Ok, so we are almost half-way through the 2009 fantasy football season and it’s that time… the time to reevaluate the 2009 NFL rookie class from a fantasy perspective. The rankings below are "future" value rankings, meaning Ballgame and myself have ranked the rookies in terms of "dynasty" value.
Note: These are Dynasty Rankings looking forward
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Smitty’s Take: Knowshon Moreno might end up being a top 12-15 overall pick heading into 2010 redraft leagues. That’s just redraft… in dynasty leagues, he could go as high as 8-10 come next August. Nothing is for sure in this league, and of course injuries can delay, or destroy, a player’s rise to the elite, but Moreno has all of the tools needed to succeed in the NFL. He reminds me a lot of a young LaDainian Tomlinson and he is in a solid situation over in Denver. I admit, I had my doubts about Kyle Orton and that 5-0 Broncos team before the season began, but they are getting things done, and more importantly, that Broncos coaching staff believes in their young running back. Correll Buckhalter will still be in the picture this year, but let’s face it, he has trouble staying healthy and I don’t see that changing. Plus, even if Buckhalter remains in the picture for the remainder of the 2009 fantasy season, this won’t be an issue come 2010. Moreno will only get better as the 2009 season moves along, so get ready to watch a rising star get in his groove. I have Moreno and Chris Wells almost neck and neck, but I think it’s only smart to roll with the runner who is already reaching that fantasy RB2-type level of play. If Wells gets there before season’s end, you might very well see him vault back up to my number one ranked runner. Below you will see why.
Ballgame’s Take: Knowshon Moreno is already starting and getting starter’s carries. There is no real debate here at this point and I see Moreno becoming a potential stud for years to come. He could be a fantasy RB1 before long and a strong early second-round pick by next year.
X’s Take: Call him 2b if you like… Knowshon Moreno looks like the real deal so far. That said, he has been shown the opportunity more quickly, so it is not really a fair comparison with Chris Wells and LeSean McCoy to this point. I happen to think once this shakes out he is the one who will fall just below the other two. I still don’t trust McDaniels will employ a one back system exclusively after seeing the rotation in New England… of course he didn’t have the talent of a guy like Moreno.
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Smitty’s Take: Chris Wells actually has more fantasy upside than Knowshon Moreno if you ask me… I feel that both runners can be future top 10 fantasy running backs for years to come, so don’t think for a second I’m not projecting top 10 talent out of Moreno moving forward… but Wells has top 5RB abilities, but he is just not getting the touches yet. Because Wells hasn’t had the chance to shine, or prove that he can stay healthy, he sits at our number two spot… but if he gets in there, watch out! Don’t be surprised if Wells immediately vaults to my number one spot once he gets the start in Arizona. Trade for Wells now, especially in dynasty formats. His value will never be lower.
Ballgame’s Take: Chris Wells could really have a nice NFL career, but he just isn’t getting any carries in AZ. Once that happens I think the sky is the limit, but it is a wait and see game and in fantasy football it’s all about what have you done for me lately? His time will come, though, and he could be a top 10RB talent just like Knowshon Moreno. Because Moreno is already at that point, that’s why Moreno is No. 1 and Wells is ranked No. 2.
X’s Take: Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno are close for me, but I give the edge to Beanie at #2. Just see him as more of the type of back who can carry the running load for a team – a 25 carries a game guy. Will that happen with Arizona? Not yet, but I think you will see more balance with this team from Whisenhunt over the next few years.
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Smitty’s Take: LeSean McCoy could be as talented as both Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells, and his situation could be even better. The problem is the waiting… I know this is now three straight runners I’ve anointed top 12-15 overall runners of the future, but that happens with some draft classes. This class is one of the best in years. Back in April, many experts argued that this class was one of the weakest in years, but I disagreed and I still disagree with anyone taking that stance. That said, because Brian Westbrook is healthy right now, and because McCoy will have to wait his turn, McCoy could take a bit longer to get going from an elite fantasy perspective. It’s because of this that he sits at our number three spot. If all three of Moreno, Wells and McCoy were starting, I honestly would have a tough time ranking the three… all three of these guys are just that good. Their offenses would likely decide their order if all were starting. Like with Wells, now is the time to trade for McCoy in dynasty formats. His value will never be this low.
Ballgame’s Take: What’s not to like about LeSean McCoy? Well, there is the presence of Brian Westbrook! But as far as the future goes, McCoy could be a big-time fantasy scorer. He is easily my third-ranked fantasy running back heading into next year, but I could move him up a spot if he finally gets the workload. I am just not sure he will get starter’s carries before next season.
X’s Take: If we are talking dynasty, I’m taking the guy I think will be the most productive over the next 5 years and that is LeSean McCoy in my mind. Unlike Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells, he has a bonafide stud sitting in front of him yet has already worked his way into a 50/50 timeshare with Westy. I know that has some to do with Westy’s health, but to me it still speaks volumes about his talent.
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Smitty’s Take: I think Donald Brown is a good rusher, but he doesn’t have near the talent that the three runners listed ahead of him have. Joseph Addai isn’t a free agent until 2011, so it’s tough ranking the Colts’ rookie ahead of Shonn Greene. That’s my take, but because this is an average set of rankings, Brown sits at No. 4. Again, Brown is a good runner and could play like a solid fantasy RB2 in larger leagues if he was getting starter-type carries, but his situation is just too hard to predict right now, let alone for the future.
