Update: 1.0 | 2.0
With the 2010 fantasy football off-season officially underway here at Fantasy Football Xtreme, it’s time to dive right into the topic of 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper Running backs. Ok, let me first start off by defining the term sleeper. Everyone defines the term “sleeper” differently, and some suggest that a first-round talent like Michael Turner cannot be a sleeper. Well, we beg to differ and we define the term like this. A fantasy football sleeper is a player that others are sleeping on – plain and simple. It can be a first-round pick, or a eighth-round pick. It doesn’t matter. Below you will find our early 2010 Fantasy Football Sleeper candidates at the running back position and I have organized the below sleepers into different tiers: Elite Sleepers, Middle-Round Sleepers and Deep Sleepers. As you will see, fantasy football sleepers can be found inside any round or ranking tier. Enjoy.
Again, as said above, even fantasy football studs can play the role of a sleeper candidate from time to time. I’ll admit, when someone mentions the phrase fantasy football sleeper, I tend to think of players like Justin Forestt before I think of first-round talents, but it’s extremely important to acknowledge that even first-round studs can be undervalued on occasion.
So what makes Michael Turner a 2010 fantasy football sleeper? Well, for starters, Turner has top 1-3 overall fantasy upside in non-PPR formats, yet in early 2010 fantasy football mock drafts, he is being valued in the middle-to-late first-round. And in PPR-formats, Turner is actually falling into the second-round in early 2010 fantasy mock drafts. Turner is a beast capable of 15+ rushing touchdowns during any given season, and he still has relatively fresh legs even though he is entering the 2010 NFL season at the age of 28. Turner has started just two seasons in the pros, and despite having a 377-carry season back in 2008, he has just 783 NFL carries to his name. To put that small figure into perspective, Thomas Jones has 2,253 NFL carries on his resume and didn’t drop off in talent until the tail end of this most recent 2009 NFL campaign. That’s 10 NFL seasons of strong play, five of which were 1,000-yard rushing seasons. With just two starting seasons under Turner’s belt, dynasty owners should be exploiting the stud’s undervalued fantasy stock all off-season long — If it even continues.
As for redraft leaguers, sure, in some leagues Turner will get drafted where he deserves to be drafted (inside the top 5 overall), but I have a feeling that undervaluing Turner in 2010 will be a reoccurring theme, in all leagues and formats. Take advantage of this, as I have Turner projected to rush for over 1,300 yards and 14-16 rushing scores in 2010.
Straight from Smitty via our Fantasy Football Player Spotlights feature:
The Chicago Bears have just hired Mike Martz as the team’s new offensive coordinator. This move is HUGE for Matt Forte owners, as an inconsistent passing attack was a big reason why Forte failed fantasy owners in 2009. Forte was a top 3-4 overall pick in all leagues and formats last August and clearly the Bears rusher busted. He did suffer an early-season knee injury, and that injury lingered for much of the 2009 NFL season, but the biggest contributing factor to Forte’s disappointing sophomore fantasy season was the team’s inability to provide Forte with room to run. Well, all that is about to change. Forte was already one of our biggest bounce-back candidates heading into 2010, but this signing now makes us even more confident in the runner heading into his third NFL season. One of Forte’s biggest strengths is his ability to be a receiver and Martz is famous for turning getting his running backs heavily involved in the passing game. Forte is one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, so this marriage between Martz and Forte is a perfect fit. In two seasons in the NFL, Forte has averaged over 58 receptions per season. Forte might just be on the verge of having his best receiving season yet. Buy-low in dynasty leagues and hopefully the runner remains undervalued heading into 2010 August yearly drafts. So what kind of numbers do I project for Matt Forte entering 2010? Well, it’s a bit early to be sure, but I’d venture to say 1,050 rushing, 600 receiving, 12 total scores with 60-65 receptions sounds about right. Mark it down!
DeAngelo Williams will either be extremely overvalued valued heading into August, 2010, or he will be extremely undervalued. The complicated part about that Carolina running back situation heading into 2010 is that both Williams and Jonathan Stewart have top 5-10 fantasy running back upside if given starter carries. The problem is, which runner will get starter carries in 2010? Will it be a 50/50 split?
