It’s never too early to start preparing for the 2009 fantasy football season, especially if you’re in a dynasty or keeper league. Below are a handful of players On-The-Rise and On-The-Decline in the world of fantasy football. This article will address both redraft and dynasty values. Clearly fantasy football players on-the-rise are often good sell-high candidates, but just because a fantasy player’s value is on-the-rise, that doesn’t mean that one still shouldn’t acquire that player. This same kind of logic, but packaged in a slightly different way, can be applied to fantasy football players on-the-decline. So here a few of the most talked about players on-the-rise and on-the-decline heading into early 2009 fantasy football drafts.
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Tom Brady | QB NETom Brady, who suffered a torn ACL during Week 1 of the 2008 NFL season, has been extremely underrated all off-season long. His ADP is definitely starting to climb in recent weeks, but for the most part, fantasy owners are still expecting Brady to kick off the 2009 season in slow fashion. Fantasy owners should take full advantage of this! It’s no secret that running backs coming off ACL injuries often need a full season of mediocrity before they can return to their pre-injury form. Quarterbacks are a different story, though, especially quarterbacks like Tom Brady. Brady won’t be putting his healing knee’s durability to the test like a rusher would. He may not be quite 100 percent come Week 1, but it won’t slow down his style of play. Does this mean that we expect another 50 passing touchdowns out of Tom this upcoming fantasy season? No, that would be asking for a little too much, but I see no reason why Brady can’t throw 38+ scores in ‘09. Honestly, what has changed since 2007, aside from Brady’s injury? The offensive attack still has Randy Moss and Wes Welker catching passes — And the additions of Joey Galloway and Fred Taylor will only provide Brady with more weapons. New England also used their first three picks in the 2009 NFL Draft on defensive players, so that NE defense may have just improved. Brady could end up being the top fantasy scorer at season’s end — His third-round ADP screams value. |
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Ronnie Brown | RB MIAI have already dedicated an entire article on why Ronnie Brown is a must-own in 2009, so I won’t just continue regurgitating the same information over and over again. In summary, the article talks about how undervalued Brown is entering 2009. I’ve seen the Dolphins rusher go as high as the second-round in some early 2009 mock drafts, but I’ve also seen him fall into the fourth-round in others. In my opinion, and again my reasoning can be found here, Brown is capable of top 10RB numbers in 2009. Because his current ADP is in the 3.01 to 3.04 range, Brown could turn out to be one of this year’s biggest fantasy draft day steals. Brown is 27, so it’s possible that he has just 2-3 top years left, but he is even more undervalued in dynasty/keeper leagues, so especially go after Brown in dynasty formats if the price is right. |
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Brent Celek | TE PHIBrent Celek has breakout written all over him this season. The Eagles tight end had 10 catches for 83 yards and 2TDs in last year’s NFC Championship loss at Arizona. Eagles coach Andy Reid recently had this to say on his new starting tight end: “He can be a No. 1 tight end in this league and for us.” Reid said. If waiting on a tight end is your plan of attack entering August, Celek might just be your guy! He is being treated like a top 12-15 fantasy tight end this year, but he can definitely sneak into the top 10 at season’s end. |
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Steven Jackson | RB STLMost years I dread getting handed a late first-round pick in any league, but I’m really liking the later first-round draft slots this year. Why? Well, Steven Jackson is falling into the 5-10 overall range in early 2009 mock drafts. That’s insane draft value! The Rams runner has top three overall upside in 2009 and beyond – He is only 26. He has no business falling past the 1.05 in any draft and in any format. Injuries are always a concern when it comes to S-Jax, as he has missed eight games over the last two NFL seasons, but since getting handed starter-type carries back in 2005, Jackson has never once failed to rush for over 1,000 yards and he has averaged 10 touchdowns per season. Those numbers are extremely impressive given the eight missed games. Some may suggest that the Rams are going to be awful this year and that Jackson will have no room to run the football. I couldn’t disagree more. I predicted big things out of the Falcons and Michael Turner last year and all I heard was how crazy I was. I’m not saying that the Rams offense will be as successful as that 2008 Falcons unit, but I think that the Rams offense will surprise in terms of production. That offensive line will look surprisingly impressive and second-year wide receiver Donnie Avery, who I talk about below, is about to introduce himself to fantasy worlds. Be prepared! Also be prepared for new coach Steve Spagnuolo to make Steven Jackson the centerpiece of that 2009 Rams attack. Our 2009 Full-Season Fantasy Football Projections have Jackson racking up 1,700+ rush/rec yards and 15 total scores. |
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Earl Bennett | WR CHIEarl Bennett is a huge sleeper of ours here at FFX. The second-year receiver is now once again paired with his former college quarterback. Jay Cutler and Bennett played together at Vanderbilt, so Bennett clearly has an edge over all of the other Chicago receivers in the Cutler-rapport department. Greg Olsen will certainly catch a lot of passes in 2009, and he might just have a top five tight end season, but Cutler is going to need another player to feed the rock to. I believe the player will be Bennett. Bennett had three 75-plus reception seasons in a row in college, which included one with Cutler. Given that Bennett is getting drafted in the 11- to 13-round range in early mock drafts, it’s safe to say that the guy is very low-risk/very high-reward candidate. Dynasty league owners should attack the receiver via trade before his value climbs with some solid preseason play. |
