Each and every fantasy football season, we compete in a handful of Fantasy Football Expert Leagues. One of which is a yearly redraft league run by JunkyardJake.com. This is a PPR format with line-up requirements of 1QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, 1TE, 1K and 1DST (full scoring here). The 2010 draft is still on going, but I have provided the first five rounds below, with a link to rounds 5-18.
Our team so far: Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Matt Schaub, Jermichael Finley, Vincent Jackson and Terrell Owens.
Draft Date: 8/3/10
1.01 | Johnson, Chris TEN RB (Fantasy Football Calculator)
1.02 | Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (RotoExperts.com)
1.03 | Rice, Ray BAL RB (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
1.04 | Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB (HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com)
1.05 | Brees, Drew NOS QB (JunkyardJake.Com)
1.06 | Gore, Frank SFO RB (FantasySharks.com)
1.07 | Turner, Michael ATL RB (FantasyTailgate.com)
1.08 | Charles, Jamaal KCC RB (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
1.09 | Jackson, Steven STL RB (UltimateFFStrategy.Com)
1.10 Johnson, Andre HOU WR (FantasyFootballOasis.Com)
1.11 Manning, Peyton IND QB (FantasyFootballSearch.Com)
1.12 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB (FantasyFootballEdge.net)
As I write in my most recent Ray Rice Player Spotlight, I am starting to like Ray Rice number one overall this year. Would I take him at 1.01? No, as I wouldn’t need to, but if given the 1.01 in this draft, I would have tried to move down to this exact spot (1.03) so that I could nab my top-ranked back heading into 2010 (and move up at another slot). I was happy to get this draft slot and I didn’t hesitate to punch in Ray Rice as my first drafted player. As I write in that Player Spotlight on Rice, I envision the runner having 1,300-1,400 rushing yards and 12-14 total scores. And I expect him to pull in another 70+ catches for 700 receiving yards. Rice is a beast on a mission this year and I firmly believe that he is the safest running back to take in all 2010 fantasy football drafts.
As far as other picks in the first-round, I think Andre Johnson fell too far given that this is a PPR draft. I’d much rather have a stud wide receiver in this kind of format over a questionable running back, and to me both Jamaal Charles and Steven Jackson are questionable entering 2010. I don’t trust either. While both could prove me wrong, I think Ryan Mathews is a safer grab entering 2010… safer than either Charles and Jackson.
As for the Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers selections, I’d venture to say that a lot of people would tend to call those both reaches in a PPR format, but honestly, both of these quarterbacks have the potential lead fantasy leagues in scoring… so can they really be labeled reaches? I say No. There are many draft strategies and many paths to victory. Some fantasy owners do well with drafting a QB early, because they have great success with sleeper running backs. Taking a passer in the first-round doesn’t workout well for some, but it can work out real well for others. It’s all about draft strategies and what draft strengths each individual fantasy owner has in their arsenal.
2.01 | Mathews, Ryan SDC RB (FantasyFootballEdge.net)
2.02 | Austin, Miles DAL WR (FantasyFootballSearch.Com)
2.03 | Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR (FantasyFootballOasis.Com)
2.04 | Wayne, Reggie IND WR (UltimateFFStrategy.Com)
2.05 | Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
2.06 | Moss, Randy NEP WR (FantasyTailgate.com)
2.07 | Johnson, Calvin DET WR (FantasySharks.com)
2.08 | Greene, Shonn NYJ RB (JunkyardJake.Com)
2.09 | Marshall, Brandon MIA WR (HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com)
2.10 | McCoy, LeSean PHI RB (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
2.11 | Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB (RotoExperts.com)
2.12 | White, Roddy ATL WR (Fantasy Football Calculator)
If you are a regular here at FFX, you know how high I am on LeSean McCoy this upcoming season. When the running backs get questionable in that late second-round, I think one should at least grab a runner with “home run” upside. McCoy has that upside. What I mean by that is that McCoy has the upside to produce like a top 5RB in 2010. No other back available at that 2.10 had that kind of upside if you ask me. Knowing I had a pick coming up a few selections later, I decided to wait on grabbing my first receiver. I like going WR/WR in PPR drafts if given a late first-round pick, but with the 1.03, or either slot above it, my strategy of choice is to go RB/WR/RB, or RB/RB/WR. With the way the fantasy talent is falling in that late second- and early third-round this year, grabbing skilled receiving backs seems to be the key to building a well rounded team. Again, if I would have had those bookend 1.12/2.01 picks in this draft, you would have likely seen me pull out the WR/WR approach. McCoy is my favorite second-round grab this fantasy season.
