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FFX: Fantasy Football Dilemma: Tomlinson

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9:34 pm
March 28, 2008


Smitty

Admin

Arizona

posts 5901

1

Fantasy Football Dilemma: LaDainian Tomlinson

Published: 03/28/2008 7:09 pm by Smitty in Fantasy Articles

Smitty

LaDainian Tomlinson

Is LaDainian Tomlinson still a top 2 overall pick?

This is a common topic on our Fantasy Football Forums right now, as so many fantasy owners are concerned about Tomlinson’s long-term value. Before I even begin to answer this very popular 2008 fantasy question, let’s first take a look at Tomlinson’s career stats.

LaDainian Tomlinson Career Stats

Year G Rush Yds Y/G Avg 100 Yd TD Rec Yds Y/G TD
2001 16 339 1236 77.3 3.6 4 10 59 367 22.9 0
2002 16 372 1683 105.2 4.5 7 14 79 489 30.6 1
2003 16 313 1645 102.8 5.3 6 13 100 725 45.3 4
2004 15 339 1335 89.0 3.9 6 17 53 441 29.4 1
2005 16 339 1462 91.4 4.3 5 18 51 370 23.1 2
2006 16 349 1815 113.4 5.2 10 28 56 508 31.8 3
2007 16 315 1474 92.1 4.7 6 15 60 475 29.7 3

Tomlinson Pros & Cons For 2008

Pros

  • San Diego has quite possibly the easiest rushing schedule in the entire NFL in 2008, according to our Opponents Strength of Schedule Breakdown
  • As you can see above, Tomlinson just doesn’t miss games — Only one missed game in seven straight regular season

>> Continue Reading

9:48 pm
March 28, 2008


Tavaner

Moderator

posts 8586

2

In re-draft and keeper formats he’s my #2. Smitty raises legit points about his carries and age but the OL is still strong and Rivers earned major respect for what he did playing in the AFC title game. If anything his receptions out of the backfield may be up early in the season, as well as Gates numbers. The offense is too good to be exploited by 8 man fronts and WR screens should take care that Rivers manages the games at least till mid-season.

Until I see a fall off in play he’s the #2…and I don’t expect to see that this year.

In dynasty play, Smitty’s advice is how I’d play it as well. He could carry you to your playoff final’s or give you a bonanza in players + picks from the owner of a teamthatisthisclose.

10:51 pm
March 28, 2008


TT5

Rookie

posts 165

3

Dude, I won in dramatic fashion this year and came in second (with a massive point lead) in 06 and rode LaDanian both years. I'm in a 3 man keeper league. With a crucial mid-season trade I ended up with these keeper options: LT, Westy, R. Moss, F. Gore, Jones-Drew, and M. Turner. I'm not even hesitating to keep LT. As far as I'm concerned LT has shown he can play through pain (your not an NFL RB for 7 years and not get knicked up). You all may want to risk dealing him, for more widespread value. However in my FF experience you have to have a stud RB to win a title. No better chance at a stud than LT.

11:20 pm
March 28, 2008


rotobradley

Elite User

Kansas City, MO

posts 1835

4

tolleteam5 said:

Dude, I won in dramatic fashion this year and came in second (with a massive point lead) in 06 and rode LaDanian both years. I'm in a 3 man keeper league. With a crucial mid-season trade I ended up with these keeper options: LT, Westy, R. Moss, F. Gore, Jones-Drew, and M. Turner. I'm not even hesitating to keep LT. As far as I'm concerned LT has shown he can play through pain (your not an NFL RB for 7 years and not get knicked up). You all may want to risk dealing him, for more widespread value. However in my FF experience you have to have a stud RB to win a title. No better chance at a stud than LT.


welcome tolleteam5! I agree he has always been a stud but I do believe his ride is coming to and end. It may not be this year but I believe he will start seeing a significant increase in numbers over the next two seasons. Because of this I would trade him but who knows I could be completely wrong. Just my opinion.

