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FFX: Fantasy Football Dilemma: Tomlinson

UserPost

5:49 pm
March 31, 2008


Jaysports

Denver, CO

Elite User

posts 1138

My last comment, because I am obviously in the minority on trading LT while you can get the most for him. I just see it as a lose-lose situation if you wait any longer than mid-season. People are already whispering about the health concerns with LT due to the workload he's carried over his career so far. You look at the fast decline amongst some of the greatest fantasy running backs of all time. If he doesn't put up atleast $1,700 all-purpose yards and 15-TDs, then people will say he's on the decline. If he gets injured, then you obviously won't get the same return on your investment than you could now or 5 weeks into the season. Best case scenario is that he out-performs last year's numbers, but he's also a year older at the beginning of the 2009 season where people will be horrified to give up a great deal for a great back that is over the age of 30. I'm not saying trade him right this minute, but I do feel that if you don't unload him by the end of the '08 season you won't nearly as much for him as you could right now or mid-way through the season. This is only for pure dynasty. Re-draft, I would take him #2 all day long. Keeper league, I would take him #2 as well due to being to keep different keepers once he's declined or been injured. JMO.

12-team Dynasty 1=Rodgers/Leinart/AP/CJ3/R.Rice/D.Brown/AJ/VJax/Crabs/Doucett/EBennett/Dallas C./Celek/Pitt D
10-team Dynasty 2=Rodgers/Freeman/MJD/Mendy/JStewy/M.Bush/Fitz/Austin/Marshall/JNelson/ChazS/JMorgan/Gates/Cooley/Philly D

6:54 pm
March 31, 2008


BrainBucket

Elite User

posts 1471

finally get to chime in – the site was uber-slow today at work . .

I disagree with you Jay, IF you have the chance to win now, why would you trade LT? Yea he would be worth less after the season – maybe. But it is NOT the stock market, the goal here is to win. I'd rather win once and then rebuild as opposed to rebuilding eveery year for a possible run in the future. If you go by that theory you'll never win; tomorrow is always a day away.

I traded ny future (fitz, turner, MJD) last season for LT and got the trophy, I would do it again in a heartbeat!

QB: A Rodgers, B Roethlisberger, B Quinn RB: M Lynch, F Jackson, M Bush, R Bush, J Charles, G Coffee WR: V Jackson, S Holmes, P Harvin, S Breaston, D Avery, L Murphy TE: H Miller, V Davis, J Finley K: D Akers T: Bears

10:37 pm
March 31, 2008


Jaysports

Denver, CO

Elite User

posts 1138

BrainBucket said:

finally get to chime in – the site was uber-slow today at work . .

I disagree with you Jay, IF you have the chance to win now, why would you trade LT? Yea he would be worth less after the season – maybe. But it is NOT the stock market, the goal here is to win. I'd rather win once and then rebuild as opposed to rebuilding eveery year for a possible run in the future. If you go by that theory you'll never win; tomorrow is always a day away.

I traded ny future (fitz, turner, MJD) last season for LT and got the trophy, I would do it again in a heartbeat!


You're right, I may be playing it safe here. But, if I have LT, then I'm assuming I had him for his huge run of dominance over the last 3-4 years. If that's the case, I'm ok giving him up 1-year early to make sure I don't have to have any sort of rebuilding mode. I'd rather re-load, I'm pretty sure you can move LT for a more than fair offer. I don't have him in any of my dynasty leagues, so maybe I'm wrong on that. LT owners that have been listening to offers this offseason could probably give us some better insight on that though. I just moved Westbrook who I consider to be in the same situation as LT and I got Randy Moss (hopefully 3-4 great years left), Brandon Jacobs (moved in a deal for Lynch, not sold on Jacobs staying healthy), Travis Henry and Donald Lee (throw in as my backup TE) for Westy (29) and Driver (definitely declining with age and QB). I thought that I got a great value for Westy, which is what I would expect from LT. If I acquired LT last year and won the title, maybe I would get a little greedy this year and stick out while trying for the repeat. I guess it just depends on the owner and his team needs. All great points, it's been a fun debate none the less though.

12-team Dynasty 1=Rodgers/Leinart/AP/CJ3/R.Rice/D.Brown/AJ/VJax/Crabs/Doucett/EBennett/Dallas C./Celek/Pitt D
10-team Dynasty 2=Rodgers/Freeman/MJD/Mendy/JStewy/M.Bush/Fitz/Austin/Marshall/JNelson/ChazS/JMorgan/Gates/Cooley/Philly D

10:47 pm
March 31, 2008


Hambone

Ontario

Hall of Fame

posts 2347

In my opinion, you don't move LT unless you're getting fantabulous value for him. Why would you move a guy who has the best SOS for this next year, unless your're getting someone in return that you can truly believe in? Who the hell are you going to replace him with? Just sayin'

Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year. ~ Sparky Anderson

8:51 am
April 1, 2008


a005511

Rookie

posts 15

I have been close(best record) in one pure dynasty league to winning the title but just can't get it. Traded for LT and AJ and gave up Gore, Holt and Julius Jones. Also, traded for Westbrook and gave up Parker and a 1.10 rookie draft pick. Both trades had other minor players invloved. I want to win now and am willing to rebuild next year or hopefully in two years. Why just come in as a runnerup this year and future years when you can make trades that give you a great chance to win this year.

10:53 pm
April 1, 2008


TT5

Stud

posts 451

Yeah I'm a win now guy. I've won my most competitive league (3 player keeper) last year (4th title in 9 yrs).

In a 3 man keeper league you must consider the future with keepers and draft choices.

