One of the most popular topics during every fantasy football off-season is the topic of Fantasy Football Sleeper Running Backs. Finding that third- or fourth-round steal at the running back position can often lead you to that fantasy football championship. Last season we predicted the rise of Ray Rice, who wasn’t even a third-round grab around this same time last off-season. How did that turn out? Well, this year we have a list of candidates that could be the Ray Rice of 2010. Enjoy.
LeSean McCoy didn’t have the most productive rookie campaign, and I was a bit shocked that the Eagles didn’t use the rookie more often. The runner ran the ball just 155 times for 637 yards (4.1) and scored just 4TDs. He did pull in a solid 40 receptions for 308 yards, but overall, McCoy had a disappointing season last year. Use this to your advantage, as many will doubt him entering 2010. The Eagles’ coaching staff was to blame, though, and while they could still elect to misuse McCoy in 2010, my guess is that McCoy will finally be used much like Brian Westbrook was used during his elite NFL seasons in 2003-2008. I wouldn’t be shocked one single bit if McCoy finished as a top 5-7 fantasy football running back when all is said and done in 2010. He is by far my top sleeper runner heading into 2010. I said the same thing about Ray Rice last off-season and I have a very similar gut feeling about LeSean McCoy this upcoming season. The best news? As of this moment here in the middle of June (2010), McCoy can be had in the late third-round (if not early fourth). This is an ABSOLUTE steal, just like Rice was last year. Draft McCoy as your third-drafted player in all upcoming fantasy football drafts — Then get ready for top 5-7RB upside!
Pierre Thomas could, in hindsight, be one of the biggest steals in 2010 fantasy football drafts. The Saints starting rusher recently signed his one-year tender, and although he still wants a long-term deal, I wouldn’t worry too much about any kind of holdout — Yet, that is. The Saints ran the ball a ton last year… Reggie Bush ran the ball 70 times and Mike Bell ran the ball 172 times. Well, Bell is now with the Eagles and those 170+ carries are going to go somewhere. Bush isn’t likely to see a huge bump from his 70-100, so the only other player that could take on more work would be Lynell Hamilton. But, Hamilton has just 35 NFL carries to his name, so it’s safe to say that this is Thomas’ time to shine. And Thomas has always performed well when given the workload. Last season, Thomas received just 147 carries, but he averaged 5.4 yards-per-carry. He also pulled in an impressive 39 receptions in 2009. All Thomas has to do now is stay healthy, as he has had issues staying on the field last year. At 5+ yards-per-carry, and with 220+ carries likely headed in Thomas’direction, the super-sleeper should rush for well over 1,100 yards in 2010. The best news here is that his ADP currently sits around the third- to fourth-round range.
Chris Wells has breakout written all over him. Tim Hightower will be involved in AZ moving forward, but he isn’t a feature back. Wells is, though. Wells has the ability to be a top 5RB in dynasty formats and a top 10RB in 2010. The loss of Kurt Warner could help the fantasy production of Wells, or it could hurt the fantasy production of Wells. It’s tough to speculate what will happen without an experienced passer under center, but given that the Cards have Larry Fitzgerald commanding defensive attention, my guess is that Wells will have a fine sophomore season. The Cardinals could finally implement a truly balanced offensive attack this coming season, which would have Wells rushing for well over 1,100 yards and 10TDs in 2010.
Like Chris Wells, Knowshon Moreno has a strong shot at rushing for 1,200+ yards and 10 scores in 2010. It will all come down to how well that passing attack can function without Brandon Marshall. If Denver can move the ball through the air, something that concerns me, Moreno will shine. If they can’t get those chains moving consistently, the running back might see a lot of eight-man fronts in 2010, which could even eventually lead to injury. I like Moreno’s future in this league no matter what, I just fear that Moreno will be hit and miss each week in 2010, depending on the defensive match-up. In the end, due to a diminished offensive attack, we might see Moreno hit a sophomore slump. Prove me wrong, Kyle Orton!
Felix Jones is starting to become everyone’s dark horse sleeper running back this off-season. He is actually quite deserving of the status. Jones has bulked up in his upper body this off-season and is right around 225 pounds. That’s fantastic news for those banking on the running back in 2010. Will he start? Will he get most of the carries in Dallas this upcoming season? Those are tough questions to answer this early on during the off-season, and honestly, I don’t think there will be an absolute starter in Dallas in 2010. That said, Jones can still do some serious fantasy damage sharing carries in that Dallas’ offense, as the increased weight could make him a three-down running back. Jones only received 116 carries last season, but he racked-up 685 yards on those carries, which is 5.9 yards-per-carry. If Jones can get 200 carries, and I assume he will if he manages to stay healthy, I would expect him to rush for over 1,000 yards (especially at 225 pounds). He only pulled in 19 passes last season, but Jones could double that in 2010 and pull in 250+ receiving yards. I also expect him to double his touchdown total from last season, which was three total scores. The reason I don’t see more touchdowns in the cards for Jones is because Marion Barber could get most of the short-yardage work. Barber definitely hasn’t proved that he can handle starter-type carries in this league, but make no mistake about it, he is the best short-yardage back on that Cowboys’ roster. Tashard Choice could get some decent touches at some point in 2010, but he is more of a very deep sleeper at this stage in the game… injury could open the door for Choice, though, so keep that in mind if injury should strike that roster.
While the above players are at the top of my list for being “The Next Ray Rice,” there are plenty of other names worth mentioning, so feel free to comment below and get some discussion going about other sleeper running backs entering 2010.
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1. Thoughts on the list? Disagree? Agree?
2. Have more names to add to the list?
Smitty, you are dead-on on these players.
There are a couple of upcoming sophomore RBs, which are Shonne Green and Bernard Scott. Green is probably well-known in FF’s inner circle due to a glimpse of his mini-breakout performances in final regular games and mini-breakout games in Jets’ playoff runs. Am I only guy who think Scott is a stud RB waiting to happen if Benson get dinged up big time? Scott already have proven himself in a full-time starting gig when Benson was out last year.
Michael Bush is poised for a breakout. No Fargas and DMac cannot stay healthy and may be better suited for a Reggie Bush type role.
Thanks, aznflyer14. I like Scott, but we shall see how he progresses entering training camp. I liked him a lot as a rookie, so I won’t write him off, that’s for sure.
North End: Bush is a great player to mention, as well.
Keep ‘em coming, Xtremers! Any other names?
[...] drafts this summer as he was last year. But a few other players could be on the verge of becoming this year’s Ray Rice . [Fantasy Football [...]
[...] drafts this summer as he was last year. But a few other players could be on the verge of becoming this year’s Ray Rice . [Fantasy Football [...]