11:32 pm
March 28, 2008


Tavaner

Moderator

posts 8586

5

Glad to have you join us tolleteam!! Looking forward to seeing you on the boards!

11:36 pm
March 28, 2008


TT5

Rookie

posts 165

6

Thanks! Definitely will be back…I Absolutely LOVE this sight! As a fantasy football specialist (don't care about other Fantasy sports) I am a Huge fan. I recommend it to everyone NOT in my FF leagues! Let me know if there's a more concrete way to support. Thanks for all the work and conversation!

Now I'm curious what everyone else thinks of LT. Even in a redraft he's still my #1. AP is every bit as much of a injury risk.

11:54 pm
March 28, 2008


X

Moderator

posts 5322

7

tolleteam5 said:

Thanks! Definitely will be back…I Absolutely LOVE this sight! As a fantasy football specialist (don't care about other Fantasy sports) I am a Huge fan. I recommend it to everyone NOT in my FF leagues! Let me know if there's a more concrete way to support. Thanks for all the work and conversation!

Now I'm curious what everyone else thinks of LT. Even in a redraft he's still my #1. AP is every bit as much of a injury risk.


In a redraft league w/PPR, I go LT, otherwise I go AP. LT is no lower than #2 for me in redraft.

12:32 am
March 29, 2008


packerbacker

Elite User

posts 609

8

Smitty makes a good points on both sides for LT. I still think he is the #2 in any format. The offense is built to get him the ball and I expect to see great numbers out of him again this year. I think if he gets dinged up again or doesnt fully recover, you could start to slide him down but until then, he has to be #2 behind AP.

12:41 am
March 29, 2008


TT5

Rookie

posts 165

9

Honestly who could you have the guts to draft before LT? AP ok…SJax maybe who else?

4:27 am
March 29, 2008


Smitty

Admin

Arizona

posts 5901

10

This is a great topic and will be all off-season long! Good points everyone. Welcome to the Forums, tolleteam5 !

11:14 am
March 29, 2008


lgiljr

Stud

posts 225

11

Smitty nailed this one with his advice…


If I'm in the “Win Now Mode” and have LT on my roster, he's great building block… If he's not on my roster, I'd be targeting him.


If I'm in the “Rebuilding Mode” I'd hold on to him until the season starts and then hang him out as “trade bait”. At this point I think you'll get fair value for him.


Great topic!

2:21 pm
March 29, 2008


Jaysports

Elite User

Denver, CO

posts 596

12

If you are in a pure dynasty league this is definitely the year to move him before it's too late. I don't care if I have a shot at winning it all this year, I'll find a deal that will also allow me to compete for the title while still getting younger. LT2 will not have the same value next year no matter what he does this year IMO. LT will be 29 by the start of the season. TRADE NOW or by mid-season…..just be glad you had him for his glory years. It's like the stock market, know when to get out before it's too late. Trade for someone on the rise like Lynch and some other players or picks along with the deal.

8:20 pm
March 29, 2008


packerbacker

Elite User

posts 609

13

Jay… have to disagree with you. I think believe the upside fot LT the next few years is still to high. You will be hard pressed to get equal value for him. You are right, it's like the stock market, people are irrational and will pay to much for him when the value isnt there. In the meantime, I would ride him to a championship this year.

9:51 pm
March 29, 2008


Jaysports

Elite User

Denver, CO

posts 596

14

packerbacker said:

Jay… have to disagree with you. I think believe the upside fot LT the next few years is still to high. You will be hard pressed to get equal value for him. You are right, it's like the stock market, people are irrational and will pay to much for him when the value isnt there. In the meantime, I would ride him to a championship this year.


That's the beauty about opinions, everyone is allowed to have one. After this season, LT will be 30 and you'll be hard-pressed to get the same value that you could right now if you are in a good league where dynasty owners know the value of age. You are playing russion-roulette with your dynasty team if you wait. I would watch the first 4 or 5 games of this next season to see what good young studs are playing very well and try and move LT to that owner. He has soooo many miles on those tires, and he's ready for a big-time injury IMO.