Even as a rookie, Ryan Mathews is a quality top 10-14 overall pick in 2010 drafts. He is. The rookie is in an excellent situation and he makes a fine fantasy RB1 if you’re going WR/RB this season. Pairing him with a stud WR1 in that first-round makes for a fine foundation for any team.
Honestly, the rest of this round had no surprises and I think a justified argument can be made for any of the second-round selections.
3.01 | Jennings, Greg GBP WR (Fantasy Football Calculator)
3.02 | Colston, Marques NOS WR (RotoExperts.com)
3.03 | Jackson, DeSean PHI WR (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
3.04 | Grant, Ryan GBP RB (HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com)
3.05 | Wells, Chris ARI RB (JunkyardJake.Com)
3.06 | Brady, Tom NEP QB (FantasySharks.com)
3.07 | Boldin, Anquan BAL WR (FantasyTailgate.com)
3.08 | Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
3.09 | Thomas, Pierre NOS RB (UltimateFFStrategy.Com)
3.10 | Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB (FantasyFootballOasis.Com)
3.11 | Forte, Matt CHI RB (FantasyFootballSearch.Com)
3.12 | Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB
When I passed on a receiver in the second-round, I was hoping to land Greg Jennings in the third-round. Clearly Jennings didn’t make it to my 3.03, but I am pleased enough with landing DeSean Jackson as my undervalued fantasy WR1. When one uses the RB/RB/WR strategy, it’s tough to ask for a better receiver than Jackson. The dynamic speedster had a breakout sophomore campaign in 2009, pulling in 63 passes for 1,167 and 9TDs. He also had five 100-yard outings. With Kevin Kolb under center in Philly this season, I predict Jackson pulls in closer to 80 passes in 2010. That would lead to well over 1,200 yards, maybe 1,300+, and quite possibly double-digit touchdowns. Kolb is a more accurate passer than Donovan McNabb, so expect a lot of big plays out of Jackson in 2010.
Hakeem Nicks and Matt Forte both got nabbed a little high in this draft, at least in my opinion… but Nicks could have a monster 2010 campaign, and Forte could still earn third-round value when all is said and done.
4.01 | Rice, Sidney MIN WR (FantasyFootballEdge.net)
4.02 | Clark, Dallas IND TE (FantasyFootballSearch.Com)
4.03 | Romo, Tony DAL QB (FantasyFootballOasis.Com)
4.04 | Smith, Steve CAR WR (UltimateFFStrategy.Com)
4.05 | Best, Jahvid DET RB (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
4.06 | Crabtree, Michael SFO WR (FantasyTailgate.com)
4.07 | Benson, Cedric CIN RB (FantasySharks.com)
4.08 | Davis, Vernon SFO TE (JunkyardJake.Com)
4.09 | Garcon, Pierre IND WR (HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com)
4.10 | Schaub, Matt HOU QB (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
4.11 | Rivers, Philip SDC QB (RotoExperts.com)
4.12 | Gates, Antonio SDC TE (Fantasy Football Calculator)
Matt Schaub was a no-brainer at 4.10. Wide receiver and tight end were still a big need for us at this point in the draft, but Schaub could be top three at his position at season’s end, something that can’t be said for the receivers available at this point in the draft. One of my favorite strategies this season is drafting one of Schaub, Tony Romo or Tom Brady in the fourth. Pure value! Smart drafting!
Pierre Garcon was a major reach in this draft at 4.09. Garcon’s ADP in PPR formats is in the 7th- to 8th-round range right now, so grabbing Garcon in the fourth is unnecessary. A wide receiver’s breakout season is usually his third NFL season, so he could have a great year, but this is easily two rounds too early. Let him fall further than this in your upcoming fantasy drafts. If someone grabs him earlier than you, assuming you’re drafting him somewhere near his ADP, so be it… that just means someone else will fall to you that shouldn’t have.
5.01 | Kolb, Kevin PHI QB (Fantasy Football Calculator)
5.02 | Smith, Steve NYG WR (RotoExperts.com)
5.03 | Finley, Jermichael GBP TE (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
5.04 | Flacco, Joe BAL QB (HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com)
5.05 | Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR (JunkyardJake.Com)
5.06 | Welker, Wes NEP WR (FantasySharks.com)
5.07 | Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR (FantasyTailgate.com)
5.08 | Cutler, Jay CHI QB (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
5.09 | Addai, Joseph IND RB (UltimateFFStrategy.Com)
5.10 | Jones, Felix DAL RB (FantasyFootballOasis.Com)
5.11 | Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB (FantasyFootballSearch.Com)
5.12 | Wallace, Mike PIT WR (FantasyFootballEdge.net)
One of my biggest breakout candidates entering 2010 is Jermichael Finley. Read my recent Jermichael Finley Player Spotlight, where I project the tight end to score 10+ touchdowns, grab 70-80 balls and pull in 1,000-1,100 yards in 2010. Finley was falling into the 5th-round months ago, but his ADP is now rising into the 4th-round, especially in PPR formats. If you want Finley this upcoming season, and believe me you do, you will have to pay the price! Even as a 4th-round grab, I believe the third-year tight end is going extremely outperform his draft position.
