Updated Last: 01/10/2010
It’s never too early to crank out a 2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft. The fantasy football mock draft below is based on a standard scoring format (non-PPR) that has line-up requirements of 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K and 1DST. This is update number two – the first version of this mock draft can be found here.
Things change quick in the world of fantasy football, which is why we will be cranking out updates to this mock draft as the 2010 off-season moves along. Come August, this fantasy football mock draft could look rather strange, but that’s the way this game of fantasy football goes. Enjoy update two to this 2010 Fantasy Football Mock Draft.
Also, don’t forget to check out our always updated 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings and Cheat Sheets.
What can anyone say but "wow" when talking about Chris Johnson’s 2009 fantasy football season? Johnson was absolutely phenomenal in 2009 and he got better with every carry. Will it all translate into 2010, or will Johnson vanish into mediocrity like so many runners do after elite fantasy campaigns? I know most people’s initial reaction to such a question is to laugh, as Johnson looks way too good to vanish into mediocrity, but it happens every single year. Matt Forte was a consensus top 4 overall pick entering 2009 fantasy football drafts, yet he busted. Granted Johnson is in a slightly different situation entering 2010, because he is the clear No. 1 projected overall pick across the board across all fantasy football formats, but the point is that Forte was thought of as INSANELY elite entering his second season, yet he fell off the face of the earth. It happens. So, which path is Johnson on? If he stays healthy, and his upright running style and smaller-type frame does concern us for the long-term, he should have no problem racking up 1,800-2,000 total yards and 14+ total scores in 2010. The upside is there for a lot more, especially if he stays healthy, but those seem like relatively safe numbers and he is the safest player to grab entering the 2010 fantasy football season.
You’re not crazy if you still have Adrian Peterson ranked No. 1 heading into next year. He has the ability to rush for 1,800+ yards during any given season, and 15-20 scores is always within reach for AP. Peterson’s value could depend a lot on what happens with Brett Favre next year. If Favre stays and plays well, Peterson should have no problem rushing for well over 1,500+ yards and is always capable of scoring 16+ times. If Favre stays and struggles, AP could struggle a bit early on in 2010, at least until Sage Rosenfels gets in the line-up and starts producing. Will Favre return in 2010? No one knows the answer to that! Will Favre play well in 2010 if he does return? No one knows the answer to that one either. It’s going to be a wait and see approach when it comes to Favre, but AP owners should know that Rosenfels is a good quarterback and the Vikings should still be airing it out in 2010 even if Favre isn’t under center. All the Favre uncertainty only makes Chris Johnson more appealing at 1.01, though.
Maurice Jones-Drew is a beast and he thrived in his first full season as the Jaguars’ starter. That said, he rushed for over 100 yards just once over his last seven games and he scored just two rushing touchdowns over his last six games. His workload didn’t diminish, as he was getting the carries in those last 6-7 weeks of the 2009 fantasy football season, but his yards-per-carry were down. Will this have the Jaguars looking for a change-of-pace back in this year’s upcoming 2010 NFL Draft? It’s possible, but that wouldn’t necessarily be the worst thing in the world, though, as an injured and exhausted MJD isn’t going to help anyone in 2010. MJD could be better on less touches in 2010. He is a very safe top 3-5 overall pick entering 2010.
Through Week 13, Michael Turner averaged 86.4 rushing yards per game. He also averaged exactly one touchdown per outing. If Turner had kept up that pace through Week 17, he would have cranked out 1,382 rushing yards and 16TDs on the year. That’s top 3-4 overall material right there, if not higher. Count on Turner in 2010 — He still has fresh legs and he should have no issues cranking out 1,300+ rushing yards and 14+ scores in ‘10.
Ray Rice was one of our biggest breakout candidates heading into 2009. Not many Sites were as high on him as we were, as we predicted top 10 running back numbers all off-season in 2009. He showed flashes of brilliance during his 2008 rookie season — We saw the signs and Rice certainly delivered in 2009. In his first season as the Ravens’ starting running back, Rice ran the football 254 times for 1,339 yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. He also pulled in a phenomenal 78 passes for 702 and 1TD. Any questions regarding this 1.05 ranking?
