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1:17 am
June 23, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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Our regular readers know that “Bold Is How We Roll” here at Fantasy Football Xtreme. How bold can we get? How about this:
Ronnie Brown will finish as a top 8 fantasy running back in 2009!
Where Should Fantasy Owners Take Ronnie Brown In 2009?
Does this mean that fantasy owners should reach for the Dolphins running back come August and grab the guy in the top 10-15 overall? Absolutely NOT. Now, that being said, we do have Brown slotted at 2.08 in our 2009 Fantasy Football Mock Draft in June, but that’s a pure FFX staff mock and we’re presenting how we rank the 2009 talent — He will almost certainly fall in most everyone’s upcoming August draft!
Brown’s current ADP is in the third- to fourth-round range (between 3.04 and 4.04). Reaching a few slots to ensure that you land him is fine, but let him fall into that third-round and take full advantage of that draft value. I have a handful of “must-have” players this year given their 2009 fantasy football draft values and Brown is at the very top of my list.
Why Do We Believe In Ronnie Brown?
Not everyone here at FFX agrees with my Brown predictions, but…
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Read original  blog post
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4:41 am
June 23, 2009
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Tavaner
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…if I had any hair, I'd pull it out… ;)
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5:18 am
June 23, 2009
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X
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Smitty said:
Not everyone here at FFX agrees with my Brown predictions, but…
Why are you looking at me when you say that? LOL…
He can certainly be argued either way, but I still think Brown is going too high in drafts and I envision him more of a RB3 than RB2. When you take a hard look at his stats they are pretty pedestrian beyond that 7 game stretch in 2007, and Cam is not there anymore.
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6:38 am
June 23, 2009
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JRMRRT
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| Hall of Fame | posts 4168 |
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(Rotoworld) Ronnie Brown reportedly looked "fit, faster than ever and like he should be the team's featured back" during Dolphins OTAs. Analysis: He also "consistently beat the defense to the outside corner," apparently regaining his 4.4 speed over a full year removed from ACL surgery. Brown looks poised to surpass his previous career high of 241 carries this season.
This report gets me pretty siked knowing that I can land him in the 3rd round.
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12 team, full dynasty: Schaub, Stafford, Henne, AP, J Stew, Mendy, Chester, G Johnson, F Summers, AJ, Marshall, Roddy, Colston, Manningham, Jacoby Jones, Robiskie
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10:00 am
June 23, 2009
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Scorpion
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He's worth a 3rd round because of his upside, I agree. My biggest problem with the guy is that he only rushed for over 100 yards 3 times in 2008. It was feast or famine with the guy. He's going to be a RB#2, (high end #2, but not a #1). He had 11 games in which he rushed for less than 60. If there's a guy like P.Thomas or K.Moreno in the 3rd round, I'd probably go that route instead of the Miami committee. The good news is that Miami looks good on Defense IMO, which should keep the score low, and R.Brown running for possibly 300 carries. It's good insight to own R.Brown, but I'm afraid his value is too high for the risk involved. I think he's a 4th rounder, for now. Grabbing receiver's like G.Jennings or W.Welker to me would pay off better than grabbing Brown early.
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11:38 am
June 23, 2009
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Freak Show
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| Elite User | posts 685 |
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I'm as big on Ronnie Brown as I am LJ, LT2, Portis, Addai, MacGahee, Maroney. While Brown is not in the age catagory of some of the players listed, I'd rather take a shot at those players late, than Ronnie Brown in the 3rd. LT2 will definatly be better in redraft this year, than Brown.
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1:49 pm
June 23, 2009
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kenstrong
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| Elite User | posts 936 |
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smitty the last two years you gsve me Adrian Peterson as a rookie and Michael Turner ( both in the 5th rnd of a 12 teamer ) so i'll take your word for it this year…Browns movin up my charts
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7:12 pm
June 23, 2009
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seaney
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Ronnie was a monster before ripping up that knee 2 years ago! Wasn't he up near the top of scoring for all players prior to the injury? I think U could get nice RB2 value outta him in the late 2nd, or early 3rd!
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1:03 am
June 24, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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seaney said:
Ronnie was a monster before ripping up that knee 2 years ago! Wasn't he up near the top of scoring for all players prior to the injury? I think U could get nice RB2 value outta him in the late 2nd, or early 3rd!
Yea, the article talks about how Brown was as good as ADP that year.
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9:34 am
June 24, 2009
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madflipper
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Yeah, Smitty was dead on with AP and Turner, but there were the duds named Braylon "Brick Hands" Edwards and Santonio Holmes. I know, you can't get em right all the time, but I do like Ronnie Brown this year.