While it’s safe to say that this situation is cloudy, and full of risk, my guess is that one of these runners will be a steal heading into 2010 fantasy football drafts, while the other turns into a high-risk/high-reward type grab. So which of the two will be a draft day steal? Again, a lot can change between now and August, but my guess is that Williams becomes the draft day steal, while Jonathan Stewart becomes the risky 2010 investment.
Don’t get me wrong, Jonathan Stewart looked fantastic in the final five weeks of the fantasy football season, scoring five total touchdowns and rushing for 100 yards or more in four of those five outings. He actually ran for 206 yards in one of those outings. Jonathan Stewart was a beast to close out the 2009 fantasy football season.
So why is Jonathan Stewart the less attractive fantasy football investment heading into 2010? Well, it all comes down to draft value and I firmly believe that whenever healthy, Williams will get at least 50-60% of the carries in Carolina in 2010. Stewart is going to have his big games next season, and he will likely serve as a very strong flex option all season, but Williams still has top 5RB talent and he will likely have the carry-advantage whenever healthy. So given that Stewart’s value is on the rise and Williams’ value is on the decline, it looks like 2010 will be the season to buy-low on Williams. Again, I expect Stewart to produce top 5-10 fantasy running back numbers when starting, but I have Williams pegged for at least a 13-14 game fantasy season, which means Williams might rush for 1,200+ and 9-11 scores. Buy-low on Williams in 2010, he might just give you top 5-10 fantasy running back numbers at the cost of a late second- or third-round pick. If possible, owning both runners is the ultimate option in 2010, but that could be tough if Stewart continues to be overvalued. Monitor Stewart’s ADP all off-season long and react accordingly.
Not many fantasy sites out there were higher on Shonn Greene than we were last season, and while it took a bit longer than expected for Greene to shine, he certainly showed flashes of brilliance down the stretch in 2009.
The Jets’ rookie rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries as the Jets upset the No. 2 seeded Chargers during the 2009 Divisional Round game, and the week before that, Greene led the Jets with 21 carries for 135 yards and a touchdown during a Wild Card round win against the Bengals. Greene is the future of that Jets’ rushing attack and there is a 50/50 chance that Thomas Jones doesn’t even return to a Jets’ uniform in 2010.
Greene still needs to work on his receiving game, something that could hold him back a bit in PPR formats, but the future is bright for Greene owners. The runner has elite size, power and breakaway ability. More importantly, he has the confidence of the coaching staff. He is also playing for a team on the rise. The Jets are young, but they will improve each season and they will build their 2010 attack around their sophomore running back.
I can see Shonn Greene cranking out 1,200 rushing yards and 8-10 scores in 2010. It’s entirely possible that he catches less than 15 or so passes in his second season, but we won’t write him off completely in the receiving department — Not yet. He is young and has a lot to prove!
Regardless of talent levels or sleeper tiers, LeSean McCoy is one of my biggest overall sleeper candidates heading into 2010. I’d be lying if I said that there wasn’t some risk attached to McCoy’s name heading next season, as there is.
The Eagles’ coaching staff refused to use the running back down the stretch in 2009 and they had every reason to feed him the rock. This uncertainty is a good thing for McCoy believers, though, as McCoy is looking like a huge early sleeper candidate heading into 2010. A strong preseason could certainly change McCoy’s value heading into August drafts, but for now it’s safe to say that McCoy will likely be extremely undervalued heading into ‘10. Extremely! His upside far outweighs any risk involved, but again, there is risk given how that Eagles’ coaching staff has used the running back thus far in his short NFL career.
So what kind of numbers could McCoy actually crank out? Honestly, I can see McCoy dropping top 5-10 fantasy running back numbers if given the carries, but again, will he get the touches? Again, all the uncertainty surrounding the Eagles’ 2010 rushing situation will have McCoy being one of this upcoming season’s most attractive low-risk/high-reward type players.
Arian Foster has monster 2010 fantasy football upside given his current off-season value. Now, his value could change heading into August, especially if Houston doesn’t draft a top rookie running back in April’s 2010 NFL Draft. For now, though, it’s safe to say that Foster is one of the biggest sleeper running backs heading into 2010.