Yeah, you could also hold on to him for a run at your league championship, but you run the risk of being left with a bad exit strategy due to injuries or owners not wanting to overpay for a aging 30+ RB. He could very well have 3 solid years left, but is that the risk you want to take with your team based on what you've seen with older backs throughout fantasy history (Faulk, Holmes, Edge, Alexander). We still don't even know how he'll return after that knee injury in the playoffs last year. Proceed at your own risk.

10:46 pm
March 29, 2008


craphonso

Elite User

posts 1307

15

I am pretty pro LT right now and agree with just about all of the article.


From what I've been reading around here and finding out in my leagues though many are down on LT and LT owners are finding it extremely difficult to find what I percieve as close to fair value for him at the present time.


From a dynasty perspective I would ride him this year and trade him if somehow you are out of it during the season.

11:59 pm
March 29, 2008


haimez40

Hall of Fame

posts 2076

16

Way I look at it you got the #2 pick in any league and LT is there you have to take him. His value and name are to much. If you really don't care for him, draft him and pull off some obnoxious trade because his name alone still brings major talent. He is too solid and valuable to pass up for just another player. There really isn't anybody besides AP that is close in my opinion on a consistency stand point.


I was one of the few people who looked down on LT last year and thought he would get injured and Turner would ball, but never happened. LT is just a freak. I know one of these days he will fail, but you just can't count on it. He has been too solid. As much as I don't like him cause only one person gets him in a league the guy value is top notch in almost any league.


5:26 am
March 31, 2008


Smitty

Admin

Arizona

posts 5901

17

Really, it all comes down to waiting.


If you do want to trade L.T…. wait! His schedule, and seeing him on the field… both will increase his value again to the point where you can trade him for quite a bit.


If you trade him now, you're selling right before the up-and-down stock goes right back up due to the L.T. tax cut.


Waiting is the best option by far, with only a freak off-season injury (or aggravation of his current injury) standing in his way of seeing increased value after the season begins.

5:30 pm
March 31, 2008


a005511

Rookie

posts 2

18

Just traded for LT in a PPR Dynasty league to win now and I believe for the next couple years. Gore, Holt, Julius Jones, Ginn for LT, Andre Johnson, Jordan, Engram. Needed a Number 4 receiver and Engram fills that position. Jorjan is a big ? mark but may get a couple good games out of him if needed but also have Westbrook and White. . To me LT and AJ are upgrades though LT may only have a couple good years left. Hated to part with Gore. Holt may have as good as year as AJ but youth is on AJ's side.

5:50 pm
March 31, 2008


eckdan

Stud

posts 295

19

IM trying like hell to get him in both my 3 player keepr and a full dynasty league

he faces the easiest run schedule in the league and should one again top 20 TD's and 2000 total yds. if you think he is fading after this season when his schedule could get toguher he will be coming off of a monster year and you could easily trade him away


ill take him, pair him with Adrian peterson who i have in both of my leagues and ill win, then trade LT for depth soemwhere else

7:05 pm
March 31, 2008


rotobradley

Elite User

Kansas City, MO

posts 1835

20

a005511 said:

Just traded for LT in a PPR Dynasty league to win now and I believe for the next couple years. Gore, Holt, Julius Jones, Ginn for LT, Andre Johnson, Jordan, Engram. Needed a Number 4 receiver and Engram fills that position. Jorjan is a big ? mark but may get a couple good games out of him if needed but also have Westbrook and White. . To me LT and AJ are upgrades though LT may only have a couple good years left. Hated to part with Gore. Holt may have as good as year as AJ but youth is on AJ's side.


Welcome a005511!! At least you were able to get rid of Holt in the process. I think Holt's best days are definitely behind him.

 

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