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You play to win the game! – Herm Edwards
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10:56 am
June 24, 2009
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Gambler
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| Hall of Fame | posts 2700 |
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Anyone who drafts Brown high will be hating themselves come playoff time …again.
Get back to the basics guys. Don't forget this is Ronnie Brown. He can't do a complete season as a feature back. He just can't. Look back over his entire NFL career and then back into college. He simply can't handle a full load and has proven that for a decade now without exception. Don't get burned on the Ronnie Brown hype yet again.
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1:14 pm
June 24, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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Gambler said:
Anyone who drafts Brown high will be hating themselves come playoff time …again.
Get back to the basics guys. Don't forget this is Ronnie Brown. He can't do a complete season as a feature back. He just can't. Look back over his entire NFL career and then back into college. He simply can't handle a full load and has proven that for a decade now without exception. Don't get burned on the Ronnie Brown hype yet again.
Keep in mind Gambler that this article tells fantasy owners not to use a "high" draft pick on Brown. That's the point of it. He is cheap and the upside far outweighs a late third or early fourth round pick. And he played all 16 games last year, the year he came back from injury (a year players will most likely have swelling and issues from the recovery).
It can be debated my man, you could be right, but I just wanted to clear up that if you read the article, it doesn't recommend anyone burning a high pick on him.
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3:44 pm
June 24, 2009
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AllDay028
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love me some ROnnie Brown in 2009. Gotta know when to buy low. Gotta know when to project guys gonna have a career breakout year. This is it for Ronnie. Will outperform D-Will, Slaton, Turner etc etc.
edited to add: 0 Ronnie Brown in 2008 in dynasty leagues to 5 in 2009 (3 via trades, 2 from startups)
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4:50 pm
June 24, 2009
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hawk12
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I've had Ronnie in my only dynasty for 3 years, he was top scored in PPR when his ACL went. I've been thinking this would be his year since his ACL in mid 2007, he responded well last year, and what I'm reading he's BACK… I'm hoping he explodes for most of the season, at which point I might consider trading a 28 year old that will be turning 29 next year. Dynasty value type deal for younger player/picks…
He's a good value now to aquire, and if he explodes the way I think, and Smitty seems to be staking standing home run rep on him this year… He'll be a gold mine for a trade by week 10!
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12 Team PPR Dynasty QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex
Brees MJD R Brown R Grant AJ Steve Smith Braylon L Moore D Bess O Daniels
10 Team (keep 2)QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE
2008 – Peyton Turner Gore DeAngelo Calvin Steve Smith Coles D Clark
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8:35 pm
June 24, 2009
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viktorz
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Interesting, WHY do you think Brown is cheap at this moment ? I saw him drafted in 2 round (redraft) and in Dynasty he gone before K,Smith, D.Mac ,Wells and Moreno .
I like the way you support GOOD players Smitty, but Brown and his contract year a HOT topic everywhere.
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10:04 pm
June 24, 2009
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Gambler
| | Pacific NW | |
| Hall of Fame | posts 2700 |
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Smitty said:
Gambler said:
Anyone who drafts Brown high will be hating themselves come playoff time …again.
Get back to the basics guys. Don't forget this is Ronnie Brown. He can't do a complete season as a feature back. He just can't. Look back over his entire NFL career and then back into college. He simply can't handle a full load and has proven that for a decade now without exception. Don't get burned on the Ronnie Brown hype yet again.
Keep in mind Gambler that this article tells fantasy owners not to use a “high” draft pick on Brown. That's the point of it. He is cheap and the upside far outweighs a late third or early fourth round pick. And he played all 16 games last year, the year he came back from injury (a year players will most likely have swelling and issues from the recovery).
It can be debated my man, you could be right, but I just wanted to clear up that if you read the article, it doesn't recommend anyone burning a high pick on him.
Yeah…I probably came on too strong there. I just hate seeing guys here pick up the new hype on brown and think they are getting a steal when all he's ever done is let his owners down. Besides the fact he's never had a good NFL season, let me go ahead and post his rushing stats the last 6 weeks of last season. The back end of the season usually gives us a glimpse of what a runner might be expected to do heading into the following season. Keep in mind he was 100% healthy then and many games removed from injury.
last 6….
NE 37 yards
@STL 48 yards (wasn't aware this team had a defense to be honest)
@BUF 70 yards
SF 67 yard
@KC 32 yards (in all honesty, I could have run for more vs KC)
@NYJ 57 yards
…please remember folks this is the guy you are getting when you put your faith in Ron Brown. I only say this over and over because this is my home site and I hate seing you guys get burned year after year. Every year people jump on his bandwagon, and every year I try to knock some sense back into folks. I also say the exact same thing for Lee Evans and Vernon Davis.