Foster has a big frame at 6-1, 215. He also has good power and speed. Does he have the confidence of the coaching staff, though? At first glance we’d say yes, as Foster got his shot in the final two games of the 2010 NFL season. In Week 16 against the Dolphins, Foster threw down 19 carries for 97 yards (5.1) and 1TD. In Week 17 against New England, Foster ran the football 20 times for 119 yards (6.0) and 2TDs (he also caught 3 passes for 26 yards).
So back to the big question: Does Arian Foster have the confidence of the Houston coaching staff? While it’s always important to speculate and predict, we won’t know for sure until after the 2010 NFL Draft. If the Texans draft a runner, clearly Foster could see competition for the starting gig in 2010, but it doesn’t sound like Steve Slaton will be much of a threat — At least right away. Any and all of that can change, but for now it looks like it’s Foster’s job to lose.
Consider Arian a fine flex option at this point in the off-season and go after him in all dynasty leagues if he is being undervalued. Even though there is still a chance that Houston does bring in, or draft, competition for Foster in 2010, now is the time to try and acquire Foster via trade in all dynasty/keeper formats. As for all you redraft leaguers out there, it will be a wait and see game when it comes to Foster’s 2010 ADP.
Justin Forsett is a tremendous scatback, but is he capable of being a full-time starter in this league? Some say no, but many say yes. On our FFX Forums, some of you Fantasy Football Xtreme users out there think this kid is the next Jamaal Charles. While I think that’s a bit of a reach — For now — Forsett is being extremely undervalued heading into 2010.
Forsett’s 2010 fantasy upside has everything to do with how the Seahawks plan to use him moving forward. After averaging 5.4 YPC and pulling in 41 receptions last season, one would think that Seattle would be crazy not to give this kid a shot as the team’s starter — but stranger things have happened.
In fact, a recent rumor is floating around news wires right now suggesting that Saints RB Reggie Bush could end up in Seattle in 2010 if cut by the Saints — This would have Bush playing for his former USC coach Pete Carroll. This could just be a rumor, and certainly there is a strong chance that Bush won’t even be cut by the Saints this off-season (especially if he has a strong Super Bowl performance this weekend). The point is, there is no certainty with this situation, and Seattle could certainly draft a top rookie running back in this year’s 2010 NFL Draft.
All that said, Forsett’s is a pegged as a breakout candidate in 2010. If he remains undervalued, he should be grabbed in the middle rounds of all 2010 fantasy football drafts. He will make a fine flex if you can draft him at that value. If his average draft position (ADP) starts to climb into RB2-type value (highly unlikely at this point), our advice is to let someone else take the risk in 2010. It’s a bit early to speculate too much on this situation, as the NFL Draft is still to come in April, but it’s important to speculate on these situations, especially for dynasty purposes.
To debate this topic in more detail, be sure to jump on our Fantasy Football Forums.
Ahmad Bradshaw, Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, Darren Sproles
Out of all of the above players, Ahmad Bradshaw and Darren Sproles could have the most upside. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice both have tremendous upside, but which one will be the beneficiary of what looks like the inevitable decline of Marion Barber?
Back to Bradshaw and Sproles, both runners could be huge in 2010, or both teams could decide to draft a rookie like Jahvid Best or Jonathan Dwyer. Only time will tell… and until then, sleepers they remain!
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Comments? Other players you’d like to throw into the mix? There are certainly room for more names, I just touched on a few!
My super deep sleeper…Jalen Parmalee BALT RB.
McGahee is most likely gone and Parmalee could wind up as Rice’s backup and get touches on a run-heavy offense.
What about McGahee? If he gets cut and goes to a starting role he could be a decent 2RB or flex. Lions maybe?
All good additions to throw out there so far… Any comments about the analysis above? Agree? Disagree? Keep throwing out new names, too, though. This is a good topic this time a year!
I really thought Felix would have made the “Deep Sleeper” list with Forsett and Foster. Many people think Choice is the next Dallas RB of the future but I’m still betting on Mr. Jones. Call it a gut feeling but he needs to stay healthy for that to happen. Here’s hoping that the injuries are behind him!