In 2009, Drew Brees threw for 4,388 yars, 34TDs and had 11 INTs. He also ran for two scores. Brees won a lot of fantasy football leagues for a lot of fantasy owners in 2009. Will he continue to dominate in 2010? Why wouldn’t he? The Saints passing attack is maturing each and every week. When Marques Colston faces double coverage, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem step up. This Saints passing attack is the most dynamic in the league. The running game might have been hit and miss in 2009 from a fantasy perspective, but the team has a tremendous stable of fantasy rushers. Between Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell, the Saints rushing attack will deliver once again in 2010. Expect Brees to have a monster 2010 fantasy football season — Expecting 35+ scores isn’t crazy.
Tom Brady didn’t bounce-back from his 2008 ACL injury as quickly as we would have liked in 2009. His first four weeks of the 2009 NFL season were rough on fantasy owners, but he was able to finish with a very respectable 4,398 passing yards, 28 passing TDs (13 INTs) and one rushing score. We see Brady throwing for and 34+TDs in 2010 given that he will now have an entire fantasy season in the rear view mirror since his 2008 ACL injury. Brady had a strong finish to the 2009 fantasy football season, so he won’t likely be anyone’s steal of the draft in 2010, but he could still end up being a great value grab if his ADP starts settling in the second- to early third-round range. Take full advantage of our ADP rankings all off-season long!
Injuries are always a concern, as Frank Gore has a long history of knee injuries and he has missed five games over the past two seasons. That said, he is one of the most explosive runners in the league and a recent report suggests that 49ers coach Mike Singletary might roll with a run-first offense in 2010. This is great news for those looking to invest in Gore in 2010 (or if you own him in dynasty leagues). Gore will only be 27 entering 2010, so he shouldn’t have a problem playing his usual 13-14 games next season and he shouldn’t have a issue totaling 1,400-1,500 total yards and 9-11 scores. Gore, if on the field for 13-14 games, should be a lock to grab 45+ balls. Take him with confidence anywhere in the middle- to late first-round in 2010.
Larry Fitzgerald played all 16 games in 2010. He pulled in 97 passes for 1,092 yards and 13TDs. That’s an extremely impressive season considering Fitz pulled in 40+ yards just once over his last four games. It’s tough not having some concerns about consistency given his yardage totals in those last four games, but he did manage to score in three out of the four outings. It’s safe to say that Fitz has top 12 overall value entering 2010, even if you do have him as your No. 2 ranked fantasy receiver behind Andre Johnson.
The runners right around this 1.09 seem a bit risky, at least compared to the runners listed above. It’s time to go with a consistent receiver when that happens. That’s the smart way to draft these days. Receivers can win leagues these days, so don’t pass up on 1,100/10 from a receiver when the available runners would be lucky to produce those stats.
Ok, we’ve been in Steven Jackson’s corner year after year when so many others have been scared off by injury. Well, believe it or not, we have our concerns about the runner staying healthy in 2010. Jackson was abused in 2009 and he has 1,549 NFL rushes on his resume. If you include receptions, the beast-of-a-runner is sitting at 1,830 total rushes/receptions. That’s a grip of touches for just six NFL seasons. Too many. Don’t get us wrong, Jackson had a solid 2009 season, as he had seven 100-yard games and played 14 contests. He only scored four times, though. Will Jackson still produce like a top 10RB per start in 2010? We say yes, but injury might strike Jackson next season and he could miss more time than usual. What is usual? Well, over the last three seasons, Jackson averaged 3.33 missed games per campaign. It’s tough to predict injury, so much of this is speculation, but we’re projecting 4-5 missed games out of Jackson in 2010. This is the only reason we have him slotted 1.11 and not 1.06.
As said above, when the runners feel risky, go with the lock for 1,100 and 10. If healthy, Reggie Wayne is sure to grab 1,100-1,200 yards and 10-12 or so scores. Those numbers are too solid to pass up on this late in the first-round.
And now for Rounds 2-4…
Probably the toughest player to slot in this entire mock draft is Jamaal Charles. Is he a top 10 overall pick? Is our 2.04 slotting not high enough? Many believe this kid is the next Chris Johnson, as he averaged 164.5 rushing yards and 1TD per game over the Chiefs last four 2009 outings. Those are INSANE stats. So we ask again, is 2.04 too low? Debate this on our Fantasy Football Forums now!
