Here is our Week 5 Fantasy Football Start and Bench Advice for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season. Start ‘EM & Sit ‘Em Advice was meant to be bold, yet calculated. We know that and we understand that. We also understand that fantasy owners aren’t looking for answers to the obvious questions, which is why we have addressed more dilemma-like situations entering Week 5 of the 2009 fantasy football season.
Smitty’s Week 5 Thoughts
Get Ready For The Show!Trade for DeAngelo Williams before it’s too late. I sent out this same memo last week heading into his Week 4 bye, as fantasy owners often make deals they normally wouldn’t when facing that bye week. Couple that with the fact that Williams has not had a MONSTER start to the season, you’re looking at a bargain… or you were. This was last week’s advice. What’s this week’s advice? It’s the same… go after Williams, it’s not too late. D-Will is inside my top 4-5 overall moving forward. Using this same logic, and strategy, here is another player to grab heading into his bye week this week…. go get Greg Jennings! What’s to like about Jennings’ value? Well, let’s start with why his value is on the decline. Look at how very different this can be presented. Let’s first start with the negative outlook… Jennings has pulled in just five passes during the last three weeks and didn’t catch a single pass in Week 2. Given that we’re only four weeks into the 2009 NFL season, how can he be doing quietly-solid? If you didn’t have his game log stats in front of you, it would seem almost impossible to spin his first four weeks in a positive fashion, right? Wrong. He has two 100-yard games through those same four weeks and and caught six passes in Week 1, which is one more pass than his sum total of receptions from Weeks 2, 3 and 4. Two 100-yard games is solid and it’s safe to say that Jennings is VERY underrated right now… given that he is coming off of a mediocre Week 4 outing (3 receptions for 31 yards and 0TDs), it’s safe to say that you can steal Jennings away in your league if you couple that with his Week 5 bye. If healthy, and I see no reason why he wouldn’t remain healthy, I have no doubt that Jennings will finish out the season as a top 4-7 fantasy receiver. Go get him! Bench Of The WeekBench Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson, Chad Ochocinco and even Chris Henry against the Ravens this week. Go with better options if you have them! Same goes for Kevin Smith against the Steelers — Bench him if you have a better alternative. Not sure if your alternatives are much better options? ASK OUR STAFF !!!!!! Dynasty CornerI’ve touched on this a lot already through four weeks now (and all off-season long), but get ready for both Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells to breakout. Once they both breakout, it’s game over! Their dynasty values will never be lower! Both could finish the season strong and I expect at least one to be a potential top 10 overall pick next year (in all formats, even yearly league formats). Start ‘Em If You Need A Running Back Start…Jonathan Stewart – If you are thin at the running back position this week, don’t be concerned about plugging Stewart into your line-up. I love DeAngelo Williams moving forward, but Stewart proved last year he can still score double-digit scores with D-Will dropping elite fantasy stats. With that Panthers’ passing game struggling to stay consistent, the coaching staff will likely lean on the run coming off the bye week. This means a ton of running, which means Stewart will get his. Start Stewart against the Redskins (22nd against the run) unless you have much better alternatives. Not sure if you have better alternatives? ASK OUR STAFF !!!!!! |
Before the injury to Correll Buckhalter, I would have said Steve Slaton without question, but with Knowshon Moreno now the main man in Denver it is a tougher decision. Both guys face stout run defenses – Arizona and New England are giving up less than 100 yards per game on the ground to opposing runners. For me, this one comes down to which guy could potentially be more involved in the passing game and which team is more likely to put up more points. In both cases Slaton gets the edge – Arizona is putrid against the pass and that could very well lead to more opportunities for Slaton through the air. I also see this game as a shootout; for me that means a better chance for Slaton to end up in the end zone.
Both RBs have good matchups but not great matchups. Knowshon Moreno and Denver get their first real test of the season going against a defense coming together much faster than anyone expected. With the possible return of Jerod Mayo, that defense will be even tougher. Moreno hasn’t been used as a receiver out of the backfield as of yet, but he has been getting about 15 carries a game so far, which was enough for Ray Rice to run for 100 yards against N.E. last week. With the Patriots giving up 95 yards on the ground per game, I’d expect Moreno to rush for 75 yards, perhaps adding another 10 through the air, depending on Correll Buckhalter’s ankle.
Steve Slaton is going to be involved in a shootout and his targets have decreased with the return of Kevin Walters. While he’s being used more on tosses to the outside and in sweeps, the Arizona defenders have the overall speed to negate the games plans that have worked so well against Jacksonville and Oakland. The Cards give up less than 80 yards on the ground per game. The trouble for Slaton doubles when you consider Houston gives up a generous 165 yards on the ground.
Moreno is who I’d start in this one, although, they may end up with similar numbers if Arizona can establish a run game (Slaton’s productivity could be affected if that happens).
While I would love to elaborate on this one, you couldn’t pay me to put a Raiders player in my lineup right now. Marshawn Lynch is the call here, and considering the matchup, he should be able to put up some decent numbers in his second game back.
One thing equally inept as the Oakland offense is the Cleveland defense. Both rank 31st in the league. The Giants could throw a shutout at Oakland. Sit Michael Bush, I expect NY to get up early and take the run game out of the equation. Marshawn Lynch gets the call in this one against a generous rushing defense. Just don’t expect much from his 15 or so touches. Lynch is more a ppr start than a standard league start.