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Derrick Ward | RB TBTo be completely honest, I am not the biggest Derrick Ward fan, but that should make this breakdown all the more interesting. I would have thought by this point in July, Ward would be extremely overvalued — But he isn’t being overvalued at all, at least not in most early drafts. In fact, he is looking like quite the bargain. His ADP is in the 5-6 round range right now. Ward is an extremely talented receiving back, which is going to push him to the front of the line in terms of carries in 2009. It may look like a sharing situation initially, as Earnest Graham is going to earn some early touches, but Tampa Bay was third in the league last season in terms of passing to their rushers (98 receptions) — Ward will be the most used back on that roster by the middle of the season. The Tampa Bay running back will likely outperform his draft position in 2009, especially in PPR formats. I’m not going as far as to say that Ward will be a strong fantasy RB2 in 2009, at least on a full-time basis, but don’t be surprised if he turns out to be a fantastic flex-option when all is said and done. |
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Kevin Smith | RB DETKevin Smith continues to rise on everyone’s list — Not mine. There is something about Kevin Smith that I just don’t trust. That Lions offense could struggle to move the ball in 2009. Playing from behind late in games could end up being a good thing for Calvin Johnson owners, but it won’t be a good thing for Smith owners or that Lions rushing attack. I just see Smith disappointing fantasy owners given the cost. Don’t get me wrong, I’d grab Smith as my late fourth-round grab, but his ADP is in the 3.01 to 3.11 range — No thanks at that cost. |
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Eddie Royal | WR DENEddie Royal’s value is starting to fall as of late, but I still believe that he is being overvalued. His ADP was recently in the fifth-round range, even a month or so after the Jay Cutler trade, but the receiver is just now starting to fall in the sixth- to seventh-round range. I’d maybe grab him in the seventh-round, but I really feel like Royal is going to have a real mediocre 2009. Cutler made Royal, and while some will argue that Royal will still shine with Cutler in Chicago, I just don’t see it happening. Kyle Orton might surprise, but he is no Jay Cutler and it takes a Jay Cutler to produce two elite receivers from the same offensive attack. Orton is going to have a tough enough time getting Brandon Marshall the football in ‘09 — Only a heavy Marshall suspension will put Royal back in a position to be a solid fantasy WR2/3. Let someone else count on Royal this upcoming fantasy season and only scoop him up if he is going to be your low-end fantasy WR3. Dynasty league owners should sell-high because you can probably command a Donnie Avery-type, or even an extremely undervalued Ray Rice. You won’t be able to trade Royal in for such players midway through the 2009 season. |
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Donnie Avery | WR STLAs I stated above in my Steven Jackson write-up, that Rams offensive line is going to be much improved in 2009. This is great news for Jackson and it’s great news for Donnie Avery. I made it clear up above that I don’t think that the Rams will win nine games, in fact they might struggle to stay above .500, but that doesn’t mean St. Louis won’t have a somewhat successful season in 2009 — And last time I checked, teams struggling to close out games are often passing their way back into them. This is a good thing for the Rams passing attack (Jackson included, since the runner pulls in a lot passes in that Rams offense). They will move the football and Avery is going to stretch the field. The second-year receiver is now the number one receiver in St. Louis, which means more targets and more receptions. Avery had a very respectable 53 receptions as a rookie last season, and he didn’t start until Week 5. Avery is one of my biggest middle-round sleepers this upcoming season and I firmly believe that he can produce fantasy WR2-type numbers. Dynasty leaguers should attack the rising star in aggressive fashion and redraft leaguers should consider grabbing him slightly before his ADP (7.05 to 7.11). Don’t reach for him in either yearly drafts or overpay via trade — You don’t have to. He is a bargain right now. Get ready for the Donnie Avery show in 2009! |
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Ryan Grant | RB GBRyan Grant could be a bargain in 2009. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin recently said that he would like to run the ball 32-34 times this upcoming season. The great news is that the Packers running back has been falling into the fourth-round in most early mock drafts and he might just throw down solid fantasy RB2 numbers in 2009. However, if his ADP climbs into the third-round, it changes a lot in my opinion. He has good value as someone’s fourth player taken, but that one round is the difference for me — The risk is low if I have three studs sitting right in front of him. |
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Comments? Other additions?
[...] post: 2009 Fantasy Football On The Rise and Decline (July Edition) Tags: answers, brent-celek, derrick-harvey, kevin-smith, manor, manor-scoring, rankings, ronnie, [...]
I’d like to see the stock on L.Johnson. I think he was falling to the 7th round in June, and now he seems to be climbing as high as round 4.
[...] tabs on the fantasy football stock market. Risers include Donnie Avery and Tom Brady. Ronnie Brown and Steven Jackson highlight the fallers. [...]
Yea, LJ is a solid invest-low candidate for sure. I am not sure I trust him this year, but the risk isn’t all that crazy, you’re right. Nice addition.
k.c.joyner wrote that the old fins center only won about 80 percent of his point-of-attack battles while the new c. Grove was in the 90’s. that should definitely help Brown this year. al davis should not be making trades with parcells or belichick. to comment on passing alot in the second halves of games, i like Jamaal Charles in a PPR format being undervalued. his adp is like 135, i have him around 90. i have Buckhalter ranked lower because of Moreno, but if he (Moreno) hits the rookie wall Buckhalter could post good numbers. both the chiefs and broncs have brutal schedules that ease up come playoff time. either way, i think there are points to be had from the rbs. as a bears fan in new england i’ve seen alot of Orton and Cassel dumping the ball off to their ‘backs. love the site, can’t belive you don’t have Hester ranked – from the management to the coaches they have a lot riding on him being productive.
Good stuff, Walt32.
[...] 2009 Fantasy Football On The Rise and Decline (July Edition … [...]