On The Rise & On The Decline: Week 7

Published: 10/24/2009 8:05 pm by Smitty in Fantasy Articles

Ok, so Week 7 is already upon us and some of you might be looking to make a change when it comes to your fantasy football rosters. Looking to make a season altering trade? Need to roll the dice? So, let’s just jump right into it!




fantasy football player stock on the decline

Matt Forte | RB CHI

Is it time to consider Matt Forte a bust, or is now the time to strike while his value is low? Even though thousands of you are likely struggling with this issue, I honestly have no doubt that Matt Forte will will bounce-back if he remains healthy — His value will never be lower than it is right now. When is a slump considered a pattern, though? Well, while most are going to be quick to judge Forte after six NFL weeks, I remind all of you that doubt Forte to remember how quickly DeAngelo Williams resurrected his fantasy status last week. Let’s first take a look at Forte’s stats so far for the 2009 fantasy season.

Matt Forte – 2009 NFL Stats Through Week 6
Game
Rushing
Receiving
Week Date Opp Rush Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD
1 Sep 13 @GB 25 55 2.2 0 0 0 0.0 0
2 Sep 20 PIT 13 29 2.2 0 5 33 6.6 0
3 Sep 27 @SEA 21 66 3.1 0 6 40 6.7 0
4 Oct 4 DET 12 121 10.1 1 2 19 9.5 0
6 Oct 18 @ATL 15 23 1.5 0 5 37 7.4 0

At a glance, someone might think that Forte has struggled for six weeks, and of course he has at times, but he actually had his bye in Week 5 and he had back-to-back games with over 100 total yards in Weeks 3 and 4. He has only scored one touchdown on 5 starts, and has just one 100-yard game so far this season, but it can be argued that he has had just three bad performances, one mediocre outing with 100 total yards and one fantastic performance, where he totaled 140 yards and had one score. Is that a pattern? I say no way. Give him a chance to bounce-back! Is it possible that Forte will continue to disappoint in Weeks 7-16? Yes, anything is possible, and he does face the Ravens in Week 15 and the Vikings in Week 16, but I still firmly believe that Forte is far too proven given his rookie season… He is not the next A-Train in Chicago. If healthy, I see him turning back into that top 5 overall talent, as that is where he was drafted back in August. Buy-low if you don’t have him — Hang onto him if you already have him on your roster.




fantasy football player stock on the decline

Greg Jennings | WR GB

Doubting Greg Jennings’ fantasy value heading into Week 7 is a huge mistake. It’s true that he has struggled in a few games this season, but much like Matt Forte, Jennings has had that early bye, so he has actually only played five games so far this season — And Jennings has actually had two 100-yard games already, it’s just that he had two horrible games in Weeks 2 and 4. In Week 2, he didn’t catch one single pass. And in Week 6, Jennings actually caught 6 balls, but he didn’t grab a score and only racked-up 64 yards in the contest. All in all, I think it’s a big-time mistake to consider Jennings a bust this season. Two 100-yard games in five weeks is relatively solid, he just needs to get a touch more consistent and I think that he will. Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings remain two of my biggest "trade for them now" candidates moving forward. Don’t be surprised if Jennings finishes out the season as a top five fantasy wide receiver per start. The same goes for Aaron Rodgers at the quarterback position. Roll that dice if you don’t have either player and start making some calls. If you own either, or both, hang tight, that breakout game is around the corner. We told you to bank on a bounce-back outing out of Randy Moss and Tom Brady last week in our Week 6 Start Bench Advice (and keep banking on them moving forward!)… well, get ready for the Rodgers/Jennings comeback tour. It kicks off in Week 7.






Other Players On-The Rise / Decline

  1. Pierre Thomas – Past Matt Forte and Greg Jennings, Pierre Thomas is the best buy-low candidate entering Week 7. Let everyone doubt his value, just make sure you capitalize on this doubt! Mike Bell could steal touches, but Thomas is the kind of player that can score 2TDs and rush for 80 yards on 12 touches. That Saints offense is that good and Thomas will get his touches.
  2. Greg Olsen - Buy-low, as he could bounce-back and turn into a top 5 fantasy TE moving forward.
  3. Brian Westbrook – There is a chance he just won’t get the carries, but he plays well when he gets the touches. He is worth trading for if the price is right. Take a stab!
  4. LaDainian Tomlinson - His value decreases with every snap. Is he worth trading for if his value is too low? I say yes, but only if you can get him for almost flex-type value. It might be possible, then he’d be worth acquiring.
  5. Ray Rice - His value is on the rise and it might be almost impossible to trade for him now. Expect top 8-10 fantasy RB numbers moving forward if he gets the carries. We warned everyone about this kid — Great work if you have owned him all season long, it was worth the wait wasn’t it? It will be nearly impossible to make a move for the runner at this point… at least it would cost you too much to make it happen.
  6. Tony Romo - Sell now. His value is back on the rise a little bit, but I only see inconsistency moving forward. Try trading laterally into an "upside" passer that could end up being a safer option weeks from now. Need an example? Call me crazy, but Jay Cutler? You might even be able to get more in the deal!
  7. Brandon Marshall – Consider selling high. Only sell if you are able to trade into a better WR, like maybe in a two-for-one type trade, upgrading at WR… just don’t sell low. The goal is to sell-high or stay where you’re at and hope for the best given his troubled past.
  8. Michael Turner – Buy-low, as the runner isn’t playing like a top 4-5 fantasy RB and his owners might be questioning his value. Take advantage.
  9. DeSean Jackson – Buy-low, this guy is a strong fantasy WR2 moving forward, but many see him as a fantasy WR3.

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4 Comments so far

  1. Smitty October 24th, 2009 9:17 pm

    Comments? Players to add?

  2. Z October 25th, 2009 12:04 am

    nice, best Buy-low,Chris Johnson RB Tenn

  3. Smitty October 25th, 2009 12:47 am

    Johnson isn’t undervalued in my leagues, but if he is, absolutely go after him. Nice call.

  4. footballjunkie81 October 25th, 2009 9:07 am

    Buy-low: M.Lynch, A.Boldin and Jacobs.

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