Where do you draft Marcus Lattimore in rookie only dynasty drafts? His upside is matched only by his durability concerns and if not for the knee injuries there is no question as to whom would be the first running back taken in today’s NFL draft. Lattimore has rehabbed at the Andrews Institute in Florida, under the supervision of Doctor James Andrews nearly every day since January and most pundits expect Lattimore to be drafted in the late second or third rounds (tomorrow). But the question we want to grapple with here is where do you draft him?
Destination always factor’s into where a player is selected in rookie drafts so we’ll begin with that. While we don’t know when Marcus Lattimore will be drafted we can take a look at teams that have shown recent interest and teams that have multiple picks in the late second or third rounds. Recently the 49ers, Eagles, Patriots and Rams have shown a lot of interest (link).
Trades made during the draft will alter the number of picks NFL teams have in any given round and we can project that with 13 selections in the draft that the 49ers will either be moving up and down a lot or banking their picks into 2014. Examining the other recently interested teams the Rams, with two first round picks could trade the No 22 to a quarterback needy team and acquire additional picks. The Eagles could use the No 67 (fifth pick in the third round due to Browns using a 2nd in the supplemental draft and the Saints being penalized) on Lattimore, while the Patriots are always a team willing to trade back in the first round and acquire additional picks.
Teams with multiple picks in the second and third rounds are 49ers, Dolphins, Bengals, Texans and Titans. The 49ers are the common denominator in both groups and are in a better position to give Lattimore the time he should take to continue to rehab. We’ll know for sure Friday night where Lattimore will play.
However, the question we want to grapple with here is “Where do you draft him in dynasty drafts?”
Within the last week Marcus Lattimore has climbed most mock NFL and dynasty draft boards. In our FFX Rookie Running Back Rankings Lattimore is ranked fourth for the running back position. He has an ADP in mock rookie drafts of between 1.07 and 1.12, though that is a small sampling given that most dynasty rookie drafts will be held in May.
I believe the potential of Marcus Lattimore transcends team needs, especially with the depth this draft class offers. Yes, he is a huge boom/bust player but when in recent memory has a team not selecting in the top two ro three of a dynasty draft had a shot at this kind of potential? While no one could be criticized for considering a Lacy, Bernard, Austin, Ball or Patterson before Marcus Lattimore it’s my belief that Lattimore is worth the risk.
In one dynasty draft I’m seriously considering him at 1.02. That pick was acquired last year during a start up dynasty draft and it’s unlikely I’ll see this high a draft pick again for a few years. I will try to trade back a few spots as our draft nears and add a second for 2013 or 2014. If unable to, Lattimore is the pick.
If you can grab Lattimore at 1.07 or later that is great value but I’m taking an Xtreme approach to him! I’d consider him at any draft position despite the risk or scoring because the feeling here is that he’ll go to a good team. Those players taken before him may not.
What do you think? How high a pick would you be willing to invest in Marcus Lattimore?
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