Rashard Mendenhall had his statement game in week 4 and he is no longer the lazy, uninspired runner many thought he was. Funny how that works. As for this choice, anyone who reads my advice knows I am a “start your studs” guy – but it is hard to make a case for Steven Jackson this week. He is facing one of the better run defenses in the league, but more than that the Rams are in shambles and opponents simply stack the line and force them to move through the air. Jackson suffers for it and his talent, as good as it is, can only carry him so far in any given week. Mendy has the matchup advantage and should have a very good game against that Detroit defense, so he is the call without hesitation.
This is another easy call. If you have either player, you start him. If you have both, double your pleasure. Ok, seriously, Steven Jackson gets 25 plus touches a game, and while I expect the Vikings’ defense to swarm whomever is at QB, they do give up the yards on passes out of the backfield. Despite playing in the worst offense in the NFL, he’ll get 100 total yards and a handful of catches. If there is any Favrebowl hangover, he could even score. With Rashard Mendenhall, at least for me, it’s about how much he’ll produce. Matt Forte torched the Lions’ defense for 121 rushing yards (and a score) and it looked to me as if Mendenhall simultaneously rejuvenated the offensive line and returned smash-mouth football to Pittsburgh this year.
I start Mendenhall against the Lions with excited anticipation, but don’t hesitate to also start Jackson, if you can, as he is an RB2.
For me, Tony Romo is a midline fantasy starter, but he does his best work against bad defenses – and the Chiefs are a bad defense. Yes, he is likely without Roy Willaims this week, but the Cowboys have plenty of guys who can fill his spot and be just as productive. In the end, as long as Jason Witten is playing, Romo will be fine and I can see him with 300+ yards and a couple of scores against KC. Mark Sanchez is not yet at the point where I would put him in my lineup even with a matchup advantage, so the decision is a pretty easy one for me here – start Romo.
I go with Tony Romo, no question. I expect 300 passing yards and 2TDs. Good QBs drool seeing that KC defense during film sessions and this matchup is sure to be good for Romo and the Cowboys. Mark Sanchez travels to face a defense that he should be able to pass on. With the Dolphins ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run, and the Jets producing 130 yards on the ground, that battle should produce enough of a run game to make Sanchez’s job that much easier. He may not get more than 220 through the air, but he should produce 1/2 TDs. The one worry here is that Miami controls the clock with it’s top ranked rushing attack.
Mike Sims-Walker has been on a rampage the last three weeks, hauling in 19 passes for 278 yards and three touchdowns. David Garrard has finally found his man in the passing game, and it should continue this week against a mediocre Seattle defense. Chad Ochocinco has not been nearly as impressive, and given the matchup with Baltimore on the road, I’ll go ahead and pencil Mike into that starting spot.
I don’t know how any owner can sit Mike Sims-Walker right now. I’d say 6/80/1 seems likely against a defense allowing 25+pts per game recently. He’s getting double-digit targets and obviously has the confidence of the QB and coaching staff. In spite of that, I’d start Chad Ochocinco ahead of him this week. He’s also getting double-digit targets recently and has a few more red zone looks, not much, but enough to put him over the top for this week.
Here are the defensive ranks against the run through Week 4.
Rk |
Team |
G |
Yds/G |
TD |
1 |
Baltimore Ravens |
4 |
59.5 |
2 |
2 |
Miami Dolphins |
4 |
61 |
2 |
3 |
Pittsburgh Steelers |
4 |
61.5 |
1 |
4 |
San Francisco 49ers |
4 |
73.8 |
0 |
5 |
Denver Broncos |
4 |
77.2 |
2 |
6 |
Arizona Cardinals |
3 |
79.7 |
1 |
7 |
Tennessee Titans |
4 |
79.8 |
2 |
8 |
New Orleans Saints |
4 |
83.2 |
3 |
9 |
Minnesota Vikings |
4 |
89.5 |
0 |
10 |
Chicago Bears |
4 |
93.5 |
4 |
11 |
New England Patriots |
4 |
95.2 |
1 |
12 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
4 |
98.8 |
3 |
13 |
New York Jets |
4 |
100.2 |
2 |
14 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
4 |
103 |
3 |
15 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
3 |
106 |
3 |
16 |
Indianapolis Colts |
4 |
106.5 |
4 |
17 |
Green Bay Packers |
4 |
112.2 |
2 |
18 |
Dallas Cowboys |
4 |
115 |
2 |
19 |
New York Giants |
4 |
117.2 |
4 |
20 |
Detroit Lions |
4 |
121.2 |
4 |
21 |
Seattle Seahawks |
4 |
124 |
4 |
22 |
Washington Redskins |
4 |
128 |
1 |
23 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
4 |
128.5 |
5 |
24 |
St. Louis Rams |
4 |
135 |
3 |
25 |
Atlanta Falcons |
3 |
136 |
2 |
26 |
Oakland Raiders |
4 |
146.2 |
4 |
27 |
Buffalo Bills |
4 |
150.5 |
7 |
28 |
San Diego Chargers |
4 |
151 |
6 |
29 |
Houston Texans |
4 |
165 |
8 |
30 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
4 |
171.8 |
2 |
31 |
Cleveland Browns |
4 |
176.8 |
8 |
32 |
Carolina Panthers | 3 |
182.7 |
3 |
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Braylon Edwards… who is starting him on Monday night?
I am starting him, but I don’t have many other options. Avery or Bryant. Im rolling the dice with BE.
Yea, it’s tough to say how well he will do in his first week in a Jets’ uniform, but he should learn the offense quickly and be playing well in no time.
I can’t see consistancy out of Braylon in a new system. He’ll be best used to stretch the field and make more running room for T.Jones. Cotchery will benefit on yardage and TD’s, but probably not in looks. D.Keller probably benefits the most from this move. I think Edwards starts out slow against Miami, pulling in 2 or 3 receptions for about 37 yards.