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1:11 am July 1, 2009
| Smitty
| | Arizona | |
| Admin
| posts 7821 |
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Is Brian Westbrook Still A Stud?
Will Brian Westbrook crank out one more elite fantasy football season in 2009? Or, will the stud begin his fall from the elite, as he enters the 2009 NFL season at the dreaded age of 30?
It’s no secret that NFL running backs often fall off the face of the fantasy earth when they enter a season at 30 or older. On rare occasions 30 year-old running backs do dominate (Emmitt Smith, Thomas Jones, Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin), but for the most part, entering a season at 30 screams downfall. Looking for detailed research on this topic? If so, read our 30 Year-Old Running Backs: The Age Of Decline article.
So back to the first line in this article: Will Brian Westbrook crank out one more elite fantasy football season in 2009? I say yes — And no. Let me explain.
Westbrook has a few things …
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7:26 am July 1, 2009
| packerbacker
| | Green Bay, WI | |
| Elite User | posts 1555 |
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Love the information… problem is in my PPR leagues, the guy still put up ridiculous numbers last year and you cant get him for decent value to take the risk on the 30 year old.
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8:01 am July 1, 2009
| omahabrad
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| Elite User | posts 1135 |
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i'm going to have to disagree. Westy is an elite talent when on the feild and you won't have to worry about him the first 4 weeks of the season, if you're lucky, but after that he'll be listed as a "game time decision" for the rest of the year. That is just how Andy Reid does things when it comes to their playmakers. Then there is drafting him. If I have to ensure that I draft a RB's back up a round or two ealier than his adp, I lose the value that I gained when I drafted the starter a half round later than his adp.
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8:45 am July 1, 2009
| duffyworkit
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| Stud | posts 243 |
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omahabrad said:
i'm going to have to disagree. Westy is an elite talent when on the feild and you won't have to worry about him the first 4 weeks of the season, if you're lucky, but after that he'll be listed as a “game time decision” for the rest of the year. That is just how Andy Reid does things when it comes to their playmakers. Then there is drafting him. If I have to ensure that I draft a RB's back up a round or two ealier than his adp, I lose the value that I gained when I drafted the starter a half round later than his adp.
thats a great point man
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QB-Schaub, Palmer RB-Barber, Portis, K. Smith, Mendenhall, Greene WR-Jennings, Ocho, Manningham, Holt, Burleson, A. Gonzalez TE-Daniels
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9:37 am July 1, 2009
| kenstrong
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| Elite User | posts 936 |
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omahabrad said:
i'm going to have to disagree. Westy is an elite talent when on the feild and you won't have to worry about him the first 4 weeks of the season, if you're lucky, but after that he'll be listed as a “game time decision” for the rest of the year. That is just how Andy Reid does things when it comes to their playmakers. Then there is drafting him. If I have to ensure that I draft a RB's back up a round or two ealier than his adp, I lose the value that I gained when I drafted the starter a half round later than his adp.
I am not buying that, I think getting top 5 talent in the second round offsets any loss from takign a guy in the 7th instead of 8th. there's always one dicky owner who will grab your handcuffs early, thats possible, but usually most owners are still looking for their OWN starters through round 6-7, no one is going to be taking mccoy over moreno or wells
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10:15 am July 1, 2009
| omahabrad
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| Elite User | posts 1135 |
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What's to buy? If you've owned Westy before you know you will spend alot of time reading injury reports on him. And with the latest surgery on Westy and all the hype McCoy is getting you will have to be willing to grab him earlier than the other owners. we're pretty much talking draft strategy here and at 2.8 I'ld rather hope someone else falls to me or if they don't taking a Colston, Boldin, Steve Smith or Brady with the 2.8. They too, all have top 5 talent. Then with the 3.4 taking a Ronnie Brown or if you want to gamble taking Pierre Thomas as my RB2.(both on contract years)
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10:51 am July 1, 2009
| kenstrong
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| Elite User | posts 936 |
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I like those WRS you mention a lot, and I would take smith 2nd rnd no issue, but never over westy. he's been on the injury report for years, and the eagles schedule is much easier than last year when they faced the ravens, steelers etc in addition to the nfc east teams.
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5:38 pm July 1, 2009
| jamesmorgan222
| | Austin | |
| Elite User | posts 588 |
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man, i want to buy it. i just can't. i can't take the risk on people with bad knees. it could pan out well and be a great pick. more likely it will result in something mediocre that will be a headache all season (reading injury reports, trying to figure out which back will start, etc.).
i would rather invest in younger less proven talent with upside. people will make fun of you. i have been heckled during and after some drafts.
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6:11 pm July 1, 2009
| kenstrong
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| Elite User | posts 936 |
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jamesmorgan222 said:
man, i want to buy it. i just can't. i can't take the risk on people with bad knees. it could pan out well and be a great pick. more likely it will result in something mediocre that will be a headache all season (reading injury reports, trying to figure out which back will start, etc.).
i would rather invest in younger less proven talent with upside. people will make fun of you. i have been heckled during and after some drafts.
Hey, I hear you…sometimes it pans out and sometimes it doesn't.. but westbrook is a rare talent, a guy who can put up 200 total yards and 4 tds in a game … if I have to scramble a few games because he's hurt, I'll take it. maybe being a giants fan, the guy has smoked us so many times I am over rating him lol …but I dont see him as any more risky than SJax for instance, who everyone seems comfortable with…and again, this is all relative, I like him this year because his adp has dropped so low, I wouldn't take him third overall like he went last year, but as a #2 RB ?
as far as laughing, we've all done that at drafts and have it come back to haunt us…I remember an owner in one league who took Brady in the first round two years ago and we all Ho Ho Ho'd knowingly, only to watch the guy put up 40 points a game the whole season.
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8:46 pm July 1, 2009
| Smitty
| | Arizona | |
| Admin
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Great comments so far guys, even those of you that disagree. That's what this is all about.
As I point out in the article, given his lack of big carry seasons, I think Westy won't drop off in talent, he will just miss games because he is 30. So that means that when on the field he is a top 5-7 overall talent in 2009… when not on the field, McCoy is going to be a mini-Westy. Together you get dominate RB1 numbers, and that's only on 16 starts, not adding both their totals together… just using one at a time will give you dominate RB1 numbers IMO.
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2:19 am July 2, 2009
| Joe Divola
| | Beloit, WI | |
| Hall of Fame | posts 2034 |
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jamesmorgan222 said:
i would rather invest in younger less proven talent with upside. people will make fun of you. i have been heckled during and after some drafts.
I try to go this route as well. Last year in an inaugural dyansty draft I took Calvin Johnson be before Roy Williams in like the 4th round and the other owners at the draft went nuts, one guy even called me a F'ing Idiot. I just smiled and agreed and started planning my next pick….guess who had the last laugh heh
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