I will consider dealing LT after the fantasy draft in August but only for some multiple young talent (Lynch, Addai, Gore, etc). But the reality is I'm not sure there's a deal, I can get, thats worth it. My competitors are smart. AP and SJax owners are not giving me something else significant with them. Even LJ owner knows his man has a chance to do just as well as LT. AND those boys with the young talent know that they can give up too much in additional good players when they may have the future LT.

So 2 Questions for you (in order of importance)…

1) Those of you who don't have LT, based on your roster from last year, WHO / HOW MUCH WOULD YOU GIVE UP (on the high end) TO GET HIM?

2) Which 3 would you keep? L. Tomlinson, B. Westbrook, R. Moss, F. Gore, M. Jones-Drew, M. Turner (1rb, 1wr, 3swing lineup)

3:44 pm
April 5, 2008


Smitty

Arizona

Admin

posts 7821

Again, I say remember two important things…

1) You can always wait to deal LT… one or two insane games (especially with his rushing schedule) will make those "win now" teams drool for the chance to trade for that current title which is in reach

2) LT is not done yet… I'll consider talking about this next off-season, but if you can win now, you roll with LT IMO (unless you can deal him for AP, I see no reason to trade in the "now")

4:15 pm
April 5, 2008


MrMarbles

Ontario, Canada

Hall of Fame

posts 3522

tolleteam5 said:

1) Those of you who don't have LT, based on your roster from last year, WHO / HOW MUCH WOULD YOU GIVE UP (on the high end) TO GET HIM?

2) Which 3 would you keep? L. Tomlinson, B. Westbrook, R. Moss, F. Gore, M. Jones-Drew, M. Turner (1rb, 1wr, 3swing lineup)


1) On the high end if I really wanted LT I would give up a MJD type plus a tier 1 WR….But that's a really tough question…not to bail out on it, but it would depend what the LT owner had/needed and what I hav to offer. I for one would not deal for him until the season anyways. If I don't have him I wait to see where my team shakes out before I deal the future for him. I would consider it a few weeks before the deadline and if in contention I'd have no problem throwing in my 1st round pick, because It'd be low.

2) I treat those leagues (3 keepers) pretty much as redrafts. I am in a couple where we don't keep enough to "build" for the future. To me this one is a no brainer. I'd go LT, Westy and Moss.

5:04 pm
April 5, 2008


canopener

boston

Elite User

posts 805

I agree with those keepers.

I am a "selling 1 year too early is better than a year too late" kinda guy, but I agree that LT has so much value that it would be irresponsible to trade him unless you are getting a lot back. I would think something like Lynch and Andre Johnson, or something like that would be worth it. 2 players in the top 10 at their positions for LT sounds right to me.

I would prob not trade LT in a 3 man keeper league unless it was a straight up deal for Addai, SJAX, AP, or someone like that.

And that's only if you really think LT is going to be done soon and if you REALLY like the player you are getting in return. You just can't do it unless you think that the guy you are getting back will give you at least 3-4 years of top 5 stats. In those leagues you want to make sure your 3 keepers are true STUDS.

My style is impetuous. My defense is impregnable, and I'm just ferocious! -Mike Tyson

7:31 pm
April 5, 2008


Jaysports

Denver, CO

Elite User

posts 1138

canopener said:

I agree with those keepers.

I am a “selling 1 year too early is better than a year too late” kinda guy, but I agree that LT has so much value that it would be irresponsible to trade him unless you are getting a lot back. I would think something like Lynch and Andre Johnson, or something like that would be worth it. 2 players in the top 10 at their positions for LT sounds right to me.

I would prob not trade LT in a 3 man keeper league unless it was a straight up deal for Addai, SJAX, AP, or someone like that.

And that's only if you really think LT is going to be done soon and if you REALLY like the player you are getting in return. You just can't do it unless you think that the guy you are getting back will give you at least 3-4 years of top 5 stats. In those leagues you want to make sure your 3 keepers are true STUDS.


You hit the nail on the head, "selling 1 year too early is better than a year too late". I am still a firm believer that you will never get more value for LT after the midway point of the '08 NFL season. You've been warned. LOL. The rest of Canopener's last post was also 100% accurate IMO.

12-team Dynasty 1=Rodgers/Leinart/AP/CJ3/R.Rice/D.Brown/AJ/VJax/Crabs/Doucett/EBennett/Dallas C./Celek/Pitt D
10-team Dynasty 2=Rodgers/Freeman/MJD/Mendy/JStewy/M.Bush/Fitz/Austin/Marshall/JNelson/ChazS/JMorgan/Gates/Cooley/Philly D

8:53 pm
April 5, 2008


Smitty

Arizona

Admin

posts 7821

Jaysports said:

canopener said:

I agree with those keepers.

I am a “selling 1 year too early is better than a year too late” kinda guy, but I agree that LT has so much value that it would be irresponsible to trade him unless you are getting a lot back. I would think something like Lynch and Andre Johnson, or something like that would be worth it. 2 players in the top 10 at their positions for LT sounds right to me.

I would prob not trade LT in a 3 man keeper league unless it was a straight up deal for Addai, SJAX, AP, or someone like that.

And that's only if you really think LT is going to be done soon and if you REALLY like the player you are getting in return. You just can't do it unless you think that the guy you are getting back will give you at least 3-4 years of top 5 stats. In those leagues you want to make sure your 3 keepers are true STUDS.


You hit the nail on the head, “selling 1 year too early is better than a year too late”. I am still a firm believer that you will never get more value for LT after the midway point of the '08 NFL season. You've been warned. LOL. The rest of Canopener's last post was also 100% accurate IMO.


Yea, and this is the point of our Article, that trading LT during the season may be the best option for those NOT READY to win now. He should have some good games with will ease the minds of those possibly willing to overspend.



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