Will Randy Moss drop off in production in 2010? Or, will he be the steal of 2010 fantasy football drafts? It’s tough to tell when a receiver will drop off in production due to age, but Moss will only be 33 next season… a handful of receivers have played elite football at that age, Terrell Owens being just one of those guys. Moss might be counted on more than ever in 2010, as Wes Welker (ACL) will not likely be 100 percent until his 2011 campaign.
Expect Knowshon Moreno to flourish in his second season in the pros and expect DeAngelo Williams to either be the bust of 2010 fantasy football drafts, or the steal of 2010 fantasy football drafts. His ADP will be all over the place come August, as Jonathan Stewart clearly made a statement down the stretch in 2010.
Rashard Mendenhall is a tough player to rank right now and we suspect that his ADP will be all over the map entering August, 2010.
What about Cedric Benson? Slotting him at 2.06 feels strange. It was just 5-6 months ago when everyone was writing this runner off. We admit, we wrote him off as well, but the running back was outstanding in 2009. Benson ran with authority in ‘09 and he once again looks like an NFL starter. It’s tough to use a first-round pick on Benson, but it’s hard to argue against him being ranked inside the top 24 overall. In 2009, Benson ran the football 301 times for 1,251 yards and he scored 6TDs. During his 2010 NFL Playoff Wild Card outing, the runner exploded for 169 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries against the Jets. Benson has certainly earned second-round consideration and respect entering 2010, but it’s hard not to doubt Benson a little bit.
Is Matt Forte a bust candidate, or steal-of-the-draft candidate? Forte still has the talent. We can totally understand if you want to jump ship, it’s arguable for sure, but we don’t believe that Forte is the next Anthony "A-Train" Thomas. We believe the runner will rebound in 2010. Invest, the price is right!
Is Brandon Marshall a bit too high in this mock? Possibly, especially given the fact that he is once again making waves over in Denver, but Marshall could be elsewhere in 2010. He is an eilte talent and capable of catching 100 balls and 12+ scores during any given season. Chicago would be smart to try and pair up Jay Cutler and Marshall once again — It would certainly help Forte find room to run in 2010.
Rounds three and four could change A TON between now and August, 2010. Players like Mike Sims-Walker could climb the ranks, or drop in the ranks… the same goes for players like Anquan Boldin. Will Boldin be in AZ in 2010? What about the 2010 rookies? Is C.J. Spiller ranked too low at 3.09, or too high? Is Spiller even the top ranked rookie runner headed into 2010?
Will Roddy White rebound in 2010? Will LaDainian Tomlinson revive his career for one more season in a different uniform?
If LeSean McCoy gets the touches, he could be an absolute steal in 2010. Is 3.10 not high enough for Jerome Harrison? The guy went nuts down the stretch in 2009, averaging 187 rushing yards and 1.66TDs per game over the final three weeks. He averaged 35.3 carries per game in that three game span. Will he fade into mediocrity, or will he be undervalued in 2010 drafts and win leagues for those who invest? Is 3.10 too low? Too high? Debate this topic on our Fantasy Football Forums!
Do we have Austin Miles too low? Too high? He was a top 2-4 fantasy wide receiver in most every scoring formats in 2009. Hard to believe? Not if you owned him!
Shonn Greene could be ranked a bit high here at 4.12, but with a strong playoff finish, he could climb the ranks heading into August. Could T-Jones deliver again in 2010 at the age of 32? It’s highly unlikely, although we doubted him heading into this season. Still, 32-age rushers are slim to none in terms of playing at an elite fantasy level. Prove us wrong, Jones! We dare you! The Shonn Greene show should kick off in early 2010. Enjoy the show!
Will Joseph Addai be starting in Indy come September, or will Donald Brown take over in his second season in the NFL?
Will Greg Jennings rebound in 2010? We think so.
Where is Ronnie Brown you ask? Well, the runner’s Lisfranc Fracture could be career altering, so honestly, we just couldn’t slot him inside the top four rounds of this mock draft… That hurts to say, as most of you know that not many fantasy sites out there were higher on Ronnie Brown than we were heading into 2009… the reality is that the Lisfranc injury is a nasty one and Brown will be 28 entering next year. Twenty-eight isn’t the dreaded age of decline, but it is certainly an age that makes it tough to recover from a Lisfranc Fracture injury. We wish Brown all the luck in the world, but fantasy football is all about observing and reacting… and it’s time to react on Brown (avoid him in 2010).