Reaches in the fifth included Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler. Eight quarterbacks had already been selected before both of these grabs, and including both Flacco and Cutler, there were eight Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer-like passers to be had.. if I was forced to reach for a passer here, or in the next round, Palmer and Ryan would have been at the top of my list.
While the Wallace, Mike (5.12) could be considered a tad too early, I honestly feel that he is more than capable of earning that kind of draft value when all is said and done.
6.01 | Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR (FantasyFootballEdge.net)
6.02 | Jackson, Vincent SDC WR (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
6.03 | Celek, Brent PHI TE (FantasyFootballOasis.Com)
6.04 | Ward, Hines PIT WR (UltimateFFStrategy.Com)
6.05 | Witten, Jason DAL TE (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
6.06 | Brown, Ronnie MIA RB (FantasyTailgate.com)
6.07 | Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR (FantasySharks.com)
6.08 | Breaston, Steve ARI WR (JunkyardJake.Com)
6.09 | Moss, Santana WAS WR (HattyWaiverWireGuru.Com)
6.10 | Barber, Marion DAL RB (FantasyFootballSearch.Com)
6.11 | Harvin, Percy MIN WR (RotoExperts.com)
6.12 | Bush, Reggie NOS RB (Fantasy Football Calculator)
We actually had the 6.10 selection in this round, but I traded our 8th-round pick down to move up to the 6.02 to land Vincent Jackson. Sure, the receiver is suspended for the first three weeks of the 2010 NFL season, and yes there is the risk that he follows through with his holdout threats this season, but I was willing to take the risk with my WR2 slot. Once Jackson is back in Week 4, assuming he does return and does not holdout, he will likely be a low-end fantasy WR1 (at fantasy WR2-type value). Even with the three missed games, and again assuming he doesn’t hold out from Week 4 on, Jackson will still likely pull in 1,000+ yards and 7 or so scores in 2010.
7.01 | Williams, Ricky MIA RB (Fantasy Football Calculator)
7.02 | Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE (RotoExperts.com)
7.03 | Owens, Terrell CIN WR (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
View the rest of Round Seven Here!
Our Terrell Owens selection at 7.03 could end up being a monster-steal in this PPR draft. Owens is in an ideal situation, one that could have him producing fantasy WR2-type numbers one more time. In any other situation, I would probably draft T.O. more as a fantasy WR4, but in recent expert drafts, I’m starting to snag the veteran as a high-end fantasy WR3. Doubt the 36-year-old veteran all you want, this situation is unique and I am on board! He won’t catch 90+ passes in 2010, he couldn’t given all the mouths to feed in Cincy this year… but this could be one of those situations where Owens has a couple multiple-touchdown performances and a steady string of consecutive touchdown performances by season’s end. I wouldn’t be shocked if he caught 9-10 scores this year with 900-1,000 yards. With Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Matt Schaub, Jermichael Finley, Vincent Jackson and Terrell Owens, I couldn’t be more pleased with the foundation of this squad (especially in a PPR format).
Our steal of this draft was Arian Foster at 9.03. Foster has fantasy RB2 upside this season
Talk about this draft on our fantasy football forums here.
Thoughts? Observations? Predictions?
By the way, we moved our eight-round pick down in order to move our 6th-round all the way to the top of the 6th to grab Vincent Jackson… so add him to our roster.
Even though he is a holdout risk, and suspended for the start of the season, we needed a strong WR2 option and i like the possible reward even with the risk.
Smitty , do you think if you draft Jennings or White at 2.10 ,McCoy will be not available at 3.03 ? I doubted , you can like D.Jax (nothing wrong here ), but in PPR this one trick pony like WR #1 is weak ! (solid team but RB-RB was a mistake imo in this situation ),sorry for my comments but this is XTREME and how we rule baby LOL
Z, I think DeSean is just about as good as Jennings. I didn’t want to take the chance on McCoy getting nabbed. Reaching is justified when the player can outperform that slot you “reached” for him with… Could he have fallen? There was a good chance, maybe even better than good, but I have no problem with Jackson over Jennings, whereas I have A HUGE problem having McCoy over Mendy (or Grant, Pierre or Wells)… A lot of people might like Mendy even more than McCoy this year, and that’s why we play the game… and for those people grabbing Jennings, or White, first would have been the way to go. I would rather have had Jennings, like I wrote above in my write-up, but it’s not a big difference in my opinion. I love Jennings this year, though. I really do. Him and Jackson both are two of the most underrated low-end fantasy WR1s in 2010.