Ballgame’s Take: I am not sure what to make of the future values of any of the running backs behind the top three, but I’m a firm believer in drafting runners ahead of receivers. Donald Brown is the next best. I like Shonn Greene, but I’ve seen more of Brown already and I like what I’ve seen.
X’s Take:
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Smitty’s Take: As I said above, Shonn Greene is my fourth-ranked rookie and fourth-ranked running back from this 2009 rookie class. He has the makings of a full-time rusher and he is the future starter of an up-and-coming Jets offensive attack. I can see Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene leading the Jets to a Super Bowl win by 2010 or 2011. Buy-low on Greene in all dynasty leagues while you still can.
Ballgame’s Take: As I said above when speaking on Donald Brown, I haven’t see enough of Shonn Greene to make any crazy predictions. The Jets really like him, given they traded up to draft him on day two of the 2009 NFL Draft, but his future is still unclear. Because his value is dropping, he is a good buy-low player right now in keeper formats.
X’s Take: Another player who has not really gotten his shot yet, I think this time next year he will be their full time RB. The Jets are a good, young team with what looks like a franchise QB in Mark Sanchez – that goes a long way toward the success of RBs at this level. If you don’t believe that, look at McFadden right now.
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Smitty’s Take: The Jets are going to be a force for years and years to come. They have acquired a big-play receiver in Braylon Edwards, they have an elite tight end in Dustin Keller and they will soon have a high-powered rushing attack led by Shonn Greene. Mark Sanchez is going to have every opportunity to produce top 5-10 fantasy quarterback numbers in the coming years.
Ballgame’s Take: I like Mark Sanchez in NY, and with Braylon Edwards now catching passes from him, we might just witness the rise of a future fantasy stud at the quarterback position.
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Smitty’s Take: You have probably noticed that I’ve been extremely optimistic about this 2009 rookie fantasy class so far… well, the optimism ends. I like guys like Michael Crabtree, but players like him have a lot to prove and some of these players left below just don’t have ideal fantasy environments surrounding them. If Crabtree had a top passer under center over in San Fran, I’d be a little more optimistic about his future, specifically his 2010 fantasy season, but for now I’m going to keep my expectations in check. He is seventh on my 2009 rookie rankings list without question, given what rookies are still left to rank, but that doesn’t make him close to any of the top six I have ranked above him.
Ballgame’s Take: The rookie has talent, but he isn’t in the best situation and he sat out much of the 2009 season. He might not produce much until his third fantasy season. Sorry.
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Smitty’s Take: Talented! But will it all translate? What about when Brett Favre leaves? Ranking Percy Harvin is tough, as we’ve seen so many slash-like players bring talent into this league, but we’ve continuously seen them struggle to become consistent fantasy options.
Ballgame’s Take: It could take him a couple of seasons, but I see big things in the coming years.
X’s Take: Still sits in my top 5, just as he did in the preseason. Percy Harvin is exactly the shot in the arm the Vikings needed in the passing game, and the fact that a veteran like Brett Favre does nothing but rave about the youngster should tell you something. He is already a borderline WR3, and that is an impressive thing for a rookie so early.
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Smitty’s Take: Bad team, but Matthew Stafford could turn the Lions around in a year or two. Calvin Johnson is one of the best receivers in the league, so Stafford could have a bright future if he stays healthy and the Lions can improve in other areas each off-season.
Ballgame’s Take: Matthew Stafford is a project, but he has a good weapon in Calvin Johnson. It could be a season or two before he is useful in fantasy leagues, but he might just have the talent.
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Smitty’s Take: Jeremy Maclin is talented, but DeSean Jackson is the number one fantasy wide receiver on that Eagles’ roster. That won’t change, so Maclin’s ceiling is limited.
Ballgame’s Take: Jeremy Maclin is a good athlete, but I’m not too sure he will ever even be a fantasy WR2. He won’t even be the WR1 on his team given they already have a WR1 in DeSean Jackson.
Don’t sleep on Mohamed Massaquoi. He is going to need some consistent quarterback play in order to excel in his second season, but he is a solid sleeper candidate for 2010.
James Davis is another player that could shine in good time. He suffered a torn labrum this season, a season-ending injury, so you will see him get dropped in some larger dynasty leagues. Grab him and stash him away. Cleveland could draft a runner in the 2010 NFL Draft, but if they do not, Davis is a huge sleeper candidate entering the 2010 fantasy football season.
Mike Wallace is really looking like he could be a solid wide receiver in Pittsburgh in the coming years. Make sure he isn’t available on waivers in your larger dynasty leagues.
Johnny Knox is another receiver that shouldn’t be available on waivers in your dynasty leagues. Knox has tremendous speed and could eventually develop into Jay Cutler’s favorite target.
Hakeem Nicks is another receiver to watch heading into 2010.
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Who else would you add in and where?
I would say keep an eye on Kenny Britt and Austin Collie. I don’t think their top ten but their worth having in a dynasty.
I like Britt as well…I think he will be one of the best WR’s to come out of the 2009 class. I also think Stafford will end up the better QB than Sanchez…..Sanchez’s situation is better right now I guess…..but after his hot start he has cooled down considerably. Stafford looked pretty rough in the early goings of the season but has gotten progressively better until his injury. Lions’ offensive line is pretty bad so that does not help him..but they should address that in this upcoming draft some…so th
Where is Bernard Scott? Doesn’t he still have value?
If you have the roster space in deep leagues, I would grab Andre Brown, who never got his chance with the Giants due to injury in training camp. I would also sit on Mike Goodson and Isaac Redman.
The Bernard Scott project is on hold, but his upside is still present, I agree.