It’s entirely possible that players like Sidney Rice, Ronnie Brown, Brett Favre, Thomas Jones, Brandon Jacobs, Steve Slaton, Chad Ochocinco, Braylon Edwards, Donald Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Brent Celek, Philip Rivers and others could work their way into the top 40 overall come August, 2010. It’s quite early to be sure on any of that, and some might argue that T-Jones still has a year left. Those types of things are very arguable at this stage of the 2010 fantasy football off-season — And we welcome player debating on our fantasy football forums, so get some!
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Comments? Predictions? Who is your sleeper in this bunch and who is your bust candidate?
smitty, this is a great mock draft! you even sprinkiled in some rookies in there…it will be interesting to see what nfl team drafts them.
where is mark ingram? are you not high in him? it’s obvious here too that you are high on sims walker…over austing and desean jackson?
anyone who has watched jamaal charles highlights (go to youtube) knows this kid is for real. his patience and speed make him CJ2. it appears from this mock you guys are sold too!
all who watched shonn greene last night know what he can do. thomas jones will be 32, so the writing is on the wall. throw in their o line, and i think you could argue he could be higher here.
i think you have addai slated right, as i see him losing his job to d brown. brown is too explosive and addai lacks big play ability.
d williams and stewart are very hard to rank. will one get traded? both of these guys have top 5 potential. i think they are that good
overall, great mock. thanks!!!
Thanks, ctbarbee. Mark Ingram will turn pro after one more year.
As for Austin, I actually changed his slotting last min, as I too felt he was too low. He is in the third and Sims-Walker is now in the fourth. I think Austin is very deserving of a 3rd-round ranking.
Great comments as always, ctbarbee.
Any other observations or predictions?
I really liked Sims-Walker in the games he played in and was healthy for. I also had MJD. Both were big disappointments near the end of the season. I wouldn’t say this is the end-all be-all of MJD, but for Sims-Walker he will probably be a WR3 at best if the Jags still roll with Garrard next year.
I have the opportunity to keep MSW for a 10th, and I’m probably going to opt for Crabtree (who i can get in the 12th) simply for the QB/Team.
I think Jennings is also too high. I’ve had the guy 2 years now, and he really is boom or bust every game. Also, once the Pack is within 20 yards of the end zone, GJ is either on the sidelines or strictly out there as a decoy. Rodgers, if he throws to him, it is because he forces passes there, not because GJ runs a route that gets him open. Add in the fact that Driver solidified the “Boldin”/”Welker” role, I just can’t consider GJ in a PPR league anymore.
I like the rest of the rankings; however, I would put rice before turner. As a Falcons fan, it was clear to me that we ran turner down way too much the season before last. Rice is younger and more explosive. He’s a solid RB with the pass catching and speed skills of Reggie Bush.
Oh and you have Colston as a QB. ha
fokelift, good comments. Sims-Walker will be a boom or bust pick next year. I like him, but we’ve seen WRs rise and fall in one season before. And he didn’t finish great, so the argument can be made against him, no doubt. I’m banking on him, though.
Thanks about Colston. Fixed.
Smitty,
Question…
I am in a keeper league where we can keep 2 players up to 3 years. I have one year left of Brees, but I just drafted Charles and Ray Rice this year. Someone offered me a second round pick for the one year of Brees. So…should I take the trade and go all in on Charles with the upside of 2 more years? Or do I keep Brees and Rice?
Thanks.
I say 2.09 is too high for Forte…”Forte still has the talent.” That’s just it, I don’t think he has the talent. He had a solid rookie year but only Avg’d 3.9 yards a carry. His sophmore year he ave’d 3.6 a pop. I see Chicago rolling RBBC with that kid from UCLA Khalil Bell, the offense flowed a lot better when Bell was in the game.
Waterdog, I keep Brees and Rice and deal Charles. I just don’t pass up the chance of having two possible top 5-6 fantasy players. You should be able to get a ton for Charles right now anyway, and while I like him, you’re in a situation where you can afford to sell him high and be wrong because you won’t really be hurt by selling… cause you can’t use him. Sell high.