Also, as I wrote above, I go RB/RB in a PPR when given the 1.01, 1.02 or 1.03 pick this year. The PPR running backs are there for the taking in those draft slot situations (Rice/MJD… then McCoy)…. this is a great strategy IMO. It’s not for everyone, and everyone has different drafting strengths, as I said above… and there are tons of ways to build “the team” that can win it. For me, in that early first-round slot, I am all over the RB/McCoy/WR/Finley strategy this year. All over it! And that won’t likely change.
Great commentary and I NEVER mind if someone disagrees. It’s FFX, like you said! So keep bringing it, but Rice/McCoy/DeSean and Finley is far from weak in a PPR… Rice will catch over 70-75 passes this year, McCoy pulled in 40 receptions last year and was used in limited fashion in 2009… and Finley could grab 70 balls or more in 2010…. this team is all about the Points-Per-Reception!
So now, in a 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DST and 1K format, we have:
Matt Schaub
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
DeSean Jackson
Vincent Jackson
Terrell Owens
Jermichael Finley
I like that squad a TON in this PPR scoring format. I’ll need to work on Jackson’s early season replacement, but I think I’ll get a solid contributor…
From the start- i like this site a ton, i think you did AMAZING job Smitty !!!
At the same time , i like, you like …this is lyrics..
Show me the $$$ Smitty ,CHAMPIONSHIP !!! This is redraft and from 12 teams 8 !!! (usually 6 is max ) in playoff !
2007 record 8-5 playoff spot #5 and lose in first round .
2008 record 5-8 playoff spot #8 (from 12 team) and lose in first round .
2009 record 5-8 again and miss playoff .
It’s time to delivered Smitty !
what good does this do if we only know that it’s a ppr league? you need to list the scoring format.
Chops:
Scoring is here.
Hated the McCoy pick. When you’re #3, your likely worst-case scenario is R. Rice and F. Jones at RB1/RB2. Replace Felix with Best, Benson, Moreno…it’s all the same; if that’s your duo, you likely have Romo/Rivers/Brady at QB…AND a top-flight WR like Boldin/Jennings. If the WR are gone, Dallas Clark will not finish very far from McCoy’s YDS and TD, and he’ll do it at TE. Even without hindsight, you not only opened up a hole at WR, you did it by reaching for a guy. Using hindsight, the move lead to a dreadful WR combination. DeSean is in the best situation and he’s a young WR working with a 1st-year starter at QB.
IMO you should have immediately began snagging RB in hopes of handcuffing another owner into a trade. There’s always “that guy” who was never satisfied with available RBs and ends up in huge trouble. Foster was an excellent pick; one that saved your team. UltimateFFStrategy not only has Addai and Thomas at RB2, he also has Slaton. Foster has special value to him. I think he also is relying on Ryan and Eli as his QB. Foster and Favre alone are worth S. Smith—throw in Manningham if he’ll throw you New Orleans’ turnover-party DEF. He still gets to start Chambers at WR3, but his RB worries would disappear—the 33/7 TD/INT ratio he added at QB would seal it.
Few systems don’t involve the RB catching the ball, and while your point is taken, you’re forgetting a major rule with PPR leagues: you go for yards at RB and receptions at WR; not vice-versa. One mistake hurt you, but two brilliant risks paid off with a top 5 QB and a #1 RB in a points-happy system. Finley was also excellent—GB’s o-line did a 180, which will allow Finley to release a LOT more often than last year. Your site helped me make a very difficult decision so I’m simply here to pay you back. When you get V-Jax back, there’s really no stopping you. FantasySharks.com and FantasyOasis will be waiting for you in the top 3.
Thanks for the comments, libradawg. You bring good points. The Vincent Jackson situation has gotten worse since this draft, so this draft is a great example of how quickly things can change. Not that there wasn’t risk there with V-Jax, there was, but I would let him fall a lot further today vs in July/early August. I still like this team and I think we can hang with everyone until V-Jax returns. If he doesn’t return until Week 10, and I doubt it comes to that, the risk may not pay off. We shall see.
I do love the McCoy pick, though. Not everyone believes in the runner, but we do. He has top 5-10RB upside. “Upside” is the keyword… if it was a lock it wouldn’t be called upside, so this will be fun to revisit come DEC.
Again, keep bringing the fantasy commentary!