Agreed on Smitty’s RB sleeper comments on Felix Jones, Arian Foster, and especially LeSean McCoy.
Personally, I think Westbrook absolutely done!
I like Forsett as a deep sleeper. The new OC in Seattle recently stated that he will use the zone-blocking scheme he learned under Shanahan and noted how many late-round rbs had been successful in the scheme. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team draft that way considering all the other needs they have. And how much can you project for a late round rookie? Personally I don’t see Bush coming to Seattle, he will want a boatload more money then they’re paying Forsett and may not have as much upside with those knee problems. I could see LT replacing Julius Jones (yawn). Seattle’s not going to be an effective short-yardage team until they get better up front, and they’re not getting bigger scheme-wise, so a guy who can attack the edges like Forsett could flourish if he proves durable enough.
I’d add Mendenhall, Benson, and Moreno to the elite sleeper level if you believe they will stay healthy: they’ll get the bulk of the work against favorable schedules. I’d put Wells about a round behind those guys. If I really felt like rummaging I’d try to identify (if possible) who the Raiders and Bucs will feature, as they have underrated o-lines (in my opinion) and favorable schedules.
Your comments about McCoy ring true. The skeptics (count me in) will drive down the adp. Maybe what I’m really skeptical of is that huge underachieving o-line. Like Jason Garrett, Andy Reid has a beefy line but wants to air it out instead of setting a physical tone. If they get it together McCoy could shine, even against a really tough run schedule.
Meisterburger, you could be right about Felix.
aznflyer14, yea, I like Foster and McCoy a lot given their values. It’s all about trade/draft values and the risk is real acceptable for two. Felix too, but I like the upsides of Foster and McCoy more, though.
walt34, Forsett will be boom or bust given what SEA does with their RB crew. He is very talented, though. I’m not super high on Benson next year, but I wasn’t last year either, so clearly he has the ability to prove me wrong.
Great points everyone. Keep it coming!
Fred Jackson–RB, Buffalo. Lynch seems to have fallen out of favor, at least, and could quite possibly be traded this offseason. Either way, I like Jackson as a middle-round “sleeper” and Lynch as a bounce-back candidate that can be had on the cheap if he lands in the right spot–like San Diego or Houston.
I would take Adrian Foster off the list. Coach Kubiac seems intent on acquiring Slaton’s early-down replacement this offseason, either via trade, free-agency, or the draft and Foster hasn’t done much to impress me thus far. That all being said, a talented back who ends up in Houston could be a HUGE score for any fantasy squad even if Foster isn’t the guy when the dust settles.
I don’t know if these guys would qualify as sleepers but I am going to throw them out there in no particular order:
Chris Wells
Leon Washington
Jerome Harrison
I’m all about Justin Forsett. I was high on him as a rookie when other people in my league didn’t even know who he was. It obviously depends on who they draft or bring in via FA, but if this guy get’s a shot, look out. If he’s given the starting job I can see a top-10 RB season. I might be crazy, but I know that Julius Jones isn’t on the field anymore with this kid on the roster (if the new regime know’s how to win football games). If you want a really deep sleeper I think Bernard Scott is worth a late round-flier. Cinci has shown they can’t stretch the field anymore with the Carson-Ochocinco hook-up. CedBen had a great 2009 season, but needed a lot of carries to do it. Obviously, Scott needs an injury to fully reach his potential as a fantasy football RB, but if he get’s his shot, he has the talent of a top-15 RB. I think Forsett’s ADP will climb as we approach the season (assuming Seattle doesn’t go RB in the first round), but Scott is a guy you can draft in the last couple of rounds and save yourself the race to the waiver wire. I like Forsett as my sleeper, Scott as my DEEP sleeper, and Shonn Greene as the guy I would draft as an RB-2 no matter if Thomas Jones is there or not. Just too talented.
With LaDainian Tomlinson’s release, where does everyone rank Darren Sproles. Read our most recent Player Spotlight on Darren Sproles HERE!
Sproles–what a pocket rocket; one with so much upside that it pains me to see him so underutilized in San Diego’s potent offense. His 2010 potential is highly, highly, dependent on who the Chargers get to fill the short-yardage/early-down void left by LT2’s departure (albeit a season too late IMO).