FootballJunkie81, you may be right, but I still believe in him. That doesn’t mean that CHI won’t give him room to run. That’s the bigger question for me… will he have room to run? CHI needs to make some changes. Hopefully they go after Brandon Marshall this off-season and united Cutler and Marshall once again.
Love the mock so far. Thanks for getting us all thinking for next year.
I am in a 10 team league with 3 dynasty/keepers each year.
I see Charles, Benson, Mendenhall and Beanie as solid for next year where you have them, but have some concerns about how high you have these players:
(1) Matt Forte – agree with folks already (is his tank almost empty so young?)
(2) Frank Gore – can he pull it together in 2010, or is 1.08 too high?
(3) Marion Barber – with what Jones is doing in the playoffs, Barber may be struggling to get the number of carries in 2010 to draft him at 4.06.
(4) Jerome Harrison – will he have to split carries with the rookie Davis or will this be his job to lose?
(5) Darren McFadden – another Raiders 1st round bust? what have you done for me lately? With 3 running backs with talent on the Raiders, I don’t think he will ever be a 1,000 yard back…
BTW – Can anyone tell me how 2 running backs on the same team can get over 1200 total yards each and a combined 20 touchdowns? Carolina confuses the hell out of me..
Looking forward to the rest of the mock…
[...] mock draft for the 2010 fantasy football season with Chris Johnson as the No. 1 overall pick. Prepare to see a lot of that this offseason. [Fantasy Football [...]
Regarding forte, i tend to agree with most of the post in that he may not be all that great. i am one of those too that doesn’t think he’s great. however, he still totaled over 1400 yards i believe and will get the touches. i think he’s a great RB3 in round 3 given his potential number of touches. you can be good in football but pretty damn good in fantasy with the OPPORTUNTIES. if he’s there in the 3rd i think you jump on him as he can deliver high end WR1 type numbers (1200-1400 yards, 8 TDs). Remember too that he had a ton of yards in college and if the Bears fix that O line he could do fine.
Smitty has been ranting and raving about Beanie Wells and I’m finally starting to believe him. He runs hard and could become a TD machine. If Hightower gets a)traded b) loses his job 3) gets hurt….. Beanie is a sure fire top 10 back. Once again, great call Smitty!
I think matt forte’s draft projection is WAY to high.
I’m liking the doubts about Forte, because this will make investing in him that much easier in 2010. If everyone doubts him, he will fall a ton ADP wise and those of us that believe (as small a group as we are
) will be able to invest with low-risk. He is a risk, I can’t argue that, but soon he becomes bargain…
I am glad the trend is to place CJ that high. I have him and Ray Rice as two of my three keepers for next year. I am not sure on the third but I have Brady, Schaub, Moss, Miles Austin, and Moreno as options.
smitty, appreciate your site during this dark period for fantasy football. like your mock, but do not diss Justin Forsett this year. 2010’s Ray Rice, book it/
The Dude: I like Forsett a lot as well. For now, he isn’t inside my top four rounds, but anything can happen and things change. You certainly wouldn’t have to take him that high if your draft was today, make sure you don’t reach. He is talented, though. I do agree.
Thanks for doing such good work during, as the dude said, the “dark days” of ff.
I agree that Charles is the hardest to rank. On the one hand, you’ve got his great secondhand finish, kind of like LJ’s for the chiefs several years back, who then went on to have a great next season. Obviously they are different types of backs and I read how Charles admitted to being hurt “pretty much all over” at seasons end. No doubt, especially returning kicks too. So I would be surprised if Pioli doesn’t bring in another, bigger back to take some of the load, possibly goal-line work. The Chiefs do have the number one run schedule for next year based on this years defensive stats projected to next years schedule, which is nice. Add in Weis and the offense should take a step forward in general. Yet theres a part of me that sees a parallel between Slaton going into 09 and Charles into this year. Confounding, for sure.
Smitty, i remember you were bullish about P. Manning going into last season, and rightfully so. I am surprised you have him ranked lower than Brady this year, considering the weapons each has to work with and Mannings domefield advantage. Also, according to my passing yardage rankings, the Colts go from 8th in 09 to 15th next year, while the Pats go from 27th to 30th. Mostly that results from their in-division games, where the Bills and Jets were the top 2 pass D’s from last season.
