I'd also advise that you stay away from risky second-round runners, like Maroney, Jacobs, etc. I actually like Jones-Drew, despite the risk there, but one could argue stay away from him until the third (where he would all of the sudden have great draft-value).

Passing on having having at least 2RBs in the first three rounds could end up being a disaster.

Again, using the DRAFT SIMULATOR

… you can still land these type of WRs in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds… so why take the gamble in drafting a back that you may not like as much in that third or 4th vs that 2nd?
3: Smith, Steve (WR)
4: Holt, Torry (WR)
5: Boldin, Anquan (WR)

… to me, it's a no brainer. Unless Moss or Brady fell way too far in the second, I go RB/RB almost every single draft!

If you could convince me that my boy Michael Turner would last to the third-round (once signed, i know he may last that far right now)… then and only then would I consider passing on a back in the 2nd.

The only other exception, I guess, would be if I had a #23 or #24 pick in the 2nd-round in a 12 team draft… because my 3rd pick is back to back basically, it doesn't matter if you go RB,WR,RB or RB,RB,WR at that point…

That's me, anyway..

Nice.

2007 is only going to produce some more myths!

kethnaab said:

smitty

great point regarding who is still available in the 4th-5th rounds. I’d be quite happy if I ended up with a roster of WRs like that. I just wonder if this will be the year that people decide NOT to go RB crazy during the draft. I mean, the chances that QBs are going to be chosen with 1st round draft picks is getting pretty high. The talk (mythical or not) about RBBC and QB production is everywhere. Of course the art of the draft is getting the best value for your picks while filling your roster with production and depth. A large part of this is trying to figure out where OTHERS are going to pick and who OTHERS value.

How many AD owners are going to end up drafting Chester Taylor 3 rounds earlier than normal, simply because they’re afraid to lose their handcuff? You’d better believe that if you draft AD, I’m going to try to snatch him up a round early just so I can maneuver for a trade with you.

I also check some of the other sites for their mock drafts, and WRs seem to be flying out the door. People are drafting QBs and 2 WRs before they snatch up 2 RBs. Course, I think that’s nuts, but that’s just me. With the tendency toward more passing, tighter restrictions on DBs, looser restrictions on OL holding….the QBs benefit but they have to throw the ball to somebody.

Of course, the rookie draft will really affect my thinking regarding who’s available. I guess it all depends upon how confident one is with their “sleepers” at both WR and RB

Anyway, I’m just babbling. I’m sure I’ll change my tune 3 or 4 more times and probably end up going RB/RB/WR but who knows.

Well, I just recommend you continue to Mock Draft with our Simulator before you commit to one strategy, even the one I'm suggesting.

Again, everyone has strengths. If you're the king of finding a RB2 through a combination of late round drafting, go with your strength… but to abandon RBs early just because of last year's disaster list of busts, I just have to jump in and shed some light on that.

As for your point about WRs going early, thus maybe making you think you should go RB later because they will be there… it probably will be pretty clear what a draft will look like to a large degree (ADPs). Know your average draft positions heading into a draft and you shouldn't be thrown off too much.

Even if WRs go early, though, that doesn't mean you should go WR too. In fact, if people freak out and more WRs are taken in the 2nd round than previous years, this is EVEN MORE OF A REASON to go RB/RB… because you will be KILLING EVERYONE on draft value. If you land a RB at #18 that should go at #12 (like, let's say Lynch or Barber or McGahee)…. you're actually sitting better than if the usual # of WRs go in that 2nd-round.

No matter the flow, especially if WRs are flying off the board quickly, I go RB, RB.

Finally, keep in mind that there aren't 32 starting backs in this league… while the "every team is going RBBC fear" is another myth driven trend, each year there never are 32 starting RBs in the NFL, and certainly not even 28-30 real clear fantasy starters. This means that waiting is only putting you more at risk of having a thin backfield come mid-season, bye weeks, etc, etc. There are over 60 real quality WRs and a whole bunch of WR3s on NFL teams…

If you're very good at landing late runners, I still think it would be smart to go RB, RB… then use your drafted gems (that you will be grabbing late) to upgrade your WR spots in the early weeks of the fantasy season. RB depth never hurts, and you can often trade up later on and end up with a whole lot more in that starting line-up.

kethnaab said:

good points all, Smitty, especially the core basic precept of RB/RB/WR

12 teams, 2 RBs per team, that’s 24 RBs. There aren’t 24 quality RBs, but there sure as heck are 24 quality WRs

RB depth helps protect against injuries as well.

and yeah, I keep mock drafting. If I can land a guy like MBIII at pick 18, that’s about nuts. I wouldn’t pass that up.

so…when’s 2008 football season start again? :p

Like I've said, you can draft 3 straight WRs and still win a league if you somehow pick up next year's Ryan Grant or Ernest Graham. That is the nature of the sport, but just always remember you can still pick up next year's Ryan Grant or Ernest Graham even if you go RB, RB …. and you can still, with that approach, have WRs close to those 3 that you would have drafted in the first three rounds (because of the depth at the position this year)… but you'd have stronger runners and more trade bait… and depth to weather through it all… you are on your way to domination!

Keep it up, kethnaab. Mock away. You're attacking it from all angles and that's gonna allow you to adapt well to any draft flow. You can win with any strategy if you make the right moves, it just comes down to what is the easiest and most proven path to victory mixed in with what you do best draft-wise.