If you can get him late as a backup then sure take a shot in the dark on him. If you have to burn a "starter" slot on him then pass and let some other owner go down with this ship.
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10:21 pm
June 24, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
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Gambler said:
Smitty said:
Gambler said:
Anyone who drafts Brown high will be hating themselves come playoff time …again.
Get back to the basics guys. Don't forget this is Ronnie Brown. He can't do a complete season as a feature back. He just can't. Look back over his entire NFL career and then back into college. He simply can't handle a full load and has proven that for a decade now without exception. Don't get burned on the Ronnie Brown hype yet again.
Keep in mind Gambler that this article tells fantasy owners not to use a “high” draft pick on Brown. That's the point of it. He is cheap and the upside far outweighs a late third or early fourth round pick. And he played all 16 games last year, the year he came back from injury (a year players will most likely have swelling and issues from the recovery).
It can be debated my man, you could be right, but I just wanted to clear up that if you read the article, it doesn't recommend anyone burning a high pick on him.
Yeah…I probably came on too strong there. I just hate seeing guys here pick up the new hype on brown and think they are getting a steal when all he's ever done is let his owners down. Besides the fact he's never had a good NFL season, let me go ahead and post his rushing stats the last 6 weeks of last season. The back end of the season usually gives us a glimpse of what a runner might be expected to do heading into the following season. Keep in mind he was 100% healthy then and many games removed from injury.
last 6….
NE 37 yards
@STL 48 yards (wasn't aware this team had a defense to be honest)
@BUF 70 yards
SF 67 yard
@KC 32 yards (in all honesty, I could have run for more vs KC)
@NYJ 57 yards
…please remember folks this is the guy you are getting when you put your faith in Ron Brown. I only say this over and over because this is my home site and I hate seing you guys get burned year after year. Every year people jump on his bandwagon, and every year I try to knock some sense back into folks. I also say the exact same thing for Lee Evans and Vernon Davis.
If you can get him late as a backup then sure take a shot in the dark on him. If you have to burn a “starter” slot on him then pass and let some other owner go down with this ship.
I love a good debate, so keep it coming. It can be debated, that's for sure! That's why it's bold and not a "no brainer" article ;)
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10:24 pm
June 24, 2009
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Smitty
| | Arizona | |
| Admin
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viktorz said:
Interesting, WHY do you think Brown is cheap at this moment ? I saw him drafted in 2 round (redraft) and in Dynasty he gone before K,Smith, D.Mac ,Wells and Moreno .
I like the way you support GOOD players Smitty, but Brown and his contract year a HOT topic everywhere.
You may have seen him go high in a draft or two, but that's not a good sample. His ADP is. That said, Viktorz, if your group loves the guy, or if you're near MIA, that's gonna happen and in that case I guess let everyone reach for him. His ADP is at least in the third right now, though. ADP is where it's at, that's the best judge for where a player is going to go, don't use just one draft you've seen (unless again there is a reason your crew is high on him, like if in Miami :) )
Great topic to bring up, Viktorz, because some leagues are going to jump on him and it's a bit confusing when the ADPs suggest different.
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6:29 pm
June 25, 2009
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jamesmorgan222
| | Austin | |
| Elite User | posts 588 |
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i want to buy it, but i just can't. i'm with gambler, i just don't see why people keep buying this guy. in the area where he is being drafted, there are many other backs i'd rather have. four years in the league and he has amassed seasons of 207, 241, 119, and 214 carries. the guy has broken 1000 yards once.
if anything, ronnie brown has proved to me he can have big games but can't handle the rock for an extended amount of carries. i like him and love to see it happen though.
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7:09 pm
June 25, 2009
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MrMarbles
| | Ontario, Canada | |
| Hall of Fame | posts 3522 |
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I don't know about this one. I'm with Gambler for the most part. If I could get him late I'd take a shot, but not too early. His only good games last year came when they introduced the wildcat and defenses were getting used to the new wrinkle, once they got accustomed to it, his numbers really suffered.
I also hesitate due to the torn ACL. I don't have concrete evidence to back it up, but I find that RBs rarely return pre-injury form when they tear their ACLs. Deuce McAllister, Edge are a couple who come to mind off the top of my head.
Some of the things I do think are positive for Brown are an improving O Line, solid coaching staff and improving overall team.
It would really depend on where I could get him as to whether I'd draft him or not
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