Week 7: Start & Bench

10/16/2012 5:07 pm by in Fantasy Football Articles, Fantasy Football Expert Analysis, Start Bench Advice

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The Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, Eagles, and Falcons are on bye this week. Start your studs! Trust your gut! Win the game! You won’t find the “usual suspects” listed here.

Start

  • Andrew Luck: The Browns have allowed two or more passing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in five of their six games, 15 passing touchdowns in all. The Browns won’t put much pressure on Andrew Luck so expect a strong game from the rookie. 290/2.

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick: The going should be a little easier at home this week for Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bills fantasy players. The Titans have surrendered two touchdown passes or more to opposing quarterbacks in five of six games. After a two game road swing through the west Fitzpatrick returns home and with upwards of four starting quarterbacks on bye weeks he has a matchup he can exploit. 252/2

  • Matt Hasselbeck: Matt Hasselbeck starts against the Bills and he has the most fantasy friendly matchups for quarterbacks. The Bills have surrendered 13 passing touchdowns (same as the Titans) and Hasselbeck should add to that total this week. 263/2

  • Brandon Weeden: With five teams on bye we have to dig deep. In the last three weeks Brandon Weeden has thrown for 320; 291/2; and 231/2. This week Weeden has a good matchup against the Colts in a game where the Colts are more likely to pass than run. The Colts have allowed 10 passing touchdowns including games against Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert and Mark Sanchez. This week Weeden should give you multiple touchdown passes and a fair amount of yards in a balanced attack. 244/2

  • Chris Johnson: The Bills allow 173 ypg on the ground. They’ve surrendered seven rushing touchdowns and are a very favorable matchup for opposing running backs. This is a game Chris Johnson should have a lot of success both on the ground and via the air. Pencil Johnson in as a RB2 for over 115 total yards and a touchdown.

  • Steven Ridley: Opposing running backs have averaged 130 ypg on the ground vs the Jets over the last four weeks and the Jets are ranked 28th against the run giving up 150 ypg on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns on the season. Stevan Ridley will get most of the carries and fantasy owners can trust him as a RB2 with upside. 89/1

  • C.J. Spiller/Fred Jackson: The Titans are ranked 28th against fantasy running backs having allowed an average of 115 ypg to running backs with six rushing touchdowns and around 6/58 receiving out of the backfield. Given the timeshare both running backs deserve RB2 consideration this week with Jackson having borderline RB1 potential because of a roughly 55%/45% edge in touches per game and goal line carries. UPDATE: The latest news we have is that Jackson and Spiller will alternate every two series giving each of them the potential for 12-15 touches week to week.

  • Felix Jones: Felix Jones is probably the top waiver wire addition in many redraft leagues. The Panthers are a top five fantasy matchup for running backs and it looks like DeMarco Murray has some ligament damage to go along with his sprained foot. While the Panthers have allowed only three rushing touchdowns only the Seahawks in Week 5 failed to run for over 117 yards or better against this defense. Jones is a high end RB2 in this matchup.

  • Kenny Britt/Kendal Wright: Their value will be a little higher with Matt Hasselbeck behind center but the Bills secondary is fantasy friendly to wide receivers. The Bills have surrendered 11 touchdown passes and an average of 176 ypg to the position. Kenny Britt and Kendal Wright are good for 10 & 8 targets respectively and that should be enough for WR2 consideration for Britt and WR3/flex consideration for Wright in ppr leagues.

  • Vincent Jackson: Vincent Jackson has another strong matchup this week against the Saints who have given up six touchdowns to wide receivers over the past two games. Jackson has scored three times in his last two games and should once again lead the Bucs in targets. 4/71/1

  • Jeremy Kerley: Opposing wide receivers are averaging 222 receiving ypg over the last four games with nine touchdowns over the same span. With New England limiting the run game expect the Jets to throw the ball successfully with Kerley being the #1 target. He may be a bit of a boom/bust but lately it’s been all boom for wide receivers against this secondary. 3/67/1

  • Josh Gordon: The Colts are a good matchup for wide receivers and Josh Gordon is coming on strong. Overall the Colts allow only 200 yards passing per game but against wide receivers they are ranked 27th, giving up 162 ypg with nine touchdowns. Considering the Browns defense the fourth quarter could see a lot of passing. Gordon is a borderline WR2 / high end WR3 this week. 4/56/1 with upside

  • Denarius Moore: The Raiders came out of their bye with a balanced attack with Denarius Moore as their clear WR1. Moore should produce as a WR3 this week. 4/73

