So I'm very close to choosing Fitz with #3 in a 10-team ppr dynasty startup… start 2 RB and 3WR.  Here are the jumbled thoughts for other potentials in my head:

Fitz – only 25, will be top notch with Warner and should still be fine post-Warner, though maybe not quite as dominant.  I need to start 3 WRs and if I pass on a WR in the first, there's a strong chance they are gone by  the time I pick again (since we start 3).

Forte – loved him last year in ppr, but I've seen players like McGahee, Maroney and Cadillac look like can't miss prospects after a breakout year and we all saw how that ended up.

MoJo – I don't think he'll fall to me, but he'd be a good option… although he hasn't seen the full workload yet.  What will that do to him over a full season or two?

CJ4.2 – He's another awesome player who is very smallish though and I fear he could break down and is more of a risky pick than Fitz

SJax – absolute beast and nice in ppr but the injuries are piling up.

WRs seem more dependable and stable over the long haul… and you REALLY don't want to miss on your first pick of a dynasty draft!!!  But can I really go Fitz with #3 over a RB? (seems to go against every mock I've seen)

I need your help!  thanks

Woodduck2003 said:

If you want Fitz that bad trade down in the draft.  Anytime you take a player too early it is not a good thing regardless of the round or player.  Take the top RB available and after the draft you can always look to trade to get Fitz.  In the 3rd slot you should be able to grab whichever RB you think is #3 (Turner/Forte/C.Johson/SJax or whoever) then in the 2nd and 3rd you can get a G.Jennings/M.Colston.  Both of those WRs are not far from Fitz but the RB you could get in the 2nd and 3rd are not close to the RB you can get with the #3. 

That being said if you really want Fitz and cant trade down then take him.  It is your team and no one really knows how the season will play out.  Personally, this year if I have an early pick 1-4 I am going RB/WR/WR then take a chance on my #2 RB in the 4th.  I just think the drop from #3 RB to the RB you get at #22 is much greater than the drop from Fitz to a Colston/White/Gennings type WR.

You bring up negatives about a few of the top RBs but the same could be said for Fitz.  I mean is is great with Warner there, but if Warner goes down he will not put up the same numbers.  Then he becomes very equal to the Gennings/White type WRs.  Warner is not the future and who knows what Leinart will bring.

Good luck and hope this helps.

Nice Wood… Took the words right out of my mouth… +1

Woodduck2003 said:

If you want Fitz that bad trade down in the draft.  Anytime you take a player too early it is not a good thing regardless of the round or player.  Take the top RB available and after the draft you can always look to trade to get Fitz.  In the 3rd slot you should be able to grab whichever RB you think is #3 (Turner/Forte/C.Johson/SJax or whoever) then in the 2nd and 3rd you can get a G.Jennings/M.Colston.  Both of those WRs are not far from Fitz but the RB you could get in the 2nd and 3rd are not close to the RB you can get with the #3. 

This is good advise and would be the smartest thing you can do. Think value, dont spend $50 for a $35 player. You will get either AP/MJD/Forte at 1.03 then go WR/WR with Colston/Jennings/White, which ever 2 are available.

Mike Ocherts said:

Nice Wood… Took the words right out of my mouth… +1

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in one sentence you just said….nice wood…and out of my mouth…what forum is this anyways…

I do not think it is a stretch to take Fitz at 1.3, so go with your gut.  Trading down, if you really want him, is a mistake.  You could trade down to #5 and he could go #4.  I've seen him go top 3 in more than one dynasty startups this year.

That said, I like ADP, MJD, and Forte as the top 3 picks in dynasty ppr startups this year.  #4 is Fitz for me, I personally wouldn't consider any of the other backs on the board over Fitz at #4….so in my eye's your one pick off Fitz value-wise.  To me, Jackson is not a guy I target in dynasty startups at all, and although I like CJ3, I like Fitz better.  

I'd roll with Forte but if you really want Fitz I'm not going to be the one to talk you off the #1 dynasty WR in a startup!

*Starts to talk… but then just hangs head in shame…*

FarFromHome said:

Mike Ocherts said:

Nice Wood… Took the words right out of my mouth… +1

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in one sentence you just said….nice wood…and out of my mouth…what forum is this anyways…

You think that's bad?  I struggle with dyslexia, and I read that sentence as “You took the nice wood right out of my mouth”…..

But I digress.  I think anything higher than 1.4 is a stretch for a PPR d-league startup.  I would consider taking him as high as 1.5 (behind Forte, MJD, ADP, CJ3….in that order).  I think with Forte you're getting the best PPR player you can.  I just don't think MJD's workload goes up all that much because Fragile has exited, but I think it'll be a lot harder for teams to put 8 in the box with Cutler tossing the rock instead of Orton.  Yeah, I said tossing the rock.  So what of it?

double post…or should i say…adding to my post count…id still prolly take a rb there

Mike Ocherts said:

*Starts to talk… but then just hangs head in shame…*

That's okay… Mike… your faux pas was hardly noticed… Can we begin calling you “Woody”?

Tavaner said:

Take an RB – great advice Woodduck2003, welcome to the forums.  

Some guys really need to get out.

Actually, Tav, we just need the season to start… SOON