Trading Larry Johnson

We recently wrote an article called What To Do With Larry Johnson In 2009 — The article basically advises dynasty owners to trade the runner now while there is still time. For more on why Johnson is such a risky player to hold onto, read the article, then jump back to this one, where we breakdown a trade that we just pulled off involving Johnson.

Now, trading Johnson isn’t easy right now — With a potential upcoming NFL suspension hanging over his head, and with a possible release on the way, or worse (Johnson staying in KC angry and upset), the only way to trade L.J. is to make a lateral move. What does this mean? Well, because no one is going to give you an elite talent in exchange for Johnson, you have to get creative and go after another risky player, but one that you believe in. For example, I firmly believe in both Joseph Addai and Braylon Edwards in 2009. Their poor 2008 campaigns make both perfect buy-low candidates right now, but both are players we firmly believe in heading into 2009. This lateral move can be looked at like buying and selling stock. Addai and Edwards have similar value to L.J. on the market, but we see both players bouncing back in a major way in the fantasy value department in 2009. This was our first plan of attack, but as you will read below, both the Addai and Edwards owners turned down (or did not respond) to our trade proposals — This led us onto a different trade path, but first take a look at our pre-trade roster:

Our Line-Up Pre-Trade

Again, as stated above, our first plan of attack was to buy-low on Edwards or Addai, but both owners said no/did not respond. The next plan of attack for us was to trade Johnson and Chad Ocho Cinco together for one better running back… this would force Lance Moore into our starting line-up, but it would upgrade our flex option significantly. Instead, we tried something else. The offer:

The Offer:

Rotoworld received:
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Moore, Lance NOS WR
Round 1, Pick 9 Rookie Pick

Fantasy Football Xtreme received:
Gore, Frank SF RB
Marshall, Brandon DEN WR
Washington, Nate TEN WR
Round 3, Pick 11 Rookie Pick

Within 24 hours, Evan from Rotoworld.com accepted the offer you see up above. We’re extremely pleased. Fantasy Football Xtreme is higher on Frank Gore than most Sites… we have him inside our Top 5 Overall heading into all leagues and formats in 2009. New offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye has made it clear that he thinks that Gore has the capability to carry the football 25 times per contest, and the team’s transition back into a run-first offense could turn Gore back into the beast that he was back in 2006. Gore, just 26, had a rough 2008 according to most, but 1,036 yards rushing (4.3), 43 receptions for 373 yards and eight total touchdowns is a solid year if you ask me. Since being a starter back in 2006, Gore has averaged over 1,700 yards per season and has missed just three games in three seasons. Our 2009 Full-Season Projections have Gore cranking out 305 rushes for 1,403 yards (4.6), 52 receptions for 450 yards and 14 total touchdowns. That places him number two overall for running backs in 2009 non-PPR leagues. That’s right, Gore is an upgrade over Turner in 2009 according to our 2009 Full-Season Projections. I know that sounds crazy coming from me, probably the biggest Michael Turner believer and supporter from last season, but Gore is a fantasy force and because he is currently undervalued, it was time to act. It was because of this wash-like swap between Gore and Turner, we were able to make the lateral move we were looking for that involved Larry Johnson, which was getting Brandon Marshall using Larry Johnson, the 1.09 and Lance Moore. This is the controversial part: Trading for Brandon Marshall.

Brandon Marshall is a player that we have been "down" on all off-season. His off-the-field issues make him a huge risk in 2009 and beyond, and he could be looking at an NFL suspension to start the upcoming season. All that said, there is a difference in buying low and selling high… What we just did was buy-low. Marshall is an extreme upgrade over Larry Johnson and Lance Moore as our flex-option, or WR2 (however you want to look at it)… and we can always trade him if need be — Many may doubt Marshall, but many still very much believe in him. That makes him an easy trade option later on down the road (if we so choose). Love him or hate him, Marshall has elite skills and given the cost that we got him for, he might be worth hanging onto. I know that part is going to cause a bit of controversy given how many times I have written "sell-high" next to his name, but again, this is a case of buying low and there is a big difference. So, our new line-up is:

Read original blog post

Elway4Prez said:

Not sure if i agree with it, but Im not real big on Gore. And Marshall just needs to figure what he wants to do with his life.  I think Lance Moore has more upside then Nate Washington, but you did get rid of LJ and thats the most important thing.

Washington was his drop. He really had nothing to do with the deal other than our league setup requires even player for player trades.

Yea, not everyone is high on Gore, but that's what we live for here at FFX… players to point out that make us stand out from the rest. Gore is one of our top buy-low guys.

Great comments everyone, even those of you who disagree. Solid takes.

Don't forget to comment on the articles! Those reading the articles, that don't visit the forums, could use some of your solid breakdowns, Xtremers!