What are you looking for with that number one pick? Points? Consistency? Durability? Probably all those things. In a nutshell, you are looking for a player who has the ability to single-handedly win you your fantasy game, and be there for you every single week. Most years, there is a clear-cut guy who stands out above the rest, but this isn’t most seasons. A legitimate case can be made for four players at that top spot in 2010, even if you take into account variations in scoring. Let’s take a good look at all four, one by one, in no particular order.
Adrian Peterson has been sitting on his perch at the number one spot for a couple of years now, and has been a fantasy impact player since he came into the league in 2007. That year, dynasty owners crowned “All Day” as the number one rookie in the land, and those lucky enough to have drafted him saw their team’s fortunes turn immediately. 1,500 combined yards and 13 touchdowns on 238 carries and 19 receptions vaulted Peterson to the top fantasy spot in the land entering the 2008 season and he hasn’t looked back since. Over the last two years, the Vikings have fed him the rock an average of 338 times, the result being a 4.6 yard-per-carry average, over 3,000 rushing yards, and 28 TDs. Play in PPR? Peterson has you covered there too, as he caught 43 passes for 436 additional yards last season. Great stats for sure, but the best part is that Peterson should be able to improve on those numbers this season because Chester Taylor, Peterson’s veteran compliment for the last three seasons, has moved on to Chicago. That means AP is now in line for third down duties in addition to the rest of what he was already getting in this offense. While it is probably not sensible to simply add on Taylor’s numbers in total, Peterson should be able to tack on a good portion of them. All told, he is probably looking at 350 carries, 55 receptions, 2,000 total yards and around 20 TDs. How do you pass those numbers up if you are sitting on the clock with the first pick? Read on…
The Ravens star running back is entering his third year, second as the team’s starter. As a rookie in 2008, Ray Rice was part of a three-headed monster at running back, gaining only 454 yards on 107 attempts. Veterans Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain were the main ball handlers for Baltimore that year as new head coach John Harbaugh looked for the answer at running back. Last season he found his answer, and things changed dramatically for Rice when he was handed the starting job. He took full advantage of the opportunity and finished second only to Chris Johnson in total yards from scrimmage. Rice rushed for 1,339 yards, added another 702 yards through the air and, amazingly, he also lead the Ravens in receptions, catching 78 passes. If there was a knock on Rice last season, it was his lack of touchdown production. Eight touchdowns is a pretty paltry total when you consider his yardage output, but that lack of production was more about a conscious decision by the coaches to use McGahee at the goalline than a knock on Rice’s ability. There is no question Rice can and will put up big numbers in all facets of the offense in 2010, but what fantasy players want to see is more trips to the end zone. If Rice can scavenge at least half of the 14 touchdowns McGahee scored last season, and I think he will, you are looking at a total of 15 scores for Rice in 2010, give or take a couple. Add in 2,000 total yards and 70 receptions and you have yourself a stud worthy of the no. 1 pick.
Of the four players we are talking about, Chris Johnson is probably the one a majority of fantasy owners would pick if given the choice at number one, and with good reason. Johnson had a season for the ages in 2010, putting up 2,006 yards rushing and 503 yards through the air on 50 receptions. Unlike Rice, his touchdown production was more in line with his yardage production as he hit pay dirt 16 times. As if all that weren’t enough, he showed his ability to break of long scores – he did it eight times from 30 yards or more. If you play in a league that awards bonus point for long touchdowns, that means he becomes even more valuable. The million dollar question is this: can he do it all over again? If you ask Chris Johnson, the answer is yes and then some as he was recently quoted as saying he wants to reach 2,500 yards rushing in 2010, but that he’d be happy with simply breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season mark of 2,105 yards. Those certainly are lofty goals, but that may be setting the bar a little too high. Historically speaking, eclipsing the 2,000 yard rushing mark has happened only six times, including Johnson, and not one of the guys who surpassed that mark ever did it again. If you are a betting man, those are pretty good odds against a repeat. Realistically, I think owners can expect Johnson to surpass the 2,000 total yards mark with ease and add in 40-50 catches with around 15 TDs. Those are star-studded numbers worthy of a number one pick, and there is a realistic potential for even more production.
After sharing time with Fred Taylor over his first three seasons, Maurice Jones-Drew finally got his chance to shine in 2009 and he didn’t disappoint his owners. He immediately became the focal point of the offense, carrying the ball 312 times for 1,391 yards (a 4.5 per-carry average), catching 53 passes for 374 yards, and scoring 16 times – twice from outside of 50 yards. The “bowling ball”, as he is affectionately known, will enter the 2010 season looking to improve on those numbers and there is a very good chance he can do that. Fact is, he is already getting 300+ carries and has averaged 50 catches per season – with that quantity of touches, hitting the 2,000 total yard mark is well within the realm of possibilities. He has also surpassed the 14 TD threshold three out of the four years he has played, so getting there again is both expected and likely. All told, Maurice Jones-Drew puts up all the numbers worthy of a number 1 pick; it just takes a little faith to be bold enough to pull the trigger.
In the end, if you own the number one pick, none of these guys are bad choices. Many will look at last year’s statistics to make the decision for them; in this case that means Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson are the obvious choices. The flip side is knowing that nothing stays the same in this game and being able to project who is capable of making that leap, or deciding who may take a step back leads you down an alternate path. The other thing to keep in mind is that picks 1 through 4 are pretty much on par from a value perspective, so if you own that top pick it is worth putting out feelers to see if you could get compensated for moving down a few spots. The bonus is you’ll get a better player in round two on top of anything the trade nets you.
Have your own thoughts? Comment below, or get a discussion going in the forums.
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Thoughts? Predictions?
Ray Rice’s may get some of the TD production from Willis McGahee, but I suspect Baltimore may try to increase Anquan Boldin’s role in that department in order to diversify their red zone offense.
Chris Johnson and the Titans face a much tougher schedule with stronger run defenses than last year. I do not believe that he will have as many opportunities to reel off as many long scores.
I’m bullish on MJD since the entire offense has had another year in which to gel and there haven’t been significant injuries. When I consider how recently MJD was given the RB1 role, or how few passing weapons JAX had in recent years, it gives me the impression that MJD can be even more dominating when everyone around him is comfortable in their assignments.
Lastly, I think both Frank Gore and Michael Turner both have a shot at being in the top 4 at the end of the season, for the same reason I like MJD: continuity in an above-average offenses that suddenly have playmakers in other skill positions.
Then again, WTF do I know.