy will climb up in dynasty and redraft ADPs in insane fashion. Even if Westy is ready to go in Week 1, McCoy is still in our top 4-5 for rookie rushers entering 2009. It can be argued that he is No. 3 in dynasty formats. McCoy could eventually be a second-round fantasy pick in future years — He has that much upside in that Eagles offense.
Player Comparison: DeAngelo Williams
Forty Time: 4.45 projection (DNP Combine) | View Times
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2 | Clip 3 | Clip 4
Height: 5-10, Weight: 208 | Date of Birth: 4/11/87 | College: Connecticut
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2006 |
161 |
896 |
5.6 |
7 |
13 |
66 |
2 |
2007 |
170 |
821 |
4.8 |
8 |
14 |
85 |
0 |
2008 |
367 |
2,083 |
5.7 |
18 |
21 |
125 |
0 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09>] Donald Brown is absolutely a must-own for Joseph Addai owners, but is he even the future of that Colts rushing attack? The Derrick Ward-like runner is a solid running back, but so is Addai. Addai is still very young and has really only had one bad season so far in his young NFL career. We’re not going to pretend that we know what is going to happen in Indy in 2009, and we certainly won’t pretend that we know what is going to happen in future years — All we can say is that both Addai and Brown are very capable of 15 fantasy RB numbers in that Colts’ potent offensive attack. The only way to ensure 2009 production is to own both. The only way to ensure production in 2009 and beyond is to own both. We will say that the duo is more valuable than most think. Together, fantasy owners have a very solid fantasy RB2.
Player Comparison: Derrick Ward
Forty Time: 4.51 Combine time | View Times
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2
Height: 5-10, Weight: 200 | Date of Birth: 2/10/1984 | College: Abilene Christian
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2007 |
251 |
2,165 |
8.62 |
35 |
46 |
565 |
4 |
2008 |
266 |
2,156 |
8.10 |
28 |
47 |
826 |
6 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09] Bernard Scott is a boom or bust pick heading into 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts. The guy is insanely talented and couldn’t have landed in a better situation, as Cedric Benson is really the only standing in Scott’s way in Cincy. Scott has had a lot of off-the-field problems, though, which is the biggest negative attached to his name. He played for four colleges and was reportedly arrested five times. If you ignore all of that, the kid is a possible stud-in-the-making. He won the Division II equivalent to the Heisman in 2008 and finished his college career having rushed for at least 100 yards in 17 consecutive contests. He went over the 200-yard mark in four of his final six college outings and set college records by rushing for 292 yards and seven touchdowns in Abilene Christian’s 93-68 victory over West Texas A&M. Scott has amazing hands, averaging over 17 yards per catch on 47 receptions in 2008. He also racked up 5,712 rush/rec yards and 73TDs in just his last two college seasons. Do we really need to say more? The risk is present, no question, but that risk is low considering Scott is falling into the third-round in early 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts. He is almost all upside at that value! We just took him with the 3.08 pick in our live 2009 expert rookie draft, but to be honest, we’re going to start targeting him in the second-round in future expert rookie drafts just to ensure we land him. Again, a guy with his past and track record is going to come with some risk, but investing, given the cost, is an easy call if you ask me.
Player Comparison: Steven Jackson
Forty Time: 4.56 Combine time | View Times
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2
Height: 5-11, Weight: 210 | Date of Birth: 1/1/1986 | College: Clemson
Stats |
Rushing
|
||||||
Year |
ATT |
YDS |
AVG |
TD |
REC |
YDS |
TD |
2005 |
165 |
879 |
5.3 |
9 |
19 |
152 |
0 |
2006 |
203 |
1,187 |
5.5 |
17 |
6 |
115 |
0 |
2007 |
214 |
1,064 |
5.0 |
10 |
12 |
51 |
2 |
2008 |
171 |
751 |
4.4 |
11 |
14 |
123 |
0 |
Fantasy: [7/10/09] James Davis is a good running back. He has solid speed (4.45-4.49) and has a nose for the end zone (47 touchdowns in four seasons). He knifes his way through rushing lanes like a beast and is very capable between the tackles. Davis, selected by the Browns with the No. 195 overall pick, landed in the perfect situation. Only Jamal Lewis, who turns 30 before the 2009 season kicks off, is standing in his way. Lewis will almost certainly start Week 1 if healthy, but Davis has a good shot at being the future of that Cleveland rushing attack. While we would like to see Davis put on a good 7-10 quality pounds, the Clemson product has the makings of a full-time NFL rusher. Davis almost entered the 2008 NFL Draft after his 1,064-yard junior season, but he decided to return to Clemson for his senior season to again split carries with C.J. Spiller. Despite sharing carries with another stud running back, Davis still had a good season and posted three multiple-TD performances. NFL teams let Davis drop in the 2009 NFL Draft — Well, don’t let him fall in your 2009 fantasy football rookie drafts. He is worth a late first-round grab without question. While he is certainly no lock to succeed, very few backs ever are, there is no reason that this kid can’t be this year’s monster-steal when all is said and done (think Chris Johnson last year).
Player Comparison: Reggie Bush
Forty Time: 4.45-4.49 at Pro Day
Video Footage: Clip 1 | Clip 2
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thanks this is helpful
No prob. Have any additions, duffyworkit?
[...] the original here: 2009 Rookie Running Back Rankings – Post Draft 2 « Fantasy … Tags: aint-the-right, bernard, bernard-scott, better-situation, boom-or-bust, bust-pick, [...]
Once again Smitty, I have to say you have the greatest job ever!!! The only thing I would change would be moving up Bernard Scott, I think he has a great shot at being a hugh pick this year. Ican’t wait to see the week one start bench. The season is right around the corner!!!
Scott is risky, but yep, we agree that the value is there.