Sproles has always been a good value pick for me, as I play in return-yardage PPR leagues where he gets a super-healthy boost but I just don’t see him gaining a huge amount of value over his 2009 numbers given the attitude of the Chargers’ powers-that-be–namely that he is maxed out as a third down back and explosive return man.
All that being said, maybe he will become more of a feature-type back in effect if not name, similar to how he was deployed early in 2009 when he was the one getting the goal-line carries over LT2. This is unlikely to happen but if the early-down back that San Diego adds is either ineffective or becomes injured then Sproles could very well become a viable RB2 throughout 2010, especially in PPR leagues.
Thanks Smitty!!! I dealt Miles Austin to get Forte, now he may not even be the starter!!!! You still high on him now? Apparently, Da Bears aren’t!!
Well, you never asked me if I would trade Austin for Forte
. I still like Forte a lot, but remember, he is a sleeper and should be traded like one and drafted like one. Miles Austin is a stud WR and not a sleeper at all. That doesn’t mean this wont work out for you, as I think Forte could thrive in an Martz system (READ HERE), but definitely get on our forums and throw your potential offers out on the and get some fantasy takes before you pull the trigger. I like Forte still, so hang tight, but that doesn’t mean you couldn’t have got more given the market values for both. Liking a guy like Forte is one thing, but that doesn’t mean everyone else values him like that, and that spells “sleeper” and opportunity for those looking to buy low. Buying low is key though. Again, hang tight with Forte, though, It could work out. Things did get a little more complicated with the Chester Taylor signing, something we couldn’t have predicted, but again READ HERE for commentary after that signing.
Well, I was only “half” kidding, I don’t go by your comments alone, mostly my own insight/knowledge, although I do like reading your stuff! I have Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson also in my full keeper dynasty league, so I could take a shot and trade Austin for a RB. I still like Forte too, I actually traded for Chester Taylor right after the signing, then swung him for a first round rookie pick in 2011. Taylor is 31 so I really don’t think he has too much left. Our league allows for trading of “future” rookie picks, 1 year in the future only. I am hoping to gather as many 2011 1st rounders to try to get Mark Ingram in 2011!!
alnation1: Nice job with the Chester moves. Yea, not envisioning him as more than a one year contributor. He has relatively fresh legs given his time in the league, but 32 is 32 and Chester will be 32 entering his second season with the Bears. This year he will enter at 31, as you said, and this is the last year I will expect much. Forte is still very young and I have faith.
Mark Ingram will be good. I want as many 2011 picks as I can get my hands on as well.
I think Pierre Thomas has quite a bit of upside. I don’t know if I’d call him a sleeper, but unless NO drafts another RB, their RBBC will have one less mouth to feed this season. Could be a break out season for Frenchy after a somewhat disappointing one last year.
I wonder if Brandon Jacobs will have a comeback season in 2010 too. He let many Fantasy teams down last year (including me) so I think he could actually be quite undervalued as many people pass over him. This is a monster back who you would think could rack up some TDs…
And a deep, deep, deep sleeper – Peyton Hillis. Two seasons ago he looked really good filling in at RB in DEN. He was kind of the forgotten man last year but now that he’s in CLE he could be a goal line type fullback.
Nice group, Foolio. I too hope Brandon Jacobs bounces back given his draft value.
Yeah, I’m not sure if I’m ready to take a chance on Jacobs again or not. If he has another poor season I’ll be kicking myself. Plus Bradshaw looked pretty good last year and he wasn’t even healthy.
Foolio: The thing is, he is so cheap this year, or should be, there won’t be much risk. Last year there was a significant investment, this year that is not likely the case. That makes it low-risk/high-reward. If his value changes, then yea, might not be a great move this year.
Oh and FYI to those reading this today, this list could change a bit… we will write an update to it soon. Some of the names will remain, but things change quickly in this league. They already have. Updates to this topic to come!
Update 2.0 is here! Check it out!
[...] Football Sleeper Running backs. At the end of this article I will touch on the list of runners in Update 1.0, as so much has already changed this off-season. As for this update, and as always, we here at [...]