  • Chris Givens: You may find Chris Givens on your waiver wire and if you do he’s worth an add if you have a spot. He’s starting to get more targets and while he’s mostly a deep threat he’s produced 51 yds or better in his last three matchups. The Rams will have to pass in this game and the Packers can be passed on. He’s only a sleeper this week but he could produce. 3/66/1

  • Heath Miller: The Bengals are the third best matchup for tight ends in fantasy. Heath Miller had a similar matchup against the Titans last week and went for 6/67. This week Miller should continue his productive ways. 5/59

  • Scott Chandler: Start all tight ends against the Titans. They are the best matchup for the position for fantasy purposes and have given up seven touchdowns on the season with an average of 6/65 over the last four games. Scott Chandler won’t have to be kept in to block this week. 4/42/1

  • Kyle Rudolph: Kyle Rudolph has scored five touchdowns in his last five games. He’s a definite red zone target and his number of targets has increased over the last three weeks. His production transcends the matchup. 4/48/1

Bench

  • Alex Smith: Alex Smith has a tough matchup against the Seahawks. They had allowed only 2 passing touchdowns with an average of 210 passing yards a game prior to last week’s matchup with Tom Brady.

  • Joe Flacco: Joe Flacco does best at home. This week he travels to Houston and with the Ravens missing Ray Lewis in the middle, the Texan run game should dominate time of possession. When he does have the ball Flacco may have more forced errors as a result of the offense trying to make up for the defensive struggles and what will be a matchup play (Ravens) for opposing running backs in coming weeks.

  • Christian Ponder: The Cardinals are the third toughest opponent in fantasy for quarterbacks. They’ve held three of the last four opposing quarterbacks to 217 yards passing or less (141/153). The Vikings may go run heavy against a team that has given up 253 yards rushing over the past two games.

  • Marshawn Lynch/Frank Gore: You cannot sit either of them but know they are closer to low end RB2/flex value this week. The 49ers and Seahawks are ranked 4th and 2nd against the run for fantasy purposes.

  • Mikel LeShoure: As mentioned before Mikel LeShoure is more a matchup play than a regular starter and this week he goes against a Bears rush defense who hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 1.

  • BenJarvus Green-Ellis: BenJarvus Green-Ellis faces a top ten Steeler rush defense. He hasn’t scored since Week 2 and he’s averaging 49 ypg over his last four games. BGE might get you 60 yards rushing but if you have a better option this is the week to use it.

  • Shonne Greene: Shonne Greene had a great game against the Colts last week but in the last three games the Pariots have held the running backs of the Bills, Broncos and Seahawks to an average of 67 ypg with no rushing touchdowns.

  • Brandon Lloyd: Even if he plays Antonio Cromartie is doing a good job and the Jets will apply pressure to Brady.

  • Marcellus Bennett: With only nine targets and scoreless in the last three games Martellus Bennett should sit this one out.

  • Coby Fleener: The Browns are a top ten unit against the tight end. 3/35

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5 Comments so far

  1. nygiant October 16th, 2012 5:13 pm

    TE is killing me in my PPR league! Guess I roll with Pettigrew over Bennett for week 7? The Owner of Gresham dumped him before this weekends games… do I grab him? Is he worth a #1 waiver in my position? J Cook and Chandler are also out there.

  2. Tavaner October 16th, 2012 5:29 pm

    hey nygiant –
    Start Pettigrew, no question. Felix is the prize on the waiver wire this week and unless you are loaded and even then I’d get him for trade bait. Gresham is a definite add and makes a good pairing with Pettigrew but I’d settle for a Felix/Cook duo if that were possible. Chandler really only has value when he scores – and he’s a regular red zone target but some games that isn’t enough. Bennett will eventually get back in the mix of the game plans, we just don’t know when and a three game drought is a long time.

  3. takbax October 17th, 2012 9:50 am

    How big is your league? I wouldn’t waste a #1 waiver on a TE. Save the waiver when you have a chance to really pick up some talent that could be big for the rest of the season. Talent that can almost guarantee you 15+ extra points per week that you don’t currently have.

  4. nygiant October 17th, 2012 12:38 pm

    It is a 10 teamer and I ended up NOT using my #1 waiver at all. I have Pettigrew and Bennett as my TE’s, so I def agree Gresham isnt worth using the waiver on. He is still out there if I want him and is now a FA.

    Another Owner dropped David Wilson for a waiver move and hearing about Bradshaw’s most recent set back, is Wilson worthy of me using my #1 waiver on?

  5. Tavaner October 17th, 2012 1:03 pm

    Roster/starting requirements/dynasty or redraft?
    Things are never as simple as we think. :)

    Felix Jones would have been a good choice if he were available. Depends on your response as to whether Wilson is a worth while add.

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