Looking at early SOS for next year, I am liking the value of QBs and WRs from the AFC West and NFC East, which both transition from bottom half passing SOS to top half, according to numbers i put together. Philip Rivers is my sleeper pick right now, I would rank him the 3rd Qb behind Brees and PManning.
Brady over Manning… Manning over Brady, I think it’s hard to argue that it isn’t close. Great points, though, you have a good grasp on this stuff early on. It sure will be interesting to see player values bounce all over the place here soon..
smitty, who would you keep as of now? mendenhall or j charles?
others want to chime in?
ctbarbee, that’s a tough one. Honestly, I almost can’t even decide. If forced to pick one, I’d say Charles — For now. That could change, that’s how close this is, but I go with Charles for two reasons.
First of all, Charles might have more trade value and I’m always looking to turn one thing into another, especially when we’re talking about two runners that I have serious questions about heading into the future. Questions don’t always mean I don’t believe in them, but I just think that Charles could get more via trade and that would be one huge bonus in rolling with him over Mendy.
The second reason I roll with Charles is that he ended the season on fire, while Mendy finished out the last eight games of the 2009 season with just one 100-yard game. In fact, in his last three games, Mendy ran for just 53, 38, 36 and 94. He did score three TDs in that time frame, but he averaged 3.4 yards per carry through those four games.
I like Mendy, don’t get me wrong, it’s a tough choice, and I’m not even saying I wouldn’t trade Charles away, but that’s my answer for now.
Hope that helps.
Tomlinson, Barber and McFadden do not belong on this list. They are all injury-prone, have underperformed for the entire 2009 season and there is no reason for them to show any improvement. Reggie Bush is too high for my likings as well.
Get some elite TEs in there and push those bum RBs off the top 40. Also, I would rank Aaron Rodgers a bit higher along with moving Brees down a round.
Get Brady out of there as well–usually QBs are very close in tiers and there is almost no difference in the top five or so guys–draft any of ‘em in the 4th, not 1st round. I don’t see much difference between Brees and Schaub to be honest.
ThomasMagnumPI: Brady’s ranking is arguable, but you might be right about LT2. We shall see if he lands a productive gig, we kind of made some predictions in that with our slotting above, but each day that goes by seems to point to LT2 looking at sharing a RBBC at best.
That could change – Shocking moves and shuffles happen all the time and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see us all scrambling on the forums to discuss LT2’s new landing spot when that goes down.
You make good points, all things to consider, though. Nice job.
My above comments were just a knee-jerk reaction but I do feel strongly about LT2–IMO what more can you ask for from a declining running back than a RBBC as an early-down back that is going to get some TDs by default. Say he does land in a place like Houston where he is paired with Slaton. I don’t see his numbers improving over 2009 and his pure name recognition might just be too much, no matter where you get him, within reason. I just don’t see the upside. That all being said, he was the 23rd overall back in my league (we get points for return yardage) and I think his value would be more in the 8th round range.
Smitty–you do a great job though overall IMO and it’s easy to take shots at your picks at the top guys for next year–not so ez to pick ‘em. Keep up the good work.
ThomasMagnumPI: Yep. And thanks. It’s easy to pick apart your own rankings one day after you made them. Things change so quickly and so many things have to be assumed at this point in the off-season.
Again, if I was doing the mock today, LT2 would drop out, as his value has fallen with each day that has passed. Again, though, I wouldn’t be shocked if he is one of the most talked about players on the forum soon with some crazy landing spot news breaking.
It will be interesting.
Smitty: What is your take on L. McCoy now that Westbrook has been released?
Iterr61: I got ya covered right here when it comes to LeSean McCoy.
Smitty: Thanks for the reply. I am new to the site and will be a regular – great information. I am in a keeper league and have R Grant, L, McCoy and J Forsett as my running backs for 2010. It looks like I could have a number one with both McCoy and Forsett to pair with Grant. I am also considering trading Grant for Charles.
lterr61: Good luck getting Charles for Grant. If you can, DO IT! You might have to give up more. Keep us posted on that one and run your trade offers/deals by all of us on the Forums! Glad to have ya here